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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #661 (permalink)
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A MARKET DANGEROUS TO BUY ?

Market opened with a small downard gap and reactive Sellers pushed the market down, making a selling tail from 143.99 to 143.89. Market then ranged between 143.69 (a shade below the lower Friday's value range) and 143.89 (the selling tail downard limit). Early afternoon Sellers pushed harder and LoD (143.59) was reached

Upon released of a very disapointing ISM data which sent stocks heavily down, Buyers took the lead and the Bund market went over last week HoW and ended at 144.28 after paying 144.32 during the night session.

At 143.75, POC is surpinsingly lower than Monday and value is concentrated between 143.65 and 144.05, with very few volume traded above 144.05, giving the day a "d" shape.


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Result is a green candle with a rather small true corpse and a long lower shadow, almost a hammer.
Volume is much lower than the previous up days.
It is worth noting that on shorter maturities, such as SCHATZ, the daily candle is a doji hammer, forming a crowbar top with the previous candle.


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Kijun Sen is now at 144.30


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The former resistance oblique of the rising channel has become a support.

144.05, (former HoD and high end of today's value) is a first support, then 143.59 (LoD). Below there is 143.40 (weekly PP) and Kijun Sen 4H (143.30).
On the resistance side, above HoD (144.33), there is R1 (144.54) and then 145.09, (2013 top).

I think that Bund market is rather vulnerable if stocks stop to fall.

For selling, I would rather trade BOBL or even better SCHATZ.

Good Evening.

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  #662 (permalink)
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Hello!



My thoughts about FGBM shorting opportunities:

We have 3 day consolidation in 126,6...126,9 range. I plan to enter short if:

1. Market breaks down this range at H1 timeframe with good volume.
2. Market returns & tests low boundary of consolidation zone value area.
3. If market fails to hold this levels -> go short. Targets can be around 126,00.

Any suggestions?

Thanks!


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  #663 (permalink)
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CONSOLIDATION


Market opened with a small downard gap and almost immediately, incentive Sellers pushed prices down to a first low at 144.01 then further down to reach LoD (143.85) at 3.30 pm. Market then ranged between LoD and last week HoW (144.06) to end at 144.89, a shade above LoD.

At 143.92, POC is higher than the two previous days and there is no HVN. Volume traded today is small.


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Candle of the day is a small red one

ICHIMOKU 4H graph is almost unchanged from yesterday. Kijun Sen is this evening at 143.62.


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On the 4h graph, we can see that prices are almost in the middle of the upward channel.

143.85 (LoD) is a first support then 143.68 (MM 23) 143.62 (Kiju Sen), 143.59 (Monday's LoD) and finally weekly PP at 143.40
On the resistance side, above HoD (144.22) we have Monday's HoD (144.33) then R1 (144.54) and finally 2013 top (145.09).

Tomorrow, with two important US statistics, we may see more volatility than today.

Take Care.

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  #664 (permalink)
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Market opened with a small upward gap and all morning, incentive Buyers pushed the market upward.
Upon release of the ADP data at 2.15 pm, a spike was made at 144.57, three ticks above R1 (144.54) but there was no follow through and instead reactive Sellers entered into the market and sent the market back to Tuesday's closing level, making the LoD (143.88). Market closed about 15 ticks higher, not far from POC level.

At 144.04, POC is only a shade above yesterday. There is a selling tail between 144.30 and HoD (144.57).
Value is therefore concentrated between POC and 144.30.


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Result is a very neat shooting star, almost a tombstone doji.
It is worth noting that BOBL has exactly the same kind of day candle.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices are below Tenkan Sen and that Kijun Sen, at 143.90, is very near from the closing level.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are drifting in the upward channel and that MM 23, which acted already four times as support, is very close from the prices.

Top of the value (143.30) is a first resistance, then HoD (144.57). Above there is 2013 top (145.09).
On the support side, below 143.88 (LoD, Kijun Sen and MA 23) there is Weekly PP (143.40) and MA 44 (143.32 this evening). Below, prices would exit the upward channel and 142.80 (S1 and former upper range of a congestion) is a strong support.

Today's candle may signal the end of the bullish market. As long as prices do not go over today's HoD, I will give a negative biais to my trading.


Last edited by MARS; February 5th, 2014 at 05:28 PM. Reason: Typo mistake
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BOBL

Dear Mars,

Thank you for good and usable bund market view. Bund & bobl markets are pretty correlated. Now we have an a balance environment. Breakdown this balance area will be strong short signal (at least intermediate term).
Today fSnP tend to form some reversal pattern - may be this was a some sort of trigger.

Good luck!

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Bund Future 16/11-multicharts1_fgbm1.png  

Last edited by rpik; February 5th, 2014 at 05:59 PM. Reason: adding picture
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Breakdown (BOBL)

Dear traders!



Bobl market breaks down support point around 126,6 & falls to some old volume nodes - area of previous balance becomes resistance. Now we have an some valley in volume profile from 126,44 to 126,62. This zone may be revisited with high probability. My main scenario - short choppy price action in 126,50...126,64 zone. Fixing loss at 1 tick higher weekly POC at 126,8. Fixing profit after 1..3 weeks.

Cheers!

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  #667 (permalink)
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Wednesday candle was a true call for short

Market opened rouglhy where it closed yesterday and after IB was made, incentive Sellers pushed the market down to 143.74 where reactive Buyers entered into the market and send prices back to a shade less than the opening level which was not to be challenged. ECB decision to keep rates unchanged made a downard spike at 143.68.

Shortly after the beginning of Mario Draghi press conference, incentive Sellers came back and agressively pushed the market down to 143.27, which was to be LoD. Market ended at 143.41, which is to say weekly PP.

At 143.41, POC is considerably lower than the previous days. There are two HVN, one at POC level and the other one at 143.85. Volume of the day is bigger than the three previous days.


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Candle of the day is a big red one, almost a loop belt, which forms some sort of evening star with the previous ones.


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On the ICHIMOKU 4H graph, we can see that the cloud stopped the fall. Shikou Span is knocking on the candle line.
At 143.90, Kijun Sen shall act as a resistance. Market is still on the bullish mode in this TU.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that prices exit the rising channel by below and as a support, MA 44 did a good job so far. MA23 is now above prices and begun to dive.

In the case of a retracement tomorrow, 143.80/90 (HVN + MA 23 + Kijun Sen) is an obvious resistance. Above there is 144.06 (HoD and last week HoW) and further above 144.57 (2014 top)
On the support side, below LoD (143.28) there is 142.75/80 (upper end of a former range and S1).
In between there is weekly PP at 143.40, which is also POC value for today.

If tomorrow the market opens roughly where it closed this evening, I share rpik vew that the valley between the two HVN might be visited and we may even see some sort of pullback on the former support oblique of the rising channel during the morning.

The US data to be released at 2.30 pm may dramatically impact the market and we shall have two trading days in one.

Take care.

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  #668 (permalink)
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A WEEKLY DOJI AFTER THE 4TH BIG GREEN CANDLE

Marekt opened with a strong buying tail and incentive Buyers dramatically pushed the market up shortly after 9 am, when it was known that Germany's Federal Constitutional Court handed over to European Court of Justice a ruling on the Outright Monetary Transaction plan. A spike at 144.03 was then made. At such level, reactive Sellers entered into the market and pushed it down to 143.57.
Upon release of the US data at 2.30 pm, a new buying fever happened and on a spike, HoD (144.14) was made.
There was not to be a follow through however and market ranged without trend afterwards and ended at 143.82.

At 143.87, POC is about the same than Thursday. As already said there is a buying tail from 143.30 to 143.58 and a selling tail from 144.02 to 144.14.


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Result is a big green candle with an upper shadow, which is penetrating the previous candle. Volume traded Friday is about the same as Thursday.

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  #669 (permalink)
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continuation of previous post.

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On the ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices closed below Kijun Sen and that Shikou Span is about to go below the candle line. The cloud is still in support.


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On the 4H graph, we can see the nice pullback the market did on the former supporting oblique of the rising channel the market exit by below on Thursday, as forecasted.

I drafted an horizontal channel where I think the market may drift Monday and probably Tuesday before Jenet Yellen's testimony at 4 pm, as there are almost no data to be released on these two days.

MA 44 is still rising and on support wile MA 23 is now horizontal, giving an indication that the upward trend market enjoyed in January is over and that market may enter in a trendless period.


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The Weekly candle has a very small true corpse and two big shadows. It could be a structure of continuation or the indication that a top has been achieved. Considering fast stochastics level and 2013 top level (145.09) I would favour the top interpretation but it will only be confirmed if markets closes, on a weekly basis, below the lower shadow end (143.27).

Weekly PP is at 143.87. Market closed a shade below. Such weekly PP is not far from the previous week. Moreover, weekly POC (143.91) is only 7 ticks above previous week level, showing that market rise has come to an halt.

It is worth noting that if BOBL has almost the same structure than FGBM, SCHATZ seems much more vulnerable to a downard pressure. For shorting the market, I would therefore favour working on the shorter maturities.

144.14 (HoD) is a first resistance, than 144.54/57 (R1 / HoW) and then 2013 top (145.09).
On the support side, 143.60 (lower end of Friday value) is a first support, then 143.25/27 (S1/LoW) and further below 142.80 (upper end of a former range and lower hedge of the 4H cloud =SSB 4H).

Unless there is a big newsflows, I think market will be stuck in a 144.20 - 143.20 range in the first half of the week to come.

Have a nice Sunday afternoon.

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On the ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices closed below Kijun Sen and that Shikou Span is about to go below the candle line. The cloud is still in support.


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On the 4H graph, we can see the nice pullback the market did on the former supporting oblique of the rising channel the market exit by below on Thursday, as forecasted.

I drafted an horizontal channel where I think the market may drift Monday and probably Tuesday before Jenet Yellen's testimony at 4 pm, as there are almost no data to be released on these two days.

MA 44 is still rising and on support wile MA 23 is now horizontal, giving an indication that the upward trend market enjoyed in January is over and that market may enter in a trendless period.


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The Weekly candle has a very small true corpse and two big shadows. It could be a structure of continuation or the indication that a top has been achieved. Considering fast stochastics level and 2013 top level (145.09) I would favour the top interpretation but it will only be confirmed if markets closes, on a weekly basis, below the lower shadow end (143.27).

Weekly PP is at 143.87. Market closed a shade below. Such weekly PP is not far from the previous week. Moreover, weekly POC (143.91) is only 7 ticks above previous week level, showing that market rise has come to an halt.

It is worth noting that if BOBL has almost the same structure than FGBM, SCHATZ seems much more vulnerable to a downard pressure. For shorting the market, I would therefore favour working on the shorter maturities.

144.14 (HoD) is a first resistance, than 144.54/57 (R1 / HoW) and then 2013 top (145.09).
On the support side, 143.60 (lower end of Friday value) is a first support, then 143.25/27 (S1/LoW) and further below 142.80 (upper end of a former range and lower hedge of the 4H cloud =SSB 4H).

Unless there is a big newsflows, I think market will be stuck in a 144.20 - 143.20 range in the first half of the week to come.

Have a nice Sunday afternoon.

Sempre molto bravo.
Grazie!

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