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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #651 (permalink)
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A quiet morning

Market opened rougly at Monday's closing level, shily explored the high side (142.54 HoD for the time being) then Sellers entered into the market and prices dropped to 142.26 (LoD for the time being), a price not far from the 142.20 level.

This afternoon there are US figures to be released but not obvious that prices will exit from this morning range.


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On this TU 30' graph, I drafted a decreasing wedge. Target is 142.80 in the case of an upward exit, which I think will happen considering the short term trend. In the case of an exit by below, target is 141.70 but I would repurchase the short position at 141.80, the upper end of the range the market was in from January 17th to 23rd.


Have a nice lunch.

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  #652 (permalink)
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Another quiet day.

Market opened rougly at Monday's closing level, shily explored the high side then Sellers entered into the market and prices dropped to 142.26, making the LoD, a price not far from the 142.20 level.

From there, reactive Sellers cautiously entered into the market and pushed prices up. Market closed at 142.57 after making its HoD (142.63) during the night session.

Market almost stayed within the morning range, as forecasted.

At 142.51, POC is about the same as yesterday while there are two HVN, one at 142.33 and the other on around POC level.


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Result is a small green candle with a lower shadow. Volume is a shade bigger than yesterday.


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On the ICHIMOKU 4H graph, we can see that Tenkan Sen is now in support below prices.


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On the 4H graph, I deleted the small downard channel . Prices are obviously still in the large upward channel there are in since early January.


Resistances and Supports are little changede from yesterday.
Resistances : 142.63 (HoD) then 142.69 (former HoD), 142.90 (Last week HoW) 143. 18 (R1) 143.63 (former HoW).
Supports : 142.21/31 (Two LoD + weekly PP), 142.14 (Kijun Sen), 142.78 (upper end of last range).

Tomorrow, I am expecting a very quiet day, waiting for the FOMC minutes release.

Good Night.

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  #653 (permalink)
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UP UP UP


Market opened with a downard gap and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers. A shade above the 142.20 (142.25, which was to be LoD), Buyers were still there and gradually pushed the market up, first to Tuesday's closing level and then all the way up to last week HoW (142.90).
During the night session, FOMC minutes were released and market rocketed to 143.30, which was to be HoD, a shade above R1 (143.28).

At 143.07, POC is much higher than the previous days and there is an HVN around POC. Almost no volume traded above 143.07.

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Result is big green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper one.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are at the same level (142.74), making such level a potential support level.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that prices rebounded on MA 23 and knocked the resistance oblique.

142.90 (HVN) is a first support, then Kijun Sen (142.74) and below LoD (142.26)
On the resistance side there is 143.63, a former HoW but also mid R1-R2 and above R2 (143.88).

As prices are near the resistance oblique of the upward channel, I would expect some sort of retracement of today's impressive rise.
23% : 143.05
38% : 142.88
50% : 142.76.

Good Night.

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  #654 (permalink)
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Mid-day review

Market opened with a downard gap and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers.
Instead, reactive Buyers were at 143.94, a shade above yesterday's HVN. Upon release of the German statistic at 9h55 am, incentive Buyers pushed the market further up (143.43), above yesterday's HoD.

Since then market retreated at yesterday's HoD level (143.30).

If 143.43 is the top, downard potential is as low as 142.40
If 143.94 is the bottom, upward potential is as high as 144.10 but R2 at 143.91 would be already an hefty target.

If prices do not hold above yesterday's HoD, I think that reactive Sellers will be back.

Have a nice lunch.

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  #655 (permalink)
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Market opened with a downard gap and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers.
Instead, reactive Buyers were at 143.94, a shade above yesterday's HVN. Such level was to be LoD.
Upon release of the German statistic at 9h55 am, incentive Buyers pushed the market further up to what would become the HoD (143.43).
US data did not bring much and in the afternoon, market ranged trendless and ended at 143.29.

At 143.17, POC is higher than yesterday and there is an HVN at 143.21


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Result is a small greend candle with two small shadows. Above a long green candle it shows some sort of market deliberation : shall I continue to rise, stop (and drift horizontally) or reverse ?

4H ICHIMOKU graph is unchanged with Kijun Sen now at 142.75


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On the 4H graph, we can see that a candle, almost a doji long legs, made the whole range of today.
It does not give me a good feeling for the continuation of the upward trend.

HVN (143.21) is a first support, then 142.93/90 which is LoD but also last week HoW, below we have 142.74, which is Kijun Sen and MA 23 4H.
On the resistance side, above HoD ((143.43) we have a former HoW but also mid R1-R2 at 143.61/63 then R2 at 143.88 .

Some US statistics tomorrow that could bring some volatility in the afternoon.
If you are long in bonds for several days, it could be wise to take your profit before it is too late.

If today's HoD is not overcomed and specially if opening level does not hold I will give a bearish biais to my ID trading tomorrow.

Good Night.

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Stagnation or correction?

Dear Mars,

Thanks for the good sense of the market. At the beginning of the day (before stats) were statistically significant downward impulse... I usually work with FGBM (due to less volatility). My strategy: -monitoring a value area placement (as support); -entering at retracements of this areas. I does not use any indicators. And what trading principles do you use?

Good night!

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  #657 (permalink)
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MARS MIX

Dear RPIK,


First of all I am basically a day trader (I love to sleep at night).

My trading method is basically a combination of Market Profile analysis, recording the important price levels and associated volumes, japnaese candlesticks and ICHIMOKU, graphic analysis, the use of a couple of medium averages I found do work together with of a couple of a very basic indicators of overbought/oversold situation, such as RSI and fast stochastics but most important, a very strict Money Management.

I wish you a long trading life.

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  #658 (permalink)
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rpik View Post
Dear Mars,

Thanks for the good sense of the market. At the beginning of the day (before stats) were statistically significant downward impulse... I usually work with FGBM (due to less volatility). My strategy: -monitoring a value area placement (as support); -entering at retracements of this areas. I does not use any indicators. And what trading principles do you use?

Good night!

Welcome (in the jungle)

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  #659 (permalink)
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UP UP UP

Market opened with a small upward gap and filled it almost immediately. About ten minutes prior to the European CPI, incentive Buyers entered into the market and pushed the price up to reach HoD shortly before 2 pm.
Reactive Sellers then made prices going down to 143.71 but Buyers came back and market ended at HoD.

At 143.84, POC is much higher than Thursday. Value is concentrated between 143.70 and 143.90, giving the day a "p" shape.

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Result is a big green candle with bare head and heavy volume.


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On the ICHIMOKU 4H graph, Kijun sen is at 143.15.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are trying to exit the upward channel by above.


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Candle of the week is a fourth big green candle with more volume than the three previous ones : the upward move is showing signs of strength.

Weekly PP is at 143.39. Prices ended above Friday therefore R1 (144.54) is a logical target as long as prices do remain above weekly PP.


If market opens tomorrow below the closing level, HoD (144.04) will be a first resistance, then 144.25 (former HoW), 144.55 (R1) and finally 145.09 (2013 top).
On the support side, the lower end of Friday's value (143.70) is a first support then 143.35-39 (Lod - Weekly PP), below there is Kijun Sen 4H (143.13) and Thursday LoD (142.93).

I feel that exiting above the upward channel visible in TU 4H is an excess and I am expecting some sort of retracement Monday. I will therefore sell in the case opening level is nearby friday's closing level and does not hold.

Have a nice Sunday evening.

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  #660 (permalink)
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Mid Day Review


Market opened with a small downard gap and reactive Sellers pushed the market down, making a selling tail from 143.99 to 143.89. Market then ranged between 143.69 (a shade below the lower Friday's value range) and 143.89 (the selling tail downard limit).

In the case 143.99 is the top, downard potential is 143.30, but weekly PP at 143.40 or Friday's LoD at 143.35 could be today's LoD as well.
In the case 143.69 is the bottom, upward potential is 144.40, with however last week HoW (144.06) and 144.13 (Annual R1) on the way.

The US, with ISM figure at 4 pm, could give today's trend.
I have the feeling that closing will be below opening level today.

Have a nice lunch break.

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