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Market opened roughly where it closed Friday, explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers, making its LoD (141.41), then incentive Buyers pushed the market up to its HoD (141.76).
There reactive Sellers entered into the game and market ended at 141.62
At 141.61, POC is substantially higher than last week and there is an HVN at 141.69.
Result is a small green candle, almost a spin top, with a small volume, probably due to Martin Luther King"s day in the US. Shikou Span is above the candle line and will stay above for at least several days. This did not happen since Octobre 25th. After such candle, I would not be surpised to see the market retracing part of the rise from 140.38.
On the 4H graph with ICHIMOKU, no change except that Kijun Sen level is now 141.05. It is also weekly PP and MA 23 TU 4H and is therefore a strong support, would the market retrace down there.
On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are still in the upward channel which support oblique is merged with MA 23.
HoD (141.76) is a first resistance, then R1 (141.91), 4Q 2013 top (142.21) and R2 (142.35)
On the support side, below 141.57, last week HoW, we have LoD (141.41), friday's LoD (141.16) and the abovementionned 141.03.
Tomorrow the only economical data to be released is the ZEW but the reopening of the US after MLK day could bring some volatility as well.
Market opened with a 20 ticks downard gap and incentive Sellers pushed the market down to a first low. Reactive Buyers then sent the market back to opening level. Reactive Sellers made again the market to drop to its LoD (141.30). From there, Buyers took the lead and market made its HoD (141.78) on the night session, a shade above Monday's HoD (141.76). Market ended about 10 ticks lower, making a double top.
At 141.32, POC is lower than yesterday and there are two HVN, one centered at 141.46 and the other at 141.66 with a valley in between.
Result is a green candle with two spikes wich engulfs the previous one. Volume is in line with the previous days.
The 4H graph with ICHIMOKU is unchanged, except that Kijun Sen is now at 141.15.
On the 4H graph, I traced an horizontal channel which is today's range. On the fast stochastics, I do see a discrepancy (prices at same hight but second fast stochastics' top is lower than the first one.
HoD (141.76/78) is an obvious resistance (double top), above there is R1 (91), 4Q 2013 top (142.21) and R2 (142.35)
On the support side, below LoD (141.30) there is Kijun Sen and yesterday's LoD (141.16/17) then weekly PP at 141.03.
No statistics tomorrow so, unless there is an unexpected newslflow, I think market shall stay broadly within the same range than today.
Market opened with a small downard gap which was pretty soon filled by reactive Buyers. When it was checked that higher prices would not attract Buyers, HoD was achieved (141.75) a shade below yesterday (141.76) and from there Sellers pushed the market down to 141.37, about 7 ticks from yesterday LoD. Market closed not far from such level.
As forecasted, today's range was broadly the same as yesterday.
At 141.41, POC is about the same as yesterday. There is no HVN.
Result is a small red candle with an upper spike. Volume is a shade below average.
On the 4H graph with ICHIMOKU, we can see that Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are above closing prices.
Chikou Span is still above the candle line and the cloud is in support. No real downard danger yet.
On the 4H graph, I drafted an horizontal channel where market is drifting. As fast stochastics are low, I would not be surprised if the market would look for some support a shade below 141.30 and then test again the 141.76 resistance.
As prices entered into the horizontal flag by below, I am expecting the exit to be by above. In such case, target would be 142.40, which happens to be the superior weekly bollinger (142.41) and not far from R2 (141.35).
In such respect, on a short term prospective, it could be wise to buy near the 141.30 level and keep such long position, waiting for the exit by above, with a stop in relation with the target to be achieved.
Resistances are the same as yesterday : 141.75/76 (HoD), 141.91 (R1), 142.21 (4Q 2013 top) and 142.35 (R2).
Supports are LoD (141.37), yesterday LoD (141.30), 141.03 (weekly PP and MA 44 4H) and 140.85 (SSB dayli).
Plenty of statistics tomorrow to bring some volatility.
Take care, the first move might not be the right one......
Market opened with a small upward which was filled by reactive Sellers. On yesterday's LoD (141.37) Buyers send the market back to opening level and thereafter to the upper end of the 141.30-141.78 range.
Before the release of the first US figure, incentive Buyers took the lead and smashed all the resistances on the way of the upper weekly bollinger which was reached during the night session. Market ended about 10 ticks below HoD (142.46)
POC is only at 141.58 and there are three HVN, one around POC, another one at 141.85 and the third one between 141.95 and 142.07. There is very small volume exchanged above 142.07.
Result is a big green candle, almost a loop belt which goes above top the two last quarterly candles of 2013.
On the ICHIMOKU 4H graph, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are at 141.86, making this level a support.
On the 4H graph, I drafted the rising channel. Prices are near the resistance oblique.
142.07 (top of value) is a first support, then 141.91/95 (R1 and lower range of the first HVN). Below there is 141.85 (isolated HVN and Kijun Sen) then 141.78, (former upper end of the range) and finally LoD (141.37).
On the resistance side, it is harder to find something. Above HoD (142.46) there is 142.54 (former HoW) then 143.22 (another former HoW) and finally R3.
I am expecting a retracement tomorrow, at least to 142.03, which is 38 retracement of the rise from 141.37 to 142.46, as part of the rise from 142.07 to 142.46 is short covering in a night session where sellers were gone.
Market opened rougly where it closed and tested whether lower prices would attract Sellers. At 1422.22, which was to be LoD Buyers entered into the market and pushed vigourously up. HoD (142.90) was reached before 1 pm.
At such level, reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices ranged between 142.40 and 142.80. Session conluded on the latter.
At 142.65, POC is considerably higher than Thursday and there is an HVN in the 142.56-64 range.
Result is a green candle, shorter than the previous one with two small shadows.
The 142.20 level, is overcommed.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, Kijun Sen is at 142.07, making such level a potential support in the case of a retracement.
On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are at rising channel resistance oblique level There is a red candle, almost a doji with long legs. That is where heavy volume was traded. In order to go further up, market has to close in this TU over its upper spike (142.80). Failing to do so could provoque a retracement, eventually back to 142.20, which is 23% of the rise from 141.37, (Thursday LoD) to 142.90 (friday HoD).
MA 23 and 44 and rising in paralell. Every retracement is therefore a buying opportunity so far.
On a weekly basis, candle is a third green loop belt. I do see the three soldiers, a structure which does announce further market strenght in the weeks to come (but not necessarly tomorrow...). Also Shikou Span is above the candle line. It was not in such a position since mid February 2013.
Weely PP is at 142.30. As long as market remains above such level, first target is R1 at 143.29.
You may remember that two weeks ago I made the hypothesis that Bund Future Contract could make a reverse Head & Shoulders (137.76 - 136.36 - 138.68) with 142.20 as neckline. Market ended 60 ticks above on Friday. Theoretical target is 147.50-148.00. however, with R1 annual at 144.12 while monthly upper BB is at 144.13, this latter level makes a target good enough to me, as long as prices remain above the 142.20 level. Such target is also below 2013 top (145.12).
142.91 (HoD) is a first resistance, then R1 (143.28) at the same time resistance and target. Above we may have 143.63 (former HoW and mid R1-R2) and then R2 at 143.90
On the support side, 142.39/43 is a first one (lower end of Friday's afternoon range) then 142.30 (Weekly PP) and below 142.20 (Friday's LoD and reverse H&S neckline, but also mid PP-R1 annual, an important level indeed). Further below there is 141.80, former upper end of the 141.30 - 141.80 range but I do not believe market will go so low next week.
For Monday, I am expecting some retracement, especially if there is some sort of recovery of the stock market which was heavily sold on Friday.
Market opened with a small gap down and Sellers pushed the market down to its LoD (142.41) by 1.30 pm.
On the afternoon, the US data made reactive Buyers bringing the market to its HoD (142.69) but reactive Sellers entered the market and sent prices back to LoD. Market ended a shade higher.
At 142.51, POC is about 10 ticks lower than Friday. There is no HVN.
Result is a small red candle which forms an harami with the previous one. It is to be noted that sessions's volume is much lower than Friday.
Tenkan sen is now above prices. Kijun Sen is at 142.13.
On the 4H graph, I traced a small downard channel which I analyze as a flag (low slope and low volume of the day).
As long as prices are within the big rising channel (i.e. above 142.20) the upward trend is not in jeopardy.
Support and resistance level are almost unchanged from this morning, with however today's LoD and HoD as first supports and resistances.
Today, as expected, stock market retraced part of its fall and as a consequence, bonds retraced as well.
On wednesday evening, with FOMC minutes release, we may see the upward move of the bonds markets resuming. In the meantime, we may be stuck in a 142.20 - 142.70 range.
Thank you for very usable market comments.
I think about some alternative scenario: FOMC "no additional tapering" -> SP500 higher -> bonds futures lower (keeping in global range from your weekly chart).
Today, we could observe a negative correlation btw ESH4 & FGBLH4.
