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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #621 (permalink)
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Market opened with a downard gap and filled it. All morning market traded sideways, waiting for the US employement figure but always above opening level.

Upon release, market went up to 140.11 then dramatically dropped to LoD (139.46) and from there reactive Buyers pushed the market up back to the opening level and further up. Closing was at 140.04.

At 139.91, POC is much lower than Thursday, with value concentrated in the upper end of the range.

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Result is a green candle which hardly retraces 50% of the previous candle. 140.11 is also 23.6 retracement of the fall since 142.05 (november 29th top).


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is not far from 140.54, the squared downard triangle horizontal support.

139.46 could be a first support and below I do see 139.68 (former LoW).
On the resistance side, above HoD (140.15) there is our old friend 140.55 (major resistance) and then 140.78 (MA 50 and 38 retracement of the fall since 142.05) .

Weekly candle is red and much bigger than the 5 previous candles.
Weekly POC is at 139.91 and there are two HVN, one around POC and the other in the 140.40-55 range.
Weekly PP is at 140.40.

As long as prices do remain below the 140.40-55 area, I will have a bearish biais with S1 (139.20) as a first target.
I will not be suprised if prices do range between 139.46 and 140.55 in the fist half of the week to come.

Have a nice sunday evening.

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  #622 (permalink)
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SCHATZ as guidance ?

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SCHATZ in day TU.

I see a very neat bottom doji.


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And a big hammer in TU 4H.

Could be wise to buy on a weakness tomorrow, as long as prices do remain above the lower end of the spike (110.270).

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  #623 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed Friday and traded sideways all day long in a small range.

At 140.01, POC is a shade higher than yesterday but much lower than the days before.


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Result is almost a doji at roughly 23.6 retracement of the fall since 142.06.
I have the feeling that we do not have seen the bottom with 139.46.

On the resistance side, above HoD (140.24) we have PP weelky at 140.40 then our old friend 140.57 and finally MA 50 at 140.78.

On the support side it is to be seen whether LoD (139.96) is a support. Below there is Low of last Week (139.46) then I do see 138.68, a former LoW, as a possible support.

At 139.20, S1 is still a logical target, as long as prices do remain below weekly PP.

I would be keen seller below LoD to target 139.46 and then 139.20.

Good Night.

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  #624 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed and incentive Buyers tested the 140.22 resistance where they met reactive Sellers. Market traded then sideways untill early afternoon but always above opening level.
Then incentive Buyers pushed prices upward untill they were met with strong reactive Sellers at weekly PP (140.40), which was HoD. Market then retreated to 140.08. Closing was at 140.25.

At 140.19, POC is higher than the two previous days but much below than the days before. There is a selling tail from 140.29 to 140.40 and a HVN at 140.16.

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Result is a green candle with an upper spike which ends at about 38.2 retracement of the fall since 142.05.


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On the 4H graph, I do see a rising channel with a low slope, which looks like a flag to me. In such case, exit by below would give a 138.50 target, between S1 (139.20) and S2 (138.20).

140.40 is a resistance and above our old friend at 140.55. Then we will have MA 44 at 140.80.
On the support side, 140.08 (LoD) is a first one and then 139.96 (Monday LoD), Low of last week would be the next one (139.47) and then S1 at 139.20.

As long as the market is in the rising channel, I will be cautiously bullish, ready to sell heavily if the rising channel supporting oblique is broken.

Good Night.


Last edited by MARS; December 10th, 2013 at 05:24 PM. Reason: clerical mistakes
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  #625 (permalink)
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I was not following the market the last two days so I will not coment Friday's session.

The whole last week, market ranged between 139.96 and 140.47.

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Result for the week is a small green candle which hardly retraces 38.2 % of the previous big red candle.
I see that as a weakness sign.

Weekly PP is at 140.23, S1 at 140.08 and R1 at 140.53 are very close.

The 139.96-01, is an obvious support. If broken, 139.88 may be a weak support and then 139.47, LoW of week before last.
On the resistance side, above the 140.38-47 area, there is our old friend at 140.53, which is also R1 and then MA 50 D at 140.81.

The exit from the last week range will give the next trend. My guess is that such exit will be downards.

Have a nice sunday evening.

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  #626 (permalink)
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Market opened at 140.59, with a big upward gap which was filled by reactive Sellers who sent the market down to 140.16 by mid-morning. Market then traded sideways and ended at 140.21 after making its LoD (140.14) during the night session.

At 140.26, POC is 3 tics lower than Friday. There is an HVN at POC level and a selling tail above 140.48.


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Result is a red candle which forms a black cloud on the previous green candles.


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On the 4h graph, I traced a low slope rising channel that could be a flag (i.e. a consolidation of the downard move).
Target is 138.70 in the case of an exit from the flag by below.

140.14 is a first support, then the 139.96/01 area, 139.88 and finally 139.47.
On the resistance side, above 140.48, there is 140.59 and then MA 50 D at 140.81.

Tomorrow morning, the ZEW shall bring some volatility and some US figures will be released on the afternoon.
The big event is however scheduled for Wednesday, with the FOMC report.

Good Night.

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  #627 (permalink)
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Market opened almost where it closed Tuesday, made is LoD (140.12) then reactive Buyers entered into the market and HoD (140.43) was made. Market then traded sideways and closed at 140.42).

At 140.36, POC is a shade higher than Tuesday and there is no HVN.


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Result is a small green candle.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that the MA 44 made a good job as support and that both MA 44 and 23 are now supporting and made the golden cross. Prices are still in the rising channel with a small slope.

Same support and resistance levels as Tuesday.

Watch the FED this evening at 8 pm. In the case of no tapering in December, market could very well be jump to MA 50 D (140.82). Alternatively, some hawkish move from the FED would made prices exiting the rising channel from below and the test of week beofre last LoW (139.46) is likely.

Fasten seat belts for a jumpy ride.

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  #628 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed Tuesday and after IB was made, incentive Buyers pushed the market up to its HoD (140.49) by mid-morning, after the IFO data release. After making a double top, market fixed at 140.17.
During the night session, FOMC report was released and Ben made its last FOMC speach. Prices begun to drop to 139.69 then immediately jumped to a shade below HoD. Market closed at 140.13, not far from the fixing.

At 140.32, POC is a shade lower than yesterday and in the same area than last four days POC's.
There is a buying tail from 140.67 to 140.05.


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Result is a red candle, which almost swallows the previous one, whith a lower spike. Prices do exit the cloud by below.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Shikou Span is below the candle line and closing of last candle is below Kijun sen and the cloud.


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On the 4H cloud, we can see that prices are exiting the low slope rising channel by below.

140.48, being ICHIMOKU cloud lower hedge is a strong resistance. It is also today's HoD.
Above we have MA 50 at 140.81.
On the support side, there is LoD (139.67) and below week before last LoW (139.47).

I am expecting a downard and volatile day tomorrow and I may give a negative biais to my trading below 140.50.

Good Night.

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  #629 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed Wednesday and immediately incentive Sellers sent the market to a low. From 139.78, reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices went up to 140.25, which was to be HoD.
At such level, reactive Sellers where there again and early afternoon they pushed down prices to LoD (139.63).
Reactive Buyers sent then the market up again which ended at 139.86.

At 139.87, POC is considerably lower than the previous days. There are two HVN, one a shade lower POC and the other, smaller, centered on 140.08 with a valley in between.


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Result is a red candle with a lower spike. MA 50 et 20 made the Death Cross and today's candle is below the ICHIMOKU cloud. We are technically in a bear market.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU figure, we can see that Shikou Span is below the candle line and prices are below the cloud, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen. It is bear. A first alert would be prices going above Tenkan Sen (140.03).


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 and 23 are almost horizontal. I traced a support line linking the two lows. If there is a rebound on the next contact with such line, it will be called a supporting oblique.

139.95 could be a resistance and above there is HoD (140.25) then 140.48 (lower hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud) and MA 50 D at 140.80.
On the support side, below LoD (139.63) there is 139.47 (LoW of two weeks ago) and S3 at 139.31.

This post will be my last for 2013.

I wish all my silent redears a nice end of the year and thanks my Italian reader for its constant support.

BIBI

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  #630 (permalink)
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BACK TO WORK


Last two weeks, volumes were very scarce.
The biggest move happened on December 27th, when market dropped about 60 points and made a low at 138.68. Such low was confirmed on January 2nd, making there a double bottom. Since then, prices are moving in a 138.68 - 139.25 range, as can be seen on the 4H graph.

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POC of last two trading days is unchanged at 139.12.


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On the 1 day graph, we can see that Friday's candle is almost a doji that could very well be of continuation.

138.94, Friday's LoD, could ba a first support, then the double bottom (138.68) and below 137.91, a former LoW.
On the resistance side, above Friday's HoD (139.25) there is 139.45, MA 44 (139.57) and finally MA 20D at 140.02.

Weekly PP is at 139.04. Prices ended above on Friday. R1 (139.30) is a first possible target and R2 (139.50) a second one while R3 (139.97) is not out of reach in the case the market wants to begin the year with an upward move.
Below weekly PP, a new test of the double bottom is likely.

Have a nice Sunday.

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