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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #601 (permalink)
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Market opened with a small upward gap, explored the high side, making its HoD (141.26) then traded sideways and ended filling the gap, a shade more than LoD (140.95).

At 141.17, POC is much lower than Friday and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a small red candle, which is almost a reversed hammer, nearby the 140.82 support which was not tested.
At 140.78, MA 20D is on support and will likely be tested. A big green candle would form a morning star.

4H ICHIMOKU graph does not bring more info than Friday evening.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 begins to decrease and that there is a support in the 140.88 - 93 area.

Below there is MA 20D '140.78) and then MA 50 at 139.60.
On the resistance side, above HoD (141.26, there is MA 44 at 141.50 and then 141.95/142.05 area.

Tomorrow, as there are no important figures, I am expecting a trendless day.

Same strategy as for today : I may try to buy if markets seems to do another rotation and be ready to sell if a do see that such rotation could be partial (around MA 44 for instance) or if markets drops with good volume below the 140.82/93 level.

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  #602 (permalink)
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Market opened rougly where it closed and immediately formed a selling tail. Incentive Sellers took the lead from very beginning and LoD (140.53) was hit by mid morning. Afterwards, market traded sideways and unsucessfully tried to go above 140.82, which seems to be again a resistance level.

At 140.65, POC is much lower than yesterday, which was also much lower than the trading day before : Sellers are in control. There is a HVN around POC level and obviously not much volume on the selling tail, from 140.83 up to HoD (140.99).

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Result is red candle which closes below MA 20D level. I do not see much support before MA 50D (139.65) and the upper hedge of the ICHIMOKU cloud.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Tenkan sen (in green) is above prices. As long as it remains so, no harm on the bearish trend.


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On the 4H graph, I do consider that prices exit the squared broadening structure by below. Therefore, I do have a 139.60 target, which by coïncidence (I like that) is about MA 50D level and the upper hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud.

As already said, I do not see ay serious support before 139.60/70 level.
On the resistance side, we have 139.82, then 139.99, 141.29 and 141.42 (MA 44) .

Obviously I do remain in the same bearish biais in my ID trading, I do sell and then repurchase the short position created, every top is to be considered as a potential opportunity to sell.

Good night.

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  #603 (permalink)
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I was (again) competely mistaken.

Market opened with a small gap upwards then traded sideways but below the 140.82 level and made, during the morning, a short contact at 140.66 (LoD) a shade above Tuesday's closing.
Early afternoon, the 140.82 resistance was overhelmed with volume and it was then clear that shorting the market was not anymore the good strategy......
Incentive Buyers pushed the market vigourously and HoD (141.38) was reached by mid afternoon.
Market closed a shade below.

POC is at a hefty 141.33, above two last days POC's and there are two HVN, one at 141.30 and the other one at 140.80, with very few volume exchanged between 140.86 and 141.12.

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Result is almost a green loop belt, which closed above MA 20. Shikou span bounced on the candle line.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices are above Kijun Sen but still below the cloud and that Shikou Span is a shade above the candle line. Market is still technically on a bearish mode but on the verge to be on the bullish one.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that prices bounced on the support oblique, when I wrongly thought the opposite and market ended at MA 44 level.

HoD is a resistance (14138) and above 141.95/142.10 area then 142.30.
On the support side we have LoD (140.66) then 140.53 and below MA 50 at 139.70.

Tomorrow morning, I am expecting a trendless market exploring the valley between the two HVN.
On the afternoon, with some US data and Mrs Yellen testimony, everithing can happen, from an exit upward the squared downard broadening, with a target at 143.40, to an exit downard, with a target at, let's say MA 50
(139.70) if the present rotation is a partial one.

Take care and be cautious.

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  #604 (permalink)
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A very quiet morning indeed.
I drafted a downard channel. If the oblique resistance hold, market shall find support below 140.80.
If resistance oblique is broken, 142 shall be reached.

Have a good lunch.

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  #605 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap and traded sideways in a small range without any trend all day long.

At 141.58 POC is higher than the day before.


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Result is a spin top.


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On the 4H graph, I redrafted a downard channel. Prices are near the resistance oblique.

Resistances and supports are rougly the same as the day before.

The volatiliy I was expecting for the afternoon did not happen, despite some US statistics and Mrs Yelen's testimony.

No big news flows expected tomorrow.

Like the market, I am a bit lost.

Hopefullly TGIF.

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  #606 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed Thursday, explored shily the high side, making its HoD (141.78) as per Thursday. Reactive Sellers sent then the market down to its LoD (141.35) where reactive Buyers pushed the market up and back to its opening level.

At 141.53, POC is only a shade upper than Thursday and vallue is rather small : Buyers seems exhausted.

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Result is a hammer forming a double top at 141.78.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph Shikou Span is above the candle line, prices are above Kijun Sen, Tenkan sen and the cloud. Market is technically in a bullish mode. First warning would be to go below Tenkan sen (141.55).


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On the 4H graph, I still do see the Bund future contract in a downard structure.

141.78 is an obvious resistance, above there is the 141.95/142.10 area then 142.30.
On the support side, below 141.35 there is MA 44 (141.26) then 14082 and finally the supporting oblique around 140.40.

If 171.78 resistance is overhelmed, 142.10 is the target and above tarket of the 143.40 with 142.28 to pass.
On the downard side, below 140.40, target of the squared downard broadening structure is 138.80.

On a weekly basis, last week candle is green with a downard spike and is included in week before last candle, which was red. Market is trendless in a 140.80 - 142 range.
Weekly PP is 141.33. Market closed above. R1 at 142.10 is a logical target as long as prices are above 141.33.


The whole picture gives a bullish feeling and I will act accordingly as long as prices do remain above the 141.30-50 level. Going abovee 141.78 is of essence for the market to rise. Below 141.30, I will be keen seller.

Have a nice Sunday.

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  #607 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed Friday, tested the 141.75 level where reactive Sellers pushed the market down to LoD (141.45), 10 tics above Friday's LoD. Slightly prior to the US opening, reactive Buyers took the lead and sent back the market to opening levels and even more, breaking the 141.78 resistance. Night market saw incentive Buyers acting and market ended at HoD (141.95).

At 141.61, POC is at the same level as Friday and there two HVN, one a shade below POC and the other one, bigger, at 141.84.

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Result is a green candle with a skinhead and a lower spike.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that all indicators are in the bullish mode : Shikou span is over the candle line and the cloud, candles are above the cloud, Kiju sen and Tenkan sen.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that after staying in an horizontal flag, prices broke the 141.78 resistance level.
142.00/10 is at reach and shall be tested tomorrow. A first upward target, given by the exit from the horizontal flag, is R1 at 142.50. I think it could be reached tomorrow as well after the ZEW.
A second target is the one given by the exit of the downard broadening channel, 143.40, which is much more ambitious and could be reached within this week or during next.

Above the 142.00/10 resistance we do have 142.32, three weeks ago HoW and then 142.65 and 143.33, former HoW on May 2013.
On the support side, it is to be seen whether the 141.72/78 area has become now a support. Below, we do have LoD (141.45) MA 44 (141.31), which is also weekly PP and then the supporting oblique of the downard broadening channel.

Tomorrow, I am expecting a quiet opening and some volatility with the ZEW at 11 am.

Good Night.

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  #608 (permalink)
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Again, I was completely mistaken.

Market opened roughly where it closed and after 9 am, prior to the release of the ZEW, incentive Sellers pushed the market down and they did so all day long.

At 141.65, POC is a shade higher than yesterday and value is swallowing yesterday's value. Volume is bigger than the previous days.

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Result is a red loop belt which lower end is at MA 20 D level.


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On the 4H graph, within the big squared dowanrd broadening structure, I drafted an upward squared broadening structure. Market ended at MA 44 level.
If the exit is by below, target is 141.00. The other altenative is to go back to 142 for another rotation.

HoD (141.89) is a first resistance then 142.00/10 and afterwards 142.29.
On the support side we do have LoD (141.33) then 140.55 and finally the supporting oblique of the squared broadening structure.

Tomorrow evening, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released and cards may be reshuffled again.

Good Night.

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  #609 (permalink)
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WHAT A DAY

Market opened at 141.31 roughly where it closed yesterday and after a narrow IB was made, initiative Sellers pushed the market down to 140.90, which was to be the day session low.
From there and after the first US data was released, reactive Buyers brung the market back to the opening level.
Propably due to short positions repurchased in panic, prices rose up to HoD ( 141.60) one hour prior to the end of the day session which fixed at 141.32, forming a nice doji with long legs.
During the night session, panic buyers were gone and reactive Sellers took the lead and sent the market down to its Lod (140.82), which was also closing level.

At 141.13, POC is substancially lower than the day before and value ranges from 140.95 to 141.35, with no HVN.

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Result is a red candle with an upper spike and a bare bottom.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future Contrat exit from below the squared upward broadening structure, made a generous pullback and ended on the 140.82 level.

Such level is an obvious support and below there is 140.66, 140.55 (former LoD) and then the supporting oblique, around 138.80.
On the Resistance side, above HoD (141.60) we do have the 141.90 level.

No idea where the market will go tomorrow but I guess this day will have to be digested somehow.

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  #610 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and traded sideways between 140.56, already identified as a support and 141.04.

At 141.93, POC is lower than yesterday and there is a low volume traded around 141.82.


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Result is a spin top. On the grah, I drafted an horizontal channel of 140.50 - 142 range. MA 20 is flatening but MA 50 still on the rise. Shikou Span is still over the candle line and the cloud is on support and lies ahead.
As prices came in this flag by below, we could exepct them to exit by above.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 and MA 23 are crossing one and another time, typical of a range market.
There is a balance between Buyers and Sellers and it is hard to tell when prices will exit from one side or the other.

140.55 is an obvious support, below there is MA 50 at 140.30.
141.90/00 is an obvious resistance and below MA 20 at 141.37.

I am not expecting the market to exit the abovementionned range. Not even sure than IFO coudl bring much volatiliy tomorrow.

TGIF.

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