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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #591 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed, made its HoD (142.19) then made its LoD (141.69) and closed at 141.75.

At 141.82, POC is lower than Thursday and value is concentrated in the lower part of the range, giving the day a "d" shape.


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Result is a red candle, which forms with the previous one a black cloud. It seems that the upward move is exhausted.

4H graph does not bring interesting information.


Much more interesting is BOBL daily, where a shooting star can be seen.
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HoW (142.32) is an interesting resistance, below HoD and much above 143.33, a former HoW.
On the support side, we do have 141.31/69 below MA 44 (141.12) and then 140.82.

On a weekly basis, the candle is green with a small upper spike, POC is at 141.80, about where the market closed Friday and PP will be next week at 141.63. R1 is at 142.45, not far from HoW and S1 is at 141
There is almost no volume exchanged between 141.30 and 141.45, therefore, if market goes down tomorrow, we can expect 141.45 to be a support.

I have a bearish biais and I will sell if the open level does not hold to target the upper hedge of the 141.30-141.45 almost gap.

Have a nice sunday evening.

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  #592 (permalink)
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PMA for November 4

LTF:
Large balance area, upward channel and at previous resistance level but not high of the range yet.

STF:
Market opened slightly above close and formed quite a wide IB with a failed extension up towards the previous day VPOC. Prices at the high were then rejected and travelled down in small but continuous rotations until close. With the previous day market forms a little balance with quite a lot of volume above its value area and an unfair low where initiating buyers are present.

If buyers are still present below Friday’s low and with regards to a strong LT resistance level near the high, we might keep on balancing a bit here.

No significant reports tomorrow.

Successful trading.

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PMA for November 5


LTF:
No change, same as yesterday.

STF:
Market opened within previous day’s value area and above its VPOC and balanced for most part of the morning thanks to buyers present above Friday’s low. Even though buyers were successful in extending the range up a bit, market failed to go much higher and later returned back to today’s value area and closed at today’s VPOC. Since it is a second inside day, there are no LTF players. The rotations are very narrow and lack real direction. We may be getting ready for some better move, however it seems that these days, the market is driven by news only. The scenario remains the same. As long as the buyers are there below the current balance unfair low and sellers are above the current resistance level, we will keep balancing.

No significant reports tomorrow.

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PMA for November 6

LTF:
Remains the same, smaller balance within the large balance area.

STF:
Market opened almost at close and went downwards since the open thanks to LTF sellers, LTF buyers disappeared. The profile has two HVNs, one created during the midday pause, the second after settlement. The LVN between them may serve as a resistance.
Tomorrow we will see if the late buyers were just covering shorts.

Minor European reports tomorrow.

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  #595 (permalink)
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Market was today a one way downards.

At 141.55, POC is lower than the three previous days and also lower than weekly POC (141.80). Prices do close below the weekly PP, with S1 (141.03) as a logical target.
There are two HVN, one a shade above POC and the other one at the far end of the value, at 141.21.

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Result is a rather big red candle with a small bottom spike.

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On the 4H graph with ICHIMOKU cloud, we can see that prices are in contact with the cloud and that a reaction happened there.

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On the 4H graph, I drafted a downard channel and an horizontal support line, former resistance level (the two yellow arrows). Prices are now below MA 23 and 44.

MA 44 (141.43) and MA 23(141.75) are two first levels of resistance and above HoD(141.97)
On the support level, below the horizontal support (141.20) we do have the 140.82 support.

For tomorrow, I am expecting some sort of retracement and the market to explore the valley between the two HVN. It happens that MA 44 level is 38.2% and that POC (141.55) is a shade above 50%.

As said in a previous post, I have a bearish biais and may try to sell the tops rather than buying the lows....

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Market opened with a small upward gap, explored the side up, met some reactive Sellers at HoD (141.44) which pushed the market down to LoD (141.06). market closed about less than 10 ticks higher.

At 141.44, POC is lower than yesterday : Sellers are still in control of the market.


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Result is a red candle, smaller than the previous one. Prices are getting closer from the 140.82 former resistance.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Shikou Span is below the price curve, that's bearish and that prices are near to the bottom of the cloud : a reaction is expected.


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On the 4H graph, I see the Future Bund contract in its downard channel, with MA 44 acting as resistance.

141.44/47 is a first resistance, then 141.60 and then the resistance oblique of the downard channel.
On the support side, below LoD (141.06) there is 140.80 and below MA 20 D at 140.60. Far below there is MA 50 D at 139.50.

Tomorrow, on top of ECB, there are US figures released at 2.30 pm.

I am therefore expecting a non directionnal morning and a trendy afternoon.

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BOBL as a guidance

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A 1 day graph of BOBL.

I do see a tower top, the japanese figure on top of a rise with one big green candle, some small candles in between and a big red candle.

It is an indication of a reverse trend to downards.

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SCHATZ for target ?

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Schatz in 1h.

I do see a flag.
If I try to count some elliot waves in a 5 downard waves, we may be in the 4th one, which shall not go over 110.510 (the bottom of wave 1). It is the case so far.

Wave 5 shall bring Schatz to 110.410, which is to say about 0.080 points from present price.

It is not so easy to give an equivalent for BUND, about 60/70 ticks below present Bund price if Shcatz breaks flag's support.

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Another time completely mistaken.

Market opened roughly were its closed and traded sideways waiting for the BCE.

At 1.45 pm, upon release of the new BCE rates, market rocketed to 141.80. During Mario's press conference, buyers pushed prices to the HoD(142.10) but such move was short lived, reactive Sellers entered into the market which closed at 141.87.

At 141.88, the closing level, POC is higher than the two previous days but below Monday's level. There is also a selling tail from 141.90 to 142.10. and two HVN, one a t 141.75/82, a shade below POC and the other one at opening level (141.20), with almost no volume exchanged in between

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Result is a green candle which almost swallows the two previous ones, with good volume. However, about one third of such volume is concentrated in the hour when the upper spike (the selling tail) happened. Market seems to be in a 140.80 - 142.30 range.


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On the 4H ichimoku graph, we can see that the cloud lower hedge provided a good support. Prices are trying to get out from the cloud but shikou span is still below the price line.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that market exit by upwards from the downard channel but that there is a resistance at 142.08/10 level.

Above such level, there is 142.18 and 142.32
On the support side, we have MA 44 and 23, at 141.50 and below 141.06/10 level.

Tomorrow there are important US figures released. I am expecting the market to range between 142.10 and 141.50

Good Night.

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Market opened rouglhy where it closed Thursday, explored the high, making its HoD at 141.95, below Thursday's HoD, met some reactive Sellers and then traded sideways but below the open level during the morning.

Upon release of the US figures, incentive Sellers took the lead and sent the market down to LoD (140.87), a shade above the 140.82 horizontal support which was not tested.
Market closed less than 10 ticks above LoD.

At 141.71, POC is lower than Thursday. Value is extended and there is one HVN around POC, substancial volume traded int the 141.25 - 140.90 range and almost none in the 141.56 - 141.36 area.

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Result is a big red candle, almost a loop belt which swallows the three previous true candle's true corpses.


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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices failed to exit the cloud from upward and that instead they exit by below. Shikou span bounced below the price line and is now intalled far below. Technically, market is in a bearish mode.


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On the 4H graph, I drafted a downard squared broadening. Prices are near the support oblique and the horizontal support line. MA 23 and 44 made the Death Cross.

Here, either the market does a new rotation and goes back to the horizontal resistance at 142.05 or exits by below, with then a 139.60 target.

The more likely is however a partial rotation, the market going upwards and reversing at for instance MA 44 level, around 141.50 or just below the almost non quotation area (141.36-56) to then break the support oblique and the 140.82 horizontal support to rush to the 139.60 target.

141.36-56 is a resistance level, then 141.95 -HoD), HoW (142.10) and finally last week HoW (142.32.
On the support side, below 140.82 there is MA 20D at 140.70 and then MA 50D at 139.60, the target level.....


On a weekly basis, the candle is red and, almost a loop belt, and makes a huge black cloud on the previous candle, at the top of the rise from 136.60.
Weekly POC is at 141.87, a shade higher than the previous week and there is a HVN in the 141.12 - 25 area.

Weekly PP is at 141.33. Prices ended below. It is to be noted that weekly PP is close to the non quotation area of Friday (141.36-56) and MA 44 (141.50) which makes such area as a good candidate for a reverse would the market rises Monday morning.

As you may understand, I will have a bearish biais in my ID trading as long as prices do remain below MA 44 but may play the partial rotation, holding long positions for a very short time.

Have a good week-end.


Last edited by MARS; November 9th, 2013 at 11:59 AM. Reason: clerical mistakes
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