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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #51 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-14 - 2013-01-18

An inside up week on rising volume.

The intraday charts show a pattern similar to that of last week: Monday - Wednesday up, sharp drop on Thursday, up again on Friday.

The 5-day volume profiles show the market is bracketed between 143.39 (R) and 142.95 (S). Next levels of S/R are 144.27 and 142.87. The latter coincides with the PoC of Friday.

The daily charts shows that the down trend which started in December is still valid. The intraday up spring from previous Friday (2013-01-11) - which triggered the latest up swing - is also still valid.

Tomorrow is a Holiday in the USA: Martin-Luther-King Day. Stock Markets and Bond Pits are closed, Globex will be open partially.

Such days usually are low volume and low range days. On Tuesday 11:00 CET (=05:00 EST) the influential ZEW report is due. This may further support a wait-and-see attitude in the market.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-20.01.2013-22.29.45.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-20.01.2013-21.58.38.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-20.01.2013-22.27.03.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-18.01.2013-22.07.27.png  
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  #52 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-21

A well below average volume and well below average range day - due to the Holiday in the USA. Another inside day.

The market made a nice down move in the morning and a smaller one in the afternoon.

The 5-day volume profile shows 143.10 as nearest resistance and 142.87 as nearest support. After that 144.27 and 142.70.

The daily volume profiles show 142.37 as support. The level that stopped the down move last Friday.

Today should not be analyzed too much, maybe simply be ignored.

Tomorrow at 11:00 CET (=05:00 EST) the ZEW report will be released and could cause the market to break out to the up- or downside.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.01.2013-22.10.15.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.01.2013-22.09.27.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.01.2013-22.12.51.png  
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  #53 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-22


Average volume and average range, an up day.

A very strange day: After the stock markets opened DAX dropped more than 110 points within 90 minutes. ESTX50 dropped too, while the ES showed only a moderate down move. As to the cause there two different rumors: First attributes the drop to the monetary easing by the BoJ another one to the rumors about Bundesbank's Weidmann.

The very positive ZEW report caused the stock markets to rise again. The negative US figures at 14:30 and 16:00 CET (=08:30 EST and 10:00 EST) caused an initial drop in the stock markets again but then stock markets shook off these news and rose into the close. ESTX50 is back to yesterday's close, DAX not quite as positive.

Bunds shook off the positive ZEW report after an initial drop and rose till market closed.

The daily chart shows that the market is in a contracting triangle since 2013-01-11.

The 5-day volume profile now shows S/R at 143.10(142.90) and 144.30.

The daily volume profiles show support at 142.37 and resistance at 144.

The last screenshot shows one volume profile from 2013-01-11 15:00 till today's close. There is buying below the level of 142.60, a clear peak between 142.85 - 142.90 and selling around 143.30.

For tomorrow I see only one report. Stock markets look strong and determined to rise. In view of the volatility of the last days and the susceptibility to rumors I find it hard to make any guesses as to the possible direction: Wait and see.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.01.2013-22.07.07.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.01.2013-22.05.47.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.01.2013-22.10.07.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.01.2013-22.16.05.png  
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  #54 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-23

Average volume and slightly below average range, an up day.

Market rose above the high of 2013-01-16 (143.64) but not yet above the high of 2013-01-09 (143.77). The intraday chart shows some similarity to yesterday's: an up/down swing in the morning and then an up move to the HoD.

The 5-day volume profiles now show three levels of support, only one level of resistance.

Resistance
• 144.15.

Support
• 143.30 (= today's PoC)
• 143.10
• 142.87.

The daily volume profiles show 144.00 as next level of resistance.

Tomorrow a handful of reports is due, so I do not expect an intraday behavior similar to today's.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-23.01.2013-22.12.55.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-23.01.2013-22.11.15.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-23.01.2013-22.16.07.png  
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  #55 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-24

Above average volume and above average range, a down day.

Market started to move up at 8:30, maybe driven by the drop of the Apple stock. At 9:00 stock markets opened and immediately dropped, maybe additionally driven down by the negative Spanish employment figures.

Bunds shot up on relatively low volume and seem to have triggered some stops when going above 143.80. This can be seen by price levels which show only trades on the ask-side, no bid trades at these levels. About 1200 - 2000 contracts pushing the price up by about 10 ticks.

The 30 -minute chart showed a reversal candle at 9:00, but that was not to be.

The positive reports at 9:30 and 10:00 reversed the down move in the stock markets and stopped the up move in Bunds.

Bunds were then pushed up on lower volume to 144.00 but here no stops seem to have been triggered.

Bunds dragged along and started to drop in earnest after the positive reports for the US markets were released.

The value area and daily PoC are up compared to yesterday's values but the thick volume right at the top must be interpreted as selling.

The down move stopped just shy of yesterday's VAL.

In spite of the down bar today: by the daily chart we are in an up trend since 2013-01-11. Market made higher highs and higher lows since then.

The 5-day volume profiles show three levels of support and one level of resistance.

One level of Resistance
• 144.15.

Three levels of Support
• 143.10
• 142.93
• 142.74.

The daily volume profile shows 143.97 as PoC (not much change from the previous 144.01) and 142.91 as support.

There are not many reports scheduled for tomorrow. At 10:00 CET (=04:00 EST) the German ifo report. Probably not as spectacular as the ZEW, but may be used to push the market around.

There should be some follow-up selling tomorrow, else I'm looking for long trades. May be too early, we will see.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.01.2013-09.44.44.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.01.2013-22.16.38.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.01.2013-22.17.16.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.01.2013-22.21.04.png  
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  #56 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
Above average volume and above average range, a down day.

Market started to move up at 8:30, maybe driven by the drop of the Apple stock. At 9:00 stock markets opened and immediately dropped, maybe additionally driven down by the negative Spanish employment figures.

Bunds shot up on relatively low volume and seem to have triggered some stops when going above 143.80. This can be seen by price levels which show only trades on the ask-side, no bid trades at these levels. About 1200 - 2000 contracts pushing the price up by about 10 ticks.

The 30 -minute chart showed a reversal candle at 9:00, but that was not to be.

The positive reports at 9:30 and 10:00 reversed the down move in the stock markets and stopped the up move in Bunds.

Bunds were then pushed up on lower volume to 144.00 but here no stops seem to have been triggered.

Bunds dragged along and started to drop in earnest after the positive reports for the US markets were released.

The value area and daily PoC are up compared to yesterday's values but the thick volume right at the top must be interpreted as selling.

The down move stopped just shy of yesterday's VAL.

In spite of the down bar today: by the daily chart we are in an up trend since 2013-01-11. Market made higher highs and higher lows since then.

The 5-day volume profiles show three levels of support and one level of resistance.

One level of Resistance
• 144.15.

Three levels of Support
• 143.10
• 142.93
• 142.74.

The daily volume profile shows 143.97 as PoC (not much change from the previous 144.01) and 142.91 as support.

There are not many reports scheduled for tomorrow. At 10:00 CET (=04:00 EST) the German ifo report. Probably not as spectacular as the ZEW, but may be used to push the market around.

There should be some follow-up selling tomorrow, else I'm looking for long trades. May be too early, we will see.




Thank you!

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  #57 (permalink)
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terapiaintensiva View Post



Thank you!

Be careful and read that too: "...May be too early, we will see...."

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  #58 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
Be careful and read that too: "...May be too early, we will see...."

Yes, thank you!

As usual I do 2/3 trade during the day. Long and short.
Today the first trade I am waiting is long.

Let's see.

Thank you, again.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-25

Just a few observations about today.

Well above average volume and well above average range, a down trend day.

Highest volume since a long time: last June saw two days with more than a million contracts traded.

In the first hour the market moved up on low volume and was pushed up above the latest swing high of yesterday. It started to drop well before the release of the ifo report. The positive ifo report then drove it down through all support levels.

It stopped just below the old PoC of 142.37 from 2013-01-11: the day the little up trend had begun. Dropped well below this value in the evening hours on (for this time of day) high volume.

That up trend is broken now, the down trend from 2012-12-10 is still intact.

When dropping below 142.52 the market must have triggered some stop losses: there are several price levels where only the bid side was traded. See screen shot. 142.50 is today's PoC, probably more of a coincidence than anything else?

Looking for long trades today was definitely no good idea.

I'll prepare for Monday/next week on Sunday.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-25.01.2013-17.13.07.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-25.01.2013-22.05.56.png  
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  #60 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
Just a few observations about today.

Well above average volume and well above average range, a down trend day.

Highest volume since a long time: last June saw two days with more than a million contracts traded.

In the first hour the market moved up on low volume and was pushed up above the latest swing high of yesterday. It started to drop well before the release of the ifo report. The positive ifo report then drove it down through all support levels.

It stopped just below the old PoC of 142.37 from 2013-01-11: the day the little up trend had begun. Dropped well below this value in the evening hours on (for this time of day) high volume.

That up trend is broken now, the down trend from 2012-12-10 is still intact.

When dropping below 142.52 the market must have triggered some stop losses: there are several price levels where only the bid side was traded. See screen shot. 142.50 is today's PoC, probably more of a coincidence than anything else?

Looking for long trades today was definitely no good idea.

I'll prepare for Monday/next week on Sunday.




Waiting for your next report...e grazie mille.

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