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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #581 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and traded sideways upto US employment data release.
Incentive Buyers pushed prices up untl the end of the session.

POC is only at 139.90 but volume is centered in three HVN. One around POC, another one around 140.20 and the bigger one at 140.50. Value is therefore almost identical to the range.

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Result is a big green candle, almost a loop belt wich exit the downard broadening structure, giving a target of about 142 to be reached within the end of next week.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contract rise ended at the high end of October 10th 4H tombstone doji.

HoD (140.64) is obviously a resistance and 140.87 is the next one.
On the support side, 140.20, where one HVN is located is a first support and below MA 44 at 139.80.

For tomorrow, I would not be surprised to see some sort of retracement and the market exploring the valley between 140.50/55 and 140.20, 140.20 being a good level to take a long position. If market begins to rise with modest volume, I will therefore look for a short to be repurchased very soon.

The trend is clearly upward but market has however to get rid of 140.64 4 resistance which could become some sort of triple top if not evercomed soon.

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  #582 (permalink)
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PMA for October 24

LTF:

Large balance area, shorter downward channel broken.

STF:
Market opened at previous high with initiating buyers in charge at first and responsive sellers second (fueled by the bund auction?) and tested yesterday’s last high volume node. Since no more sellers appeared there, market went back up and extended the range up a bit. Finished with responsive sellers back down after no more buyers were found.

Market failed to form extremes and failed to extend the range down. Forces are getting equal and the market may be starting to pause even though it seems to (i) still be accepting prices higher and (ii) as yet has not found new value to balance around. Also, until competitive sellers appear below the current low, the market is not ready to discontinue the up move.

A day full of reports tomorrow.

Successful trading.

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Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday, made a first high, tested then the low side, making its LoD and then rose and made its HoD (140.90). Closing was at 140.77. Range was small and value is rather extended.

At 140.74, POC is higher than yesterday.

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On the 1 day graph, we can see that today's candle is a spinning top, that lower spike end is Tuesday's candle true corpse top and that closing is below the horizontal resistance. HoW of the week beginning on September 29th (140.86) has been tested and is holding so far.

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The 4H graph does not tell more. Short term target is still 142.20

140.90 is obviously a resistance and a possible double top. Above there is 142.40.
On the support side we will have today's LoD (140.55) and below 140.22 and then the 139.90- 140.00 area.

If tomorrow, the market fails to break the 140.90 resistance, a retracement of the rise since 139.80 has to be foreseen. Breaking the 140.90 resistance will open the way to the 142.20 target.

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  #584 (permalink)
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Waiting for the US....

This morning so far, market is in a 140.77 - 92 range after Buyers failed to break the 140.90 resistance.

I think that the US statistics this afternoon willl make the market exit such range.
Next attempt to break the 140.90 shall be the good one. If there is no such attempt, market may retrace the rise since 139.80 :
23.6 : 140.64
38.2 : 140.48
50 : 140.35
61.8 : 140.22
72.8 : 140.10

Have a good trading afternoon.

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PMA for October 25

LTF:

Forming an upward channel within the large balance area.

STF:

Market opened just a couple of ticks below previous day’s POC and traded within a range for the whole morning testing the low for aggressive LTF sellers who never came. On the contrary, buyers kept coming in until they broke higher to places where we have not been a long time. Then the market rejected the high on quite large volume and sellers finally sent the market back to close near open. The day has several separate high volume nodes with no range extension down and an extreme at the top. We might have finally found sellers and we will see if they succeed in sending the market lower tomorrow in search of buyers.

Even though it is Friday tomorrow, we still have some reports to look forward to.

Successful trading.

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  #586 (permalink)
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Market opened rougly where it closed and traded sideways all morning. In the afternoon, intiative Buyers made the market to rise and at 141.20 level they found reactive Sellers which pushed the market down to where it opened.

POC is only a shade upper than yesterday and value is concentrated on the lower part of the range : there is a selling tail.

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Result is a very neat tombstone doji. Market closes again below the 140.80 horizontal resistance.


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The 4H hour graph does not bring much information.

HoD (141.22) is obviously a resistance and far above 142.40
On the support side, below LoD (140.72) there is 140.22 (october 18th top) and further below 140 (MA 20D), with MA 44 not far at 139.95.

I have the feeling that we have seen HoW at 141.22 and that Sellers may explore whether there are Buyers at lower prices. Therefore, if market opens tomorrow at about closing level and rises gently I will look for a short position. The 142.20 target is however still valid but will likely not be reached within this week.

Good Night.

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Market opened with a small upward gap, filled it, making its LoD, then rose, making its HoD before mid morning and then traded sideways but ended at HoD level (141.12). Therefore, for the first time, market closed above the 141.80 level since early August.

At 141, POC is some 15 ticks above Thursday's value which was also a shade above Wednesday one : Buyers are still in control of the market.


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Result is a green loop belt above the 140.80 horizontal resistance.


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On the 4H graph, I do see a rising channel.

141.20 (HoW) is an obvious resistance and above 142.31/40 (former HoW).
On the support side, 140.82 has now became a support. Below I do see140.55 and 139.90 (MA 44 4H).

Weekly candle is a green loop belt and weekly POC, at 140.82, is far above last week POC and also above all POC since early August. Weekly PP is at 140.63, R1 at 141.60 and R2 at 142.10, not far from the dowanrd broadening target (142.20) which is still valid.

Being the horizontal resistance and also weekly POC, 140.80 is an important level. As long as prices do remain above, I will have a bullish biais in my trading, buying the bottoms and selling the tops.

For Monday, would market opens broadly where it closed Friday and gently decreases, getting closer from 140.80 but not below, I will look for a long.

Have a nice Sunday.

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  #588 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed Monday. Incentive Buyers pushed the market up to 141.32. There reactive Sellers entered and pushed prices down to 140.94, making there the LoD. From there reactive Buyers pushed prices up to 141.29 and market fixed at 141.24. During the nighr session and in a scarce volume, market made its HoD at 141.45 ad closed a shade less.

At 141.18, POC is higher than the previous days, there is a HVN at 141.22 and not much volume traded above.


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Result is green candle with a shaved head.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future market tried to exit down from the rising channel but failed to do so.
MA 23 was in support.

HoD (141.45) is a resistance, above 141.59 (R1) and then 142.10 (R2) not far from the 142.20 target.
On the support side we will have, below LoD (140.94), 140.80 then 140.34 (MA 44) and 140.16 MA 20D).

Tomorrow, I would not be suprised if market goes back to HVN (141.22) to find some support, with R1 (141.59) as upper end of the range. After the FED's FOMC at 7 pm, cards may be reshuffled....

Take care.

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Market opened with a small upward gap, and after making a small low, almost immediately and regularly rose up to HoD (141.89) which was reached during night session. When FOMC minutes were released, market dropped and ended a shade below its opening.

POC is at 141.54, much higher than yesterday and there is a HVN at 141.58.


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Result is a very neat tomstone nearly doji. Top of the market was 141.89, to be compared to a 142.20 target.


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4H graph does not show much.

HoD (141.89) is an obvious resistance and above R2 at 142.12.
I do ses 141.30 as a first support and below 140.80

I think the upward move from 138.80 on October 16th is over. Would tomorrow candle be red, we may have an evening star. Therefore, if market rises gently tomorrow morning or open with a downard gap, I will look for a short.

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I was completely wrong in my previous forecast, hopefully, I did not shorted the market this morning.

Market actually opened with an upward gap and traded sideways above the open level until European CPI was issued. Incentive Buyers pushed then prices upto the HoD 142.32, overshooting the 142.20 target (unfortunately without me.....). in the afternoon, with the release of US figures, reactive Sellers entered into the game and after reaching 141.72, buyers came back and market closed at 142.02.

At 142.04, POC is much higher than yesterday and value is on the upper half of the range, giving the day a "p" shape.

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Result is a rather big green candle with an upper spike.


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On the 4H graph, I do see a bearish divergence, prices are higher while fast stochastics are lower

I am therefore expecting some sort of retracement tomorrow and whether the opening level holds or not will be my guidance.

Only one important US data on the afternoon and afterwards TGIF.

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