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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #571 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap, shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and made its
HoD (139.90).

Reactive Sellers then pushed prices down and market traded sideways in a small range all day session.

On night session, market dropped with US bonds and made its LoD (139.27) reaching the 139.35 target given in the previous post.
Such move was made with almost no volume. Therefore POC is at 139.73, where HVN is as well, given the day a "d" shape.

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Result is a red candle which lower end is at ICHIMOKU's upper hedge level.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that market ended at 19th september top. It is to be seen whether such level will be a strong support or not.

Below 139.38, I do see MA 50 D (138.85) as a support and then nothing much before 138.02
On the resistance side, above 139.90 we do have 140.10 and then 140.45 and 140.62-82.

So much depends on the US that I will not run the risk to make a forecast on tomorrow's opening.

Demain, il fera jour.....

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  #572 (permalink)
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PMA for October 16

LTF:

Intact.

STF:
Market opened near close, at the little balance area from yesterday’s evening and remained there for all morning with lots of sellers piling the orders in. However, buyers pushed the market up to run the stop-losses and only after hitting the previous value are low market went down. Initial balance was extended in both directions; it is a neutral day with little rotations, very uncertain, still waiting for news.

Successful trading.

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  #573 (permalink)
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Market opened almost where it closed Monday, traded sideways all morning, rose early afternoon to make its HoD
(139.55) where reactive Sellers push down prices to LoD (139.14). Closing was a shade more than LoD.

At 139.35, POC is much lower than yesterday and value is rather extended.

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Result is a red candle with two small spikes. Prices ended in the ICHIMOKU cloud. At 138.85, MA 50 is a support the market could very well try to test tomorrow.

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4H graph does not tell much.

First serious support is MM 50 D (138.85) and below lower BB at 138.50.
On the resistance side we will have, above HoD (139.55), MA 20 D (139.70).

Still waiting for the US situation to clarify....

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  #574 (permalink)
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PMA for October 17

LTF:
Downward channel intact.

STF:
Market opened below close, filled the gap but was not able to extend up much more and started to accumulate just like the previous days. After several unsuccessful tests to go higher, sellers pushed the market finally down. Even though the market started to build value near low, US builders’ low confidence might have kicked responsive buyers back into action and market went back up. The final up leg of the move was late and on low volume. Market grinds down in rather small rotations, waiting for major news.

Some volatility expected tomorrow also due to few significant reports.

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  #575 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap, filled the gap and traded sideways all morning. In the afternoon, incentive Buyers took the lead and market rose to make its HoD (139.76) during the night session.

At 139.46, POC is higher than the two previous days.

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Result is a hammer. Its lower spike ends at ICHIMOKU's uper hedge and MA 20D is topping its higher spike.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 is toping prices and that last candle is a summit doji.
Fast stochastics are at knocking the roof.

139.80 is a resistance and above there is 140.54, 140.65 and 140.87 (last weeks HoW).
On the support side, below 139.26-33 we have 138.80.

Tomorrow there is no statistics and I am expecting a quiet non directionnal day. I would therefore be contrarian.

TGIF.

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  #576 (permalink)
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Reverse head and shoulders ?

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On the 4H graph, we could see the beginning of a reverse H&S, with 139.80 as the neck line.
If there is a refusal on such level Friday morning, we would sell and target the second shoulder, around 139.30/40.

Next week could see the 140.80 target achieved if 139.80 horizontal resistance is overcomed.

Same figure could be seen on BOBL

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  #577 (permalink)
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Market opened where it closed yesterday, shyly explored whether some lower prices would attract Sellers and then incentive Buyers made prices rocketing and by noon, HoD (140.24) was reached. Some reactive Sellers entered then into the market and closing was less than 20 ticks lower than HoD.


At 140.06, POC is much higher than the previous one which was also much higher than the one before. Buyers are in control of the market. There is a HVN around POC, which gives the day a "p" shape.

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Result is a rather extended green candle with two small spikes.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is on support. I drafter a downard broadening channel.
In the case of an upward exit, target is 142.20. If Bund Future Contract fails to go above the resistance oblique, prices could very well go down to look for the supporting oblique, about 140 to 150 ticks below.

Weekly candle is a hammer but where it is placed, I do not give it some meaning.
Weekly POC is at 139.35, lower than the ones related to the two previous weeks : Buyers may not be as strong as it seemed at the end of this week.

PP for next week is 139.67. As long as prices are above such level, R1 at 140.59 is a logical target. That would mean going above the resistance oblique of the dowanrd broadening channel.
Going below weekly PP would be rather negative as there is almost no support from ICHIMOKU cloud next week.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #578 (permalink)
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Complementary views

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A 4H view of BOBL. I drafted a squared downard broadening structure. Either the resistance is overcomed and target is 125.00 or prices look for the supporting oblique.


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A 4H view of SCHATZ. I do see a V bottom. Target is 110.50 if prices go above the horizontal resistance.

I will not try to short the german bonds markets if these two horizontal resistances are overcomed but rather try to jump in the first available coach and stay aboard for the whole journey.

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  #579 (permalink)
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Market opened with a small downard gap, closed the gap and then trade sideways on a very small range.

POC is a shade lower than Friday and volume of the day is very small.

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Result is an harami.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 is on support and that market made a 23.6 retracement of the 138.78 - 140.24 last week range.

139.80 (MA 44) is a support, below 139.70 (38.2 retracement) and then 139.50 (50% retracement). Far below there is obviously 138.80.
On the resistance side we will have the resistance oblique (about 140.15 then 140.65 and 140.87).

I have the feeling that Bund Future contrat is taking some distance from the resistance oblique in order to break it.
If it happens, market could rise fast.

Therefore, tomorrow, as long as prices are above MA 44 or near by, I will have a bullish biais on my ID trading, particularly if opening level holds.

The employment related US figures tomorrow could give the Bund market some reasons to resume its upward trend. In the case resistance oblique is overcomed, short term (couple of weeks) target is 142.20.
The other alternative tomorrow is that market looks for some support down below.

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Missing graphes


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