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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #561 (permalink)
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PMA for October 9

See snapshot.
The market does not want to move without any news.
FOMC.
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  #562 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed, then Buyers pushed price upto 140.65, which is to say above the 140.45 horizontal resistance but such attempt was to be short lived and reactive Sellers entered ito the market and pushed the prices down to the opening level. Night session was eventless and market closed a shade above the opening level.

At 140.23, POC is about 10 ticks above yesterday. Value is concentrated on the lower part of the range, giving the day a "d" shape.

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Result is a shooting star, almost a tombstone doji.
Shikou Span remains below the ICHIMOKU cloud.


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On the 4 H graph, we can see the tombstone doji on the resistance and that MA 23 and 44 are merged.
140.65 is an obvious resistance and above 140.87/99 and 141.33
On the lsupport side we will have 140.11 then 139.95and below the more serious 139.70/75

Today market tested the upper limit of the horizontal flag, therefore we could expect tomorrow a test of its lower limit.

Ideal scenario would be a gentle rise in the morning, in order to explore whether there are Buyers at higher prices and then a drop to the lower limit of the horizontal flag.

Good Night.

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  #563 (permalink)
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PMA for October 10


@MARS seems to have summed it up already. Below is the same opinion written in other words .

LTF:
The same.

STF:
Market opened below yesterday’s high, tested yesterday’s POC but was rejected and buyers sent it up. Competing buyers tested the composite LVN where they were met by strong selling response. An extreme was formed after which the market kept on going down and ended below open and created a weak low.

Market keeps on balancing within the current balance area. Prices above were tested and rejected. With the weak low we may test the other side of the balance.

A few reports tomorrow, ECB President speeches

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  #564 (permalink)
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Market opened with a downard gap, filled such gap and rose upto the lower limit of yesterday's value, making HoD (140.12). There Sellers entered into the market and pushed prices down, first down to the opening level and later upto MA 20 Daily level, making LoD (139.51). Reactive Buyers then made the market to close at 139.69, which is to say in the 139.70-75 area.

There is a HVN at POC level (139.54) giving the day a "d" shape. POC is obviously much lower than the previous days.

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Result is a red candle with two spikes, the lower end of the lower spike being at MA 20D.

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  #565 (permalink)
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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 acted as resistance and that MA 23 is now below MA 44.
Fast stochastics are at the bottom and prices are at the bottom of the horizontal flag.

139.50 (MA 20 D) is a support, below 139.40 (the upper hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud) and further below MA 50 D (138.90).

On the resistance side, MA 44 and 23 (140.10-15) is a first one and above 140.50.

Tomorrow, I would expect some sort of retracement. However, if prices do remain below 139.70-75, we may very well enter into a downard trend for several days. As long as prices will remain below MA 23 and 44, I will have a bearish biais in my view of the market.

Good Night.

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PMA for October 11

LTF:
Below balance area, downward channel.

STF:
Market opened with a gap but could not move lower. Buyers explored higher but with not enough strength to return back to value. Right now we are in a small balance below the large balance area.

It seems that we also found buyers again though the market started to balance near low. Preferable way is up towards current value and we will see tomorrow if the buyers hold the level however if buyers are missing, the market may to test lower.

No really significant reports tomorrow. TGIF.

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  #567 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap, explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and met reactive Sellers which sent down the market to 139.46, its LoD. From there reactive Buyers sent the market upward, making its HoD (139.87). market closed in between, at 139.63, which is also POC.

At 139.63, POC is at the same level than Thursday. Value is rather extended.

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Result is a red candle with a lower spike, MA 20 being in support.


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On the 4H graph, I see the Bund Future Contract struggling not to exit downards from the 140.50 - 139.70 range.
Last two days were in a tiny 139.90 - 139.46 range.

On the support side, below the 139.46 level, we would have 139.37 (ICHIMOKU upper hedge) then 138.90 (MA 50D).
On the resistance side, above 139.90 we have 140/10 (MA 23 and 44) and above 140.45.

On a weekly basis, the candle is red and forms some sort of reverse hammer at mid Bolling bands level.
At 140.23, POC is actually higher than the previous week (139.89).
With this weekly candle and the previous one, retracement of the two weeks ago big green candle candle is 38.2
Weekly PP will be at 139.97 next week.

The exit from the tiny 139.90 - 139.46 range shall give the direction for Monday, either a return to MA 44 and weekly PP in the case of an exit upward or a more logical continuation of the downard move with a 138.90 target, which is to say MA 50D.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #568 (permalink)
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PMA for October 14

LTF:
Downward channel intact.

STF:
Market opened with a gap up, was sent down by the initiating sellers but met buyers near the same price as on Thursday. Responsive buyers were present till the very end of the day and prevented the market to go lower even before close. However they were not strong enough to extend the range upwards and create an extreme.
We have formed a little balance now with narrower rotations than before; plus there is the failed extension upwards.
The market is getting nervous. It may test the new balance area high and low some more time because there are not significant reports scheduled for tomorrow. Market just seems to wait to what happens in the US.

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  #569 (permalink)
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BOBL in 30'.

I traced a rising wedge. Target is 124.10 if exit by below and 124.40 if exit by above.
Approximate equivalent for BUND would be 139.50 and 140.35
As long as prices do remain below the opening level, the exit by below is the more likely alternative.

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PMA for October 15


LTF:
Downward channel.

STF:
A very hard day. Market opened with a gap up, below balance area high, tested above it, however there were not enough buyers today to push the market higher. Sellers then continuously pushed and fought the buyers and after a few very narrow rotations buyers gave up (probably went home  ) and sellers made a new low.
The push down was on very low volume with an extreme (where buyers appeared again) and a little balance area near the low. Until the lower prices are accepted, I assume the market will travel back up (towards current POC at 139.65).

A few European reports. They could have some impact given the uncertain nature of the current market.

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