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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #551 (permalink)
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PMA for October 4

LTF:
Downward channel in a balanced area intact.

STF:
Market opened at yesterday’s close, near low of current balance area, balance a bit, did not find any competing buyers to extend the range so the opposite occurred. Market tested the unfair low of the current balance and was pushed back up towards value only to be rejected near the balance area high. This is a neutral day with a very narrow initial balance which could indicate some change approaching, however the rotations are still quite wide. Today’s volume is skewed to the downside where it accumulated around POC of previous little balance area but was rejected. Close is back near open. There are still buyers on the unfair low, competing buyers appeared on today’s high. If the buyers are still active tomorrow, we may see a test of the upside.

Friday, no serious reports tomorrow.

Successful trading.
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  #552 (permalink)
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Where to go ? I do not know.

Market opened with a small gap down and after a short while dropped until it reached last Friday LoD (139.75) ) where reactive Buyers entered into the game and pushed up prices in order to close the gap at the end of the day session. During night session, Buyers continue to push untill they reached yesterday's HoD (140.46) where reactive Sellers made the market to close near its opening level.

At 140.15, POC is a lower than yesterday and a shade lower than Tuesday. Value is below 140.31.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is almost another doji with long legs, showing great uncertainty : the market does not know where to go.

We can note that upper hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud acted again as a support and that Shikou Span is just below ICHIMOKU cloud. Upper hedge of ICHIMOKU will be lower tomorrow....


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On the 4H graph, I drafted an horizontal flag (139.70 - 140.50) where the market seems at ease.
For how long ? Only time will tell.

As there are no US data tomorrow due to the shutdown, unless there is a news flow from Washington, I do not see why Bund Future shall escape from the horizontal flag. I will therefore trade accordingly on Friday.

As an agreement between the Republicans and the White House could take place during the week-end, I will strongly advocate not to hold OVW positions.

Good Night.

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  #553 (permalink)
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T BOND


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US T BOND 1H graph.

T BOND market may very well give the next trend to the BUND.
On this graph, I drafted a squared upward broadening structure, which in 70% of the cases has a downard exit.

Watch out the 132. 24'' level. If a one hour candle closes below, we may see the BUND going below the 139.70 leve for good. Alternatively, a 1 hour closing above the 133.29'' double top would see the BUND going above the upper hedge of the horizontal flag and resuming its move upward.

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  #554 (permalink)
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US T BOND 1H graph.

T BOND market may very well give the next trend to the BUND.
On this graph, I drafted a squared upward broadening structure, which in 70% of the cases has a downard exit.

Watch out the 132. 24'' level. If a one hour candle closes below, we may see the BUND going below the 139.70 leve for good. Alternatively, a 1 hour closing above the 133.29'' double top would see the BUND going above the upper hedge of the horizontal flag and resuming its move upward.

Good morning Mars, just a question: why do you watch tbond and not Tnote?

Thank you, have a good day


Ciao Hadamakov, thank you for your post

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  #555 (permalink)
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Good question.

I am following T Bonds because I have the feeling that it is the leading market for US treasuries and that I found a pretty good corelation with Bunds in the afternoon.

I never tried to follow T notes and I will have a look, to see if the correlation is better with T notes than with T bonds.

Have a nice day.

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  #556 (permalink)
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Another day within the range

Market opened roughly where it closed Thursday and explored shily the high side, making its HoD (140.35). From there reactive Sellers pushed prices down to make LoD (139.81) by 4 pm. Night session was eventless and closing was a shade higher than LoD.

At 139.90, POC is 25 ticks lower than Thursday and value is concentrated on the low part of the range, giving the day a "d" shape.

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Result is a red candle within Thursday range.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contract is near horizontal flag bottom, supporting oblique of the upward channel and MA 44.

Supports and resistances are broadly same as Thursday.


Weekly candle is red and forms a black cloud over the previous green candle.

For Monday, everything depends on whether, during the week-end, Republicans and Democrats came to some sort of agreement or not We may very well open with a downard gap, below the horizontal flag or open within the flag range, with or without a gap.
In the first case, I will wait for a pullback to open a short position, in the second case I may continue to buy the lower hedge and sell the upper hedge of the 139.75 - 140.45 range.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #557 (permalink)
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PMA for October 7

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LTF:
Balance area, downward channel.

STF:
After the rejection of high the previous day, market opened just a tick below the close with competing buyers who were once again overcome by the initiating sellers at the micro-composite POC of the current balance area. The market then balanced near and closed at one of the downside HVN putting in a very weak low. Because of that I would prefer shorts.

No major reports.

Successful trading.

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PMA for October 8

LTF:
Remains the same.

STF:
Market opened near yesterday’s value area high in a valley formed by the current balance and rejected the price immediately. It tested the low parameter once again but was overcome by buyers once again. After reaching the day’s high it fell back down. Very low volume and narrow rotations, quite uncertain market but no wonder. We are in the middle of the balance area so tomorrow’s development will depend on the open and news from US if any. If nothing happens, it may be just another uninteresting day.

A few minor European reports tomorrow.

Successful trading.

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  #559 (permalink)
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Another day within the 139.75 - 140.45 range

Market opened with an upward gap, mad a first high at 140.31, then came back at open level. From there, at about 11 am, market reached the upper limit of the range (140.45) where reactive Sellers made the market retreat. Night session was eventless.

At 140.20, POC is 30 ticks higher than Friday and value is rather extended but on a small range.

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Result is a green candle but with a rather big upward spike, almost a shooting star.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that the 140.45 horizontal resistance made a good job : prices are still in the horizontal flag.

140.45 is an obvious resistance and above 140.87/99 and then 141.33
On the support side MA 44 at 139.92 and below 139.7075, the horizontal support.

Same strategy for tomorrow, I buy a shade above 139.70, I sell a shade below 140.45 and I open a swing position outside the 139.75-140.45 range.

Good evening.

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Market opened a shade below Monday's closing, traded sideways around POC (140.12) and ended 5 ticks above the opening level. It was scalper paradise and a lost day for swingers.

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Result is a hammer with no particular meaning.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 made a good job as support. The space bewteen the horizontal resistance and the supporting oblique will be even smaller tomorrow. How long prices will stay within this area ?

Basically, same supports and resistances than yesterday.

Same strategy for Wednesday : I buy MA 44 and sell 140.45 level and I take a swing position above 140.45 and below MA 44.

It is to be noted that on the US market, the shorter the Bond duration, the less prices are holding.

Tomorrow at 8pm the FOMC report shall be released. Some volatility ahead.

Otherwise, waiting for Republicans and the White House to come to some sort of agreement.

Good Night.

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