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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #541 (permalink)
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Market opened rouglhy where it closed Wednesday, explored the low side, making its LoD (139.71) meeting there reactive Buyers, rose to explore the high side, making its HoD (140.09), meeting there reactive Sellers and then traded sideways to close almost at opening level.

At 139.84, POC is only a shade higher than yesterday and value is typical of a trendless day. Between yesterday and today, it seems that market found a balance.


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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is almost a small doji which makes an harami with the previous candle. Upward move is stopped for the time being. Top of today's quasi doji is 140.10 level and bottom is upper hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud. With a bit of imagination, a reverse Head & Shoulders can be seen, 140.00/10 being the neckline with a target at 143.70 if the 140.00/10 level is overcome.


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On the 4H graph, we can seen that fast stochastics eased a little, making easier for the market to resume its upward move. There is also obviously much space to go down before meeting the supporting oblique....

140.10 is a resistance and above I do see 140.46 and 140.99
138.70 is a support and below there is 139.0, then 136.60.

Tomorrow I will buy above 140.10 and sell below 138.70.
In between, I will try to buy a shade above 138.70 but I will refrain to sell a shade below 140.10 as I have the feeliing that the market wants to go up.

Good Night.

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  #542 (permalink)
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In addition to my last post, bollinger bands on TU 4H are extremely narrow which is the sign of a big move to come.
In which direction ?
Only time will tell.

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  #543 (permalink)
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Market opened rouglhy where it closed Thursday, made its LoD (139.74), checking that lower prices did not attract Sellers and came back to the opening level. After 11 am, initiative Buyers pushed the market up and HoD (140.54) was reached mid-afternoon.
Night session saw prices retreating a little and market closed at 140.36.

At 140.42, POC is much higher than the two previous days and value is on the high side of the range, giving the day a "p" shape.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, the upper hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud acted as support and candle of the day is green but with a small spike on top.

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On the 4H graph, I do see prices topping the resistance oblique of the upward channel.

On the resistance side, above HoD (140.54) there are 8 and 9 weeks ago HoW (141 and 141.32).
On the support side, below the 139.70-75 level, there is 139.55 (last week LoW) and then 138.90 (MA 44 TU 4H).

With the shutdown threat in the US, I have no idea how fixed interest rates markets could behave so I will closely watch the market before doing something.

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  #544 (permalink)
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market opened with an upward gap, explored the high side, making its HoD (140.87), then reactive Sellers entered into the market and pushed prices down to the LoD (140.22). Reactive Buyers took then the lead and market closed at 140.59.

At 140.58, POC is a bit higher than Friday and value is in the middle of the range.

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Result is a hammer at the very top.


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On the TU 4H graph, I only see MA 23 and 44 rising in paralell.

HoD (140.87) is an obvious resistance and above 140.99 and 141.32, former HoW.
LoD (140.22) is an obvious support and below 139.70-75 and then 139.10-15.

The hammer at the top could indicate that the upward move since 136.42 is coming to an end.
If prices do remain below today's HoD, and particularly if open level can not hold, I will give a bearish biais to my trading and look for a short position to target some retracement.

Good evening.

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  #545 (permalink)
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PMA for October 1

LTF:
The long-term balance is still intact, we have touched a higher line of the downward channel within the balance.

STF:
Market opened with a gap up, balanced a bit, however with not enough volume. Also, did not find any competitive buyers and established the initial parameter (high) with failed auction higher. The market then balanced on the low building energy for the drop towards Friday’s last HVN (also POC) and below. Aggressive sellers found reaction from buyers who created an extreme. However, volume remained up and the market was driven by buyers back towards it.

The last two trading days form sort of a balance with high currently weaker than low. We may continue balancing between those two extremes before ultimately deciding which way.

A few European reports in the morning, some US reports in the afternoon.

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PMA for October 2

LTF:
Large balance area intact.

STF:
Market opened in one of the LVNs from yesterday, headed up with competitive buyers but found aggressive sellers at yesterday’s POC who sent the price down towards single prints from last week where it balanced for the rest of the day. That balance moved a three-day POC lower. We will see tomorrow if the volume near low will dissipate down or gets rejected. Preferred way is down and market will show us.


Few important reports tomorrow as well as bond auction.

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  #547 (permalink)
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Market opened with a small downard gap and closed such gap first thing in the morning, making its HoD (140.61).
From there reactive Sellers pushed prices down and market made a first low (140.13)before noon.
From there some reactive Buyers appeared and pushed prices up but such move was to be short lived and by 4.30 pm market was making its LoD (140.07). Closing was a shade above (140.17).

At 140.19 POC is lower than the previous day. Such event did not happen in the last 6 trading days.
Value is concentrated in the lower part of the range, giving the day a "d" shape.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a red candle with a small spike on both ends.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is just below LoD.
140.00 was a resistance level early last week. It is to be seen whether such rather important level will hold or not tomorrow. In the second case, target would be 139.20, which is to say MA 44. If it does hold, we may test again yesterday's HoD (140.87).

Below the 140.00-07 support area, there is 139.70 (ICHIMOKU upper hedge and former last Thursday's and Friday's LoD) and further below MA 44 at 139.20.
On the resistance side, above HoD (140.61) we have yesterday HoD (140.87) and above 140.99 and 141.32 former HoW of about 10 weeks ago.

Tomorrow, on top of a Bund auction which result shall be known end morning, there is the ECB press conference and as if it not would be enough some US data and FED's chariman speaking as well later on.

I am therefore expecting a trendless morning and a trendy afternoon. As a consequence, I will refrain from trading on the morning, unless there is quick, safe and easy money to make, and wait for super Mario to give the trend.

Good Night.

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  #548 (permalink)
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Waiting for Mario

As expected, market traded sideways around open level.

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TU 30' graph.
I see a squared downard triangle with 140.10 as horizontal support. 139.70 is a likely target if support is broken.
If resistance oblique is overcome, 140.61 is the first target.

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On BOBL (same 30' graph) I see a downard wedge.

Bollinger bands are very narrow on TU 1h : a big move is to come soon.

Take care.

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  #549 (permalink)
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The big move I was expecting for today did not come.
Instead, the market was trendless but with a wider range than the morning one.

Market opened rougly were it closed yesterday, explored the high side, then came back to open level.
When US figure was released and afterwards during BCE press conference, market swingued from HoD (140.46) to LoD (139.92) to close near the open level.

At 140.31, POC is about 10 ticks higher than yesterday but lower than Monday and also than last Friday. There is a HVN at POC level, giving the day a "p" shape.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is almost a doji, which I think will be of continuation (of the downard trend since Monday's top).


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On the 4H graph, we can see that 140.00 level holded and that prices are at MA 23 level.


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On the 30' graph, we can see that MA 100 is topping prices in the last part of the session and moreover is beginning to decrease.

HoD (140.46) is a first resistance and above yesterday HoD (140.61), Monday's HoD (140.87) and then 140.99 and 141.33 (HoW of about 10 weeks ago)
139.92 (LoD) is a first support, then 139.70 and below MA 44 TU 4H (139.50).

Bollinger bands on TU upto 4 hours are getting narrow, advocating for a strong move soon.

If 140.00 level does not hold, prices could drop fast to at least 139.50.
Therefore, as long as prices are below today's HoD, I will have a bearish biais to my ID trading, particularly if open level does not hold.

However, if prices do go above such level (140.46) we may test again the upper resistances.

To end with a political note, now that the Italians seems to keep their prime minister, I have the feeling that Bond markets are very exposed to some sort of agreement between the Republicans and the White House on the shutdown issue, which could happen anytime.

Take care.


Good Night.

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PMA for October 3


LTF:

Downward channel within the balance area.

STF:
Market opened at the close, traded up, however because of no competing buyers and missing sellers it balanced below high for the whole morning. Responsive buyers tried to extend the range one more time but failed and sellers sent the market down towards unfair lows of the current balance area where it got rejected because buyers finally entered. However it seemed only temporarily as market then drifted down and closed near the open.

Currently we have established an unfair high and unfair low. There were responsive buyers on the low and if they remain there and maybe get more competitive, I would assume the market will test the other, upper, side. For now, the rotations are still quite wide and the market does not seem nervous enough to start something big but we will see if bond auctions and reports move it out of balance tomorrow.

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