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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #531 (permalink)
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137.66 target achieved (137.59 actually paid).


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  #532 (permalink)
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WHAOU

Market opened rouglhy where it closed yesterday, explored the high side at 138.30 and then went below the opening level and dropped to its LoD(137.59). During the night session, the FED and its surprise move sent all the markets to the sky, including Bonds. In few minutes, the Bund Future contract rocketed from 137.80 to 138.60 and ended at 139.06 after making its high at 139.17.

POC is at 137.74 and value is on the low side of the range, from 137.59 to 138.20, giving the day a "d" shape.
There is actually a big volume node at POC level. The FED's rise has been made with almost no volume and with no more than two TPO per price quoted.

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Result is a big green candle which swallows the two previous ones with substancial volume.
Such candle is in contact with upper Bollinger Band and not too far from the lower hedge of ICHIMOKU cloud.
Market also closed near the 139 resistance and not so far from MA 50D (139.36).
Shikou Span is on the verge of going above the candle line.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 was in support. Market ends near the oblique resistance of the upward channel which I redrafted.
The 4H candle swallows the previous 10 candles.....

MA 50D (139.36) is a first resistance and then 139.86, the top of the big red candle at the left of the 1 day graph.
On the support side, 137.55-66 is obviously a serious one and above, I don't see something relevant.

For many bond holders, the 5.30 pm fixing (137.72) will be their reference level at their 8.30 am opening.
How will they behave after so big a move and where the market will open tomorrow, I simply don't know.

I would expect the market to explore whether there are Buyers at higher prices before retracing and in such case I would cautiously look for a light short and take my profit quickly. If market begins by gently going down, I will look for a long.

Be cautious and take care.

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  #533 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap, made its HoD and immediately reactive Sellers pushed prices down. LoD was achieved around 3 pm. Night session did not bring something new and market closed near LoD.

POC is at 138.66, much higher than Wednesday and value is on the lower part of today's range, giving the day a "d" shape, the profile having a typical selling tail from 139.48 to 139.25

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Result is a big red candle in black cloud. MA 50D acted as a resitance and at the end of the day, 139.00 holds.
The ICHIMOKU cloud is acting as resistance as well. Such cloud will become thicker in the days to come.
Shikou Span failed so far to go above the candle line. Volume of today's red candle is bigger than yesterday's green candle. All together, these elements are showing market weakness at these price levels.

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On the 4h graph, we can see that september 18th HoD (136.47) acted as support and that Bund Future Contract is still in the upward channel.

Below 138.47, we will have 137.66 (MA 44 4H) which is very near to the supporting oblique of the upward channel.
On the resistance side, 139.00 is a first one and then 139.30 (MA 50 D).

As there are no statistics tomorrow, I am expecting volatility to be much lower than the two previous days.
Weekly POC, for the time being, is at 138.34 and I would no be suprised to see tomorrow the market trading sideways around such level within a 137.90 - 138.80 range.


Last edited by MARS; September 19th, 2013 at 05:40 PM. Reason: typing mistakes
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  #534 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday, rose gently and make its HoD around 9 am (138.91), a shade short of 139. It traded then sideways between open level and 138.80, trying unsuccessfully to rise more. Around noon Sellers entered into the market and pushed prices down to LoD (138.13). Reactive Buyers took then the lead and shily brung back prices to 138.50 which was closing level.

POC is at 138.48 while value is rather extended.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is almost a doji long legs. Shikou Span did not succeed in going above the candle line and the ICHIMOKU cloud shall be thicker next week.
As far as ICHIMOKU is concerned, as prices are below the cloud and shikou span is below the candle line, it is a bearish market.
Therefore, I think that the doji long legs will be of continuation : the downard move shall resume monday.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are almost in the middle of the upward channel and that MM 44 merges with the oblique support. I think that such oblique will be tested before long. If it does, it is to be seen whether it will hold or not.

Such MA 44 is obviously a support (around 137.85) above there is today LoD (138.13) and below 137.50. MA 20 D will be at 137.95.
On the resistance side, HoD (138.91) is a first one and above MA 50 D (139.25).

Candle of the week is also a doji long legs and next weekly PP will be at 138.45, almost where the market closed.
It shows the uncertainty where the market is : FED's suprise move made the market jump but higher rates to come are somehow anticipated.

The opening level and its capability to hold will be a good indication on whether Thursday's down move will go on or not.

Have a nice week-end.

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PMA for September 23

Market opened within one of the previous day's HVN and established the first parameter (high) where it found competitive sellers. Then it build volume between established high and low but the sellers were more aggressive and send the market down and filled in the minus development created by the up move on Wednesday. The seller won and we are now back where we were, i.e. within the medium-term balance. The market is between two HVNs. Tomorrow will show if they hold.

Ultimately, I expect the market to test the other side of the balance area in the near future, but market will tell.

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  #536 (permalink)
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Market opened rouglhy where it closed end of last week, rose upto 138.58 and then dropped to LoD (138.02), a shade below Friday's LoD (138.13), making a double bottom (actual double bottom was made on BOBL at 123.48).
From there reactive Buyers took the lead, sent back prices to open level and further pushed prices up to HoD (138.80). Night session was eventless and market closed near HoD.

POC is at same level as Friday (138.42) with a big volume node at 138.38). Value is rather extended on both sides of the volume node.

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Result is a green candle with a big lower spike. Shikou Span is on the verge of getting above the candle line. Prices are in the ICHIMOKU cloud. It is to be noticed that upper spike of Friday's candle is above today's candle top.
We can also see that MA 20D acted as support.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 acted also as support. On top of the upward channel, I drafted a broadening rising wedge, which is not as bullish.

138.02-12 is a support area and below last week LoW(137.59)
Monday's HoD (138.88) is a resistance then MA 50D (139.20), last week HoW (139.33) and finally ICHIMOKU cloud upper hedge (139.70).

For tomorrow, I do not know what the trend could be but I remember that IFO, at 10 am, usually brings volatility.
I therefore expect a directionless market before the figure is released and some trendy market afterwards.

Have a good night.

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  #537 (permalink)
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PMA for September 24

Market opened within Friday's value area and immediately auctioned lower, then tested the initial balance high and failed to extend the range. Sellers sent the market below Friday's low where it found buyers who finally pushed through the IB high and formed a HVN just below Friday's high. Close is almost at today's high. The high seems quite weak and we will see if the upmove continues tomorrow.

Right now we are above all medium-term HVNs and the preferred direction is down, however the HVN at the top might indicate an effort to go higher and test the unfair highs.

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Market opened rougly were it closed yesterday and after checking that lower prices did not attract Sellers, making therefore its LoD, prices were pushed up by initiative Buyers who regularly paid higher prices all day long.
Market closed near its HoD.

POC is at 139.17, higher than yesterday and value is extendend from 139.05 to 139.70. Buyers were in control of the market.

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Result in a green candle in loop belt. Shikou Span is clearly above candle line. Top of today's candle is just below ICHIMOKU cloud upper hedge.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future Contract is getting closer from the oblique resistance of the upward channel.

HoD (139.72) is a fist resistance and above August 13th HoD (139.85)
139.43 (last week HoW) is a first support then 138.60 and below 138.11 (MA 44D)

I would expect some sort of retracement tomorrow. Therfore, if market rises tomorrow morning with small volume and stays below 139.85, I will look for a short. Not very keen to go long with such overbought market.

Good Evening.

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PMA for September 25

Market opened at the high, auctioned a bit and created quite a narrow initial balance which was the first sign of a potential trend day. Market then started accepting value higher, consolidated a bit during noon and continued onetimeframing up for the whole day, closing near a new high.

There are several HVNs that are getting smaller going up. We are marching back towards previous value from the second half of last year, however because of smaller HVN near the high, I would expect a little break to catch the breath. Then we will see which POC takes control

US reports in the afternoon.

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  #540 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and traded sideways in a 40 ticks range centered on 139.75.

At 139.67, POC is higher than yesterday and value is the one of a trendless day.

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Result is a small green candle with a rather low volume. Top of the candle is above ICHIMOKU cloud and Shikou Span is far above the candle line. As per ICHIMOKU, Bund Future market is not anymore in a bearish pattern.

However, prices are still below the grey horizontal line which I traced below the group of candles within the yellow circle. The 140.00/10 level once was a support and I am anticipating that it vey well could behave as a resistance this time.

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On the 4H graph, the last candle is almost a doji and very close to the resistance oblique. Fast stochastics are at the top, but also fast stochastics on 1 day basis. I therefore have the feeling that the upward potential is very limited.


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On this 30' graph, I do see a possible squared upward broadening structure. Would prices go back to the 139.55/60 support and go below such support level, it would be the clear sign that the upward move is in jeopardy.
Alternatively, staying above the upper hedge of the ICHIMOKU cloud could mean that upward move still has some potential.

As previously said, 140.00/10 level could be an important resistance level that should be tested tomorrow, then 140.46 and above 141.99, both level being former HoW.
LoD (139.55) is a first support and below MA 50D (139.11), then ICHIMOKU cloud lower hedge (138.60) and finally MA 44 (138.40) wich is also upward channel supporting oblique level.

Would the 140.00/10 level be unsucessfully tested tomorrow morning, I will take a short position with a stop just above such level. I would only buy is such level is overcome with heavy volume or if it is gapped.

Good Night.

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