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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #521 (permalink)
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PMA for September 9

LTF:
For now the market seems to reach LTF balance area unfair low and bounced off it back to value.

STF:
Market opened a few ticks below yesterday’s low and responsive buyers send it up immediately (OD opening). Initiating sellers appeared in the middle of yesterday’s range, tested the initial balance and created the first development in the profile, however the competitive low full of buyers held. Responsive buyers then created single prints and initiating sellers tested the single prints without success. Market closed in the middle of the second development within the profile. The responsive buyer came really aggressive and monopolize the whole profile. The left single prints will act as a very strong support.

The market may still have some up momentum after such aggressive move and go back to value. So preferable way is up.

No major report tomorrow.

Successful trading.

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Last edited by hadamkov; September 8th, 2013 at 04:34 PM.
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  #522 (permalink)
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Market opened about where it closed Friday and traded sideways with no direction, between reactive Buyers and Sellers. On night session market dropped and closed at 137.47 but with almost no volume.

Range is rather small and value as well. At 137.52, POC is a shade lower than Fridays.

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Result is not very far from a doji.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 is the main obstacle to the market to exit upward the downard channel.
Above HoD (137.75) , MA 44 137.94 will be the main resistance and above MA 20D at 138.06.
As far as supports are concerned, below LoD (137.36) we may have the 137.08-28 area and then 136.42.

Tomorrow, if the market rises with gentle volume, I will look for a short below MA 44. If market drops with modest volume, I will look for a long above 137.28. If markets opens with much volume on one side, I will try to follow.

No statistics tomorrow either so I am expecting a day like today (usually I am mistaking while doing such kind of assumption).

Good Night.

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  #523 (permalink)
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PMA for September 11


LTF:
Still balancing, huge balance formed, unfair low rejected FOR NOW.

STF:
After a nice, neutral day, market opened in the middle of single prints from Friday with a gap down and started to accept value lower. Opening in the middle of the single prints also meant that the LTF buyers from Friday are not here anymore. There absence was then confirmed by the high created during IB by failed range extension. After a test of the high which held, initiating sellers sent the market down in a constant move to form a rather shortish trend day.
However, the range failed to extent down enough to find competition. There are still left some single prints below 136.50 from previous days. POC is near the middle but got rejected during the test. Close is near low. Today’s low seems a bit week, however we are approaching LTF unfair lows again so we might see the buyers again but who knows. Preferable way is up, back to value, but there might be a second test to get lower.

Tomorrow is bond auction and a few European and US reports but not major.

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Successful trading.

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  #524 (permalink)
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Market opened almost where it closed yesterday and regularly went up all day long. This day was almost identical to the previous one but in reverse. During the night session, the downard gap opened on the 10th morning was closed but with almost no volume.

POC is at 137.07 and value is rather extended.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a big green candle which almost swallows the previous red one. Volume of the day is however lower than yesterday.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contract is just below the resistance oblique of the big downard channel. Fast stochastics are at their maximum.

In TU 30', we can see that the Bund Future contract is in a upward channel.

137.30-40 is a first area a resistance then 137.70 (MA 44 TU 4H) then 137.85 (MA 20D)
If the resistance oblique of the dowanrd channel holds, 136.70 would be the first support and then 136.50-60.

Tomorrow, morning, if there is no gap and I see the market rising with modest volume, I will look for a short. If the resistance oblique is gapped I may look for a long. If the market rises with good volume and break the resistance oblique, I will wait for the throwback. If market drops, I may sell.

I am expecting a non directionnal market on the morning and a trend after US employment data is released at 2.30 pm.

Have a good evening.

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  #525 (permalink)
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PMA for September 13

LTF:
Still in balance that started in the beginning of 2012. Right now, little balance area forming near LTF unfair low. This little balance has two distinctive HVNs and an empty valley in the middle.

STF:
Market opened with a gap up and immediately started to accept higher prices. IB was relatively wide and after its creation market was grinding lower, building energy. The range failed to extend to the downside because there was no competition (no LTF sellers interested), however the subsequent extension by initiating buyers to the other side was rather significant. The movement after the report made a couple of wide swings only to be pushed back down into IB. It seems that the high was rejected for now and we may go back down to fill in the valley of the recent balance area. However the LVN at that area may be rejected sending the market back up.

Few US reports in the afternoon.

Successful trading.

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  #526 (permalink)
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Market opened with a gap up and used such gap as a support level, making its LoD (137.40) to reach HoD (137.94) after the US figure was released. Reactive Sellers sent then the market back to 137.60, not far from weekly PP. (137.53).

POC is substancially higher than yesterday 137.56 vs 137.07 and value is rather extended with two volume nodes, one at 137.75 and the other at 137.50.

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Result is a shooing star, with its spike in contact with MA 20D, which can be seen as the resistance of the downard move since early August.

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BOBL day candle is more frightening : a tombstone doji.
If there is a downard gap tomorrow morning, it would be a lost baby.....

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On the 4H graph, we can see that the resistance oblique of the downard channel has actually been gapped this morning but that the resistance level of 143.75-80 has not been overcome.

137.75-84, one of the volume nodes, is a resistance MA 20D is there as well. R1 is at 138.40 but it seems a bit far for tomorrow. On the support side we have the upper hedge of the upward gap opened this morning (137.40) and below the resistance obllique of the downard channel around 137.20, which is also MA 23 4H.

Tomorrow, if there is no downard gap, I am expecting a non directionnal day prior to the US statistics to be released in the afternoon.

Below the 137.75-80 level, I will have a bearish biais and capability of the opening level to hold will be my main guidance for tomorrow morning. On the afternoon, the US figures may give the day trend and also the weekly candle shape.

Good Night.

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  #527 (permalink)
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Same 4H graph than above but I traced the beginning of an upward channel. Prices are near the resistance oblique of such channel.

As can be seen, prices could go back as low as 136.80 without jeopardizing such new channel....and 137.20 would be mid-channel and on the "good side" of downard channel resistance oblique.

Time to sleep this time.

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  #528 (permalink)
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Market opened Friday morning with a downard gap, made its LoD at 137.16 and then regularly rose to reach HoD (138.16) after last US data was released. Its almost 100 ticks range ! Market ended a shade lower at the end of the day.

POC is at 137.94, where there is a big volume node, giving the day a "p" shape. Value is concentrated above 137.50.


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Result is a big green candle with good volume which swallows the previous candle.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contract made a throwback on the former resistance oblique of the downard channel (in grey), getting support from MA 23 4H and then rose to the resistance oblique of the upward channel.

Candle of the week is hammer, after another hammer, making a double bottom at 136.50-60.
PP for next week is 137.57. R1 is at 138.54 and s1 at 136.94.

Friday's HoD (which is also last week HoW) at 138.16 is an obvious resistance. Above I see 138.25 (week before last HoW, then 138.97 (2 weeks before last HoW) and above MA 50 D at 139.46.
as far as supports are concerned, 137.65 (MA 44 4H) below 137.40 then 137.16-20 and finally the supporting oblique of the upward channel, around 136.90.

No idea on where the market could go tomorrow but I feel that last week low shall not be seen again before long.

Good Night.

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  #529 (permalink)
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Bund market (like all the stock marckets) opened with an upward gap and during the day session traded sideways around the opening level. On night session, market dropped on small volume and filled the gap.

POC is higher than Friday which was higher than Thursday.
Value is concentrated on the upper half of the candle (from 138.30 to 138.60).

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Result is red candle, almost a loop belt, but at 5.30 pm, the day candle was a doji.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that night session ended on the former resistance oblique of the upward channel.

138.66 (HoD) is the first resistance, then 139 and on top 139.40.
On the support side I do see 138 then 137.86 (MA 20D) and below 137.50 (MA 23 and 44 4H).

Very difficult to predict where the market will open tomorrow so as many times, capability of the opening level to hold will guide my morning trading.

Good Night.

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  #530 (permalink)
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Market opened at 138.28, made its HoD (138.47) early morning and then dropped to its LoD (138.00) paid around 4.30 pm. Closing was not too far from LoD.

At 138.24, POC is lower than yesterday (but higher than Friday) and value is rather extended.
There are two volumes nodes, one at POC and the other one at 138.04, with a valley in between.

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Result is a red candle which ends at the top of Friaday's candle true corpse.

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On the 4H graph, the two last trading days are included in a falling wedge.
Bund Future contract is near the end of such structure : a big move is to come.

138.00 is a support and below 137.55/65, where MA 23 and 44 TU 4H are. In between there is MA 20D (137.82).
As far as resistances, above 138.47 (HoD) there is 139 and the 139.40 (MA 50D).

In the case Bund Future Contract exit the falling wedge by above, target is 138.46, which is to say today's HoD.
In the opposite case, target is 137.46, but I will consider 137.66 instead (big support there in my opinion).

Tomorrow evening, the FED will talk and the second half of the week shall be more volatile....

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