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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #511 (permalink)
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Market opened with a downard gap and, looking for Buyers, went to make its LoD (139.79. From there reactive Buyers brung the market back to 140.17. During night session market traded sideways and closed at 140.07.

POC is at 140.03, value is narrow and most of the trade volume is a couple of ticks below POC.
A new balanced level has been defined by the market, substancially lower than the one traded the four previous trading days. Volume is however much smaller than normal days (i.e. days where the US are not off).

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Result is a small red candle with a lower spike.

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I see a double top, with MA 44 at neckline level. As long as there is not a TU 4H closing above 140.20, target is 139.40.

Tomorrow, I will therefore have a bearish biais in my trading, as long as prices do remain below 140.20. I will monitor the opening level and whether it holds or not. Weakness of opening and difficulty to hold its level could be the signals that market will again look for Buyers....

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  #512 (permalink)
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PMA for September 4

LTF:
Balancing near LTF low, value above current price levels.

STF:
Normal variation day with range extension down with relatively wide rotations.
Market opened near yesterday’s value area high with responsive sellers acting immediately and sending market down where it found buyers who tested the morning high, extended the range up a bit but failed and found responsive sellers again. Buyers fought a bit but gave up and the market then created a weak low. Afterwards market went up again to close near today’s value low.
Today responsive sellers were more active, however since we are within the middle-term value area, mostly STF traders are active.
We will see if the market tests the lows tomorrow to find more LTF buyers but if the lower prices are rejected, the market should travel up towards value.

A few European reports tomorrow morning and US Trade Balance in the afternoon.

Successful trading.

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  #513 (permalink)
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Nice to see tou again Hadamkov.

All morning, market traded with no direction in a 139.80 - 140.25 range. Reactive Sellers were a shade above 140.20 and reactive Buyers were a shade above yesterday's LoD. Most of the time, prices were below the opening level which was an indication of market weakness.

Upon release of the US figure, at 4 pm, Sellers agressively push the market down from opening level to LoD
(139.55), finding some reactive Buyers at such level. Closing was at 139.85. The fall from 140.17 to 139.55 was very fast and with small volume.

Incidentally, I gave a 139.40 target for the day. Not too bad.

Surprinsingly POC is at an hefty 140.11, higher than yesterday (140.03), value is on the upper part of the range, while most of the volume is around POC, giving the day a "p" shape.

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Result is a red candle but with a rather long spike below the true corpse and a closing above the 139.85 support level.


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On the 4H graph, I see some sort of failling wedge, with however the double top target at 139.40 still valid.
The reverse Head & Shoulders, with target at 142.90 (if 141 is overcomed) is still possible as well.

139.55/60, last week LoW has proved to be still a support. Below there is 139.06, week before last LoW.
140.24 is a resistance. Above there is 140.65 (MA 20D) and the strong 141.

For tomorrow, ideally, market would first test whether there are some sellers at lowest prices and then would rise.
If market gently go downard with modest volume, I will look for a long position, as long as 139.55/60 is below quoted prices. I would be very much more cautious if market rises with no so much volume and would eventually in such case begun my trading day by a short position. Whether opening level will hold or not will be my main guidance.

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  #514 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
Nice to see tou again Hadamkov.

Thanks!
Really glad to be back again to regular schedule...
Two months of school summer hols as well as the start of the new school year here is a really demanding period of time for our family .

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  #515 (permalink)
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Double bottom at 139.55

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Double bottom made at 139.55. If market goes above the open level this afternoon, we may see a green rocket which target is 140.10

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  #516 (permalink)
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PMA for September 5

LTF:
Still balancing near LTF low, value above, falling wedge, narrowing rotations.

STF:
Market opened below yesterday’s value and started balancing for most morning part of the day, then extended the range down, formed DB and found competition from the buyers just like yesterday. Then the reactive buyers send the market back up, extended the range up and created a weakish high. Initiating sellers then dominated for the rest of the day. No competition on the high or low, no LTF buyers present yet. Close near low.

Nice neutral day and rotations getting narrower may mean an end to the balancing phase. LFT buyers were not active today and let the market rotate down. Initiating sellers were a bit more aggressive today. If LTF buyers fail to be active tomorrow again, market may travel south as there is still some room to LTF low. If they finally show up, the way is up.

Approaching expiry, bond auctions tomorrow plus major reports in the afternoon.

Successful trading.

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  #517 (permalink)
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Market opened at 139.85 ranged between 139.55 and 139.86 and 5.30 pm fixing was 139.74. During the night session, prices decreased and session ended at 139.55. Like yesterday, most of the time, prices were below opening level, a clear sign of market weakness.

Volume distribution is typical of a non directionnal day with most of the volume traded at 139.74, while POC is at 139.71. Such level is 40 ticks lower than yesterday. Value is very narrrow and very few volume was traded below 139.65 and above 139.85, as can be expected from reactive Buyers and Sellers.

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Result is a red candle with a spike abovee a small true corpse..


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On the 4H graph we can see the failed attempt to exit upward the failing wedge. The double top target (139.40) is still valid. In the case Bund Future contract exit from below the failing wedge, target is 138.40. Alternatively, in the case of an upward exit (the one which happens 90% of the cases), target would be 140.20 as a minimum and eventually a return to 141.

139.55 was tested again and did a good job as support but how long will Buyers be there ? Below there is 139.06 (week before last LoW) and nothing below to my knowledge.....
As far as resistances are concerned, 139.96 (HoD) is the first one, then 140.10 (MA 44) then 140.24, 140.50
(MA 20 Daily) and finally 141.

Tomorrow there are plenty of reasons for the market to exit the failing wedge, the least not being ECB press conference.

I will therefore be very cautious tomorrow morning and likely wait for Mario to give me a nice trend to work on.

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139.40, double top target, achieved this morning.

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  #519 (permalink)
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Market opened at 139.43 with a gap down, made the HoD at 139.48 and regularly dropped with small volume to reach a low at 138.75. after ECB press conference, prices rocketed to 139.25 and fall to 138.52 LoD was at 138.48 and fixing at 138.52. Night session did not see much change to the fixing level.

POC is at a low 138.50 but the biggest volume node by far is at 139.37, giving the day a "p"shape. Volume of the day is very low. I had a look at December contract and discovered that volume of the day is huge and that the ditribution of volume is almost with no node : it seems that operators already switched to december and I will do same from now on.

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Result is almost a loop belt big red candle.

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On the 4H graph we can see that Future contracts exit the falling wedge by below, giving us the 138.25 target.
The market rise after ECB press conference was actually a pullback on the falling wedge support oblique.
when I look at the graph, I do not see why the future contracts would not go to find some support on the supporting oblique, some 100 ticks below today's closing.

As support there is LoD (138.48) and then the support oblique of the big downard channel, in the 137.60/70 area.
Resistancs levels are plenty : HoD (138.48), 139.06, 139.30 and 139.95.

December prices are about 200 ticks below September so I will make the conversion accordingly.

Tomorrow, I do not know whether this strong downard move will continue of if we will see a pause.
Target of the falling wedge (138.25) has not been achieved yet and I do not think that a downard move of this kind could end with a big red candle in loop belt.

As often, capability of the opening level to hold will be my main guidance.

On the afternoon, US employment data will be released and could bring further volatility.

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  #520 (permalink)
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Market opened at 136.42, which was to be LoD, a shade below Thursday's closing level, rose to 137.10 came back to cash opening level just prior the release of US employment data.
The forecasted volatility then appeared with prices rocketing to 137.81 which was to be HoD. Fixing was at 137.68 and night session closed 15 ticks lower.

POC is at an hefty 137.60, to be compared to 136.55 on Thursday, value is extended, from 136.88 to 137.80 and volume is distributed in two halves, with a range of 20 ticks, from 137.08 to 137.28 with almost no volume.

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Result is a big green candle which swallows the previous big red candle. Cumulated volume of September and December on both days shows that there is four times more volume associated to the green candle than to the red one.

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On the 4 H graph, we can see that market rise stopped just below MM 44 which is near by the resistance oblique of the big downard channel



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The above graph is based on 2 days Time Unit where we cans see a neat bottom doji hammer created by the two last trading days. It seems that Thursday was a final sell-off with very strong reactive Buyers acting on Friday.



Weeky candle is a red hammer and Pivot Point for next week is at 137.54, almost where night session ended.

136.42 is obviously a strong support and above the 20 ticks range where almost no volume was exchanged on Friday (137.08-137.28)
Friday's HoD (137.82) is a first resistance and then 137.94 (MA 44) and the resistance oblique of the downard channel.


For Monday, there could be an opening gap or not.

If there is none and the market rises with modest volume, I will look for a short position to begin with, as long as prices remain below 137.94-138. If it drops with modest volume, I will look for a long position above the 137.08 - 137.28 range. If there is much volume associated to a move, I will try to jump in the first available coach.

If there is an opening gap, I will carefully assess the situation created by such gap before opening a position.

Have a nice week-end.

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