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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #501 (permalink)
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Session openend with a gap down with the previous night session which was filled first thing in the morning, making the HoD. Reactive Sellers pushed then the market down to the opening level and then further down to LoD at 139.46. Market then drifted horizontally to end at opening level. A lower value has been accepted by the market.

Value is rather centered and POC is at 139.74 : the opening and closing level.

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As can be seen on the graph, result is a very neat doji with long legs, sign of uncertainty. Such candle could be the end of the downard move or a pause before further move south.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contract is in a wide downard channel and in such big channel, there is a narrower one.

As prices are near the supporting oblique of such smaller channel, I would not be surprised to see a move up tomorrow within 139.40 -140.40 boundaries.

Support is today's LoD, resistances are HoD, then 140.15, 140.40 and our friend 140.70/80.

I will sell below today's LoD, buy above today's HoD and scalp in between.

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  #502 (permalink)
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Market opened roughly at Thursday's closing level and immediately dropped, reaching LoD (139.06) early afternoon, making the failing wedge 139.20 target .
Reactive Buyers sent then the market to 139.36. Sellers sent the market back to LoD, making a double bottom.
After the US figure was released, market rose dramatically and closed at 139.60.

Value is at 139.24 - 139.72 while POC is at 139.52. Two volume nodes, one at 139.30 and the other nearby POC.

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Result is a hammer.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that the market found support on the support oblique of the big downard channel. The green candle is almost engulfing the red one.

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Weekly candle has a small true corpse and two long spikes. Placed after a big red candle and on a support level, it could very well be the second element of a rising star, to be confirmed by a green candle next week. It could also be a continuation figure. In such case the downard move will continue and the target would be 137.40 for the end of next week.
Value is from 139.52 to 140.40 while POC is at 140.34. Friday closing was within the value.

Next week PP is 139.80. Going above would give R1 (141) as target. Incidentally, the resistance oblique of the big downard channel lies in such area. It is therefore a logical target as the market made a rebound on the supporting oblique of such channel.

139.06 is obviously a support and 139.30/40 a minor one. There are plenty of resistances on the way up : 139.80/140.00, 140.40 and 140.70/80.

An ideal scenario would be Monday a test with modest volume of the minor support and then a rise with volume.
I would then look for a swing long position. I would be very cautious if the market rises with modest volume without testing a low level. I would then look for a short position. An upward gap with an opening level holding will command a strong buy. Market going below 139.06 would trigger a short swing position.

The Jakson Hole thing this week end may give some orientation to the market ealry next week.

Have a nice week-end.


Last edited by MARS; August 24th, 2013 at 01:49 AM.
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  #503 (permalink)
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Market begun having technical problems and rosd to 139.84 then tested an area a shade below the opening leve, making its LoD (139.60).
In the afternoon, the release of a bad US figure at 2.30 pm made price rocketing and market made its HoD (140.15). Fixing and end of night sessison where about the same level (140.01).

POC is at 139.97 while value goes from 139.70 to 140. Most of the volume was done at 140.05 which gives the day a "p" shape. It seemed that Buyers were taking the control of the market but the volume of the session is about 3 times smaller than the previous days. Why so small ?

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Nevertheless, result of the day is near to be a green loop belt which engulfs the two previous candles

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On the 4H graph, I traced a downard channel and prices are near its resistance.

On the support side, above 139.05 (last week LoW) we have 139.40 and LoD (139.60).
On the reisstance side 140.05/15 then 139.40 (where MA 44 lies) and finally 140.70/80.

It is worht noting that closing happened above Weeky PP (139.80). It is to be seen whether the market will hold above such value tomorrow.

I am not convinced by this rise for it lacks of volume. As long as HoW will not be overcomed and prices are below the thick red oblique, I will be very cautious to take the upmoves.

Tomorrow, IFO shall give a direction to the market. Except scalping no much for the swingueurs. I will probably wait IFO release to act.

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  #504 (permalink)
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Bund 8/26

Hey MARS. I read most of your daily posts on the Bund and they are very much appreciated Just wanted to inform you that part of the reason for the unusually low volume was the bank holiday in the UK today.

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  #505 (permalink)
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Market opened at the upper end of yesterday's range, tested whether some Sellers would be somewhere lower, made its LoD (140.00) and then rose all the way to end, during the night session, at its HoD (140.94), almost making the R1 target given August 24th.

POC is at a suprinsgly low 140.37 and there are two volume nodes, one at POC and the other one, bigger, at 140.60. Volume is in line with the other days

Actually, the night session begun at such level and there are only two TPO's from 140.55 to 140.95. Volume was also very thin. I therefore see such rise as a panic short covering in a market with no sellers......

If market opens tomorrow a shade below 141, I would not be surprised if the abovementionned range (140.55 -140.95) is visited during the day session.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a very neat green and impressive loop belt. Worth remenbering that last week high was 140.71 and that 140.90 about was August 14th and 15th HoD.

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On the 4H graph, I do see prices toping against the resistance oblique of the downard channel. Fast stochastics do show an overbought market.

Above the 141 level, as far as resistances are concerned, we will have MA 20 daily (about 141.19 tomorrow) and upper the 141.80, former support.
On the support side, 140.70 could be a fisrt support, then 140.55/60 (the upper volume node) and below 140.30/35 level (the second volume node).

For tomorrow if market opens around 140.90 and I see the market rising with modest volume, I will look for a short in order to play some retracement of today's and yesterday's rise. 140.50, 23.6% retracement of the rise between 139.06 and 140.93 is a nice candidate. If it biguns to drop from 140.90 I will try to follow the move.

In case of an opening gap, situation will have to be analysed taking into account the gap itself.

Have a nice evening.

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  #506 (permalink)
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Market opened a shade below yesterday's night session closing, briefly jumped to 140.89, making its HoD and then closed the upward gap with the 5.30 pm fixing. From there it went up again and made a double top. Such event liberate reactive Sellers and market dropped to its LoD (140.12), during the night session. Reactive Buyers brung prices back at 140.30 for closing.

POC is much higher than yesterday (140.78 vs 140.37) and most of the traded volume is around POC, with however a second node, much smaller, at 140.25.

I therefore think that Buyers are still in control of the market.

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Candle of the day forms an harami with the previous one : market rise move is stopped but not yet in jeopardy.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contracts actually rebounded against the resistance oblique of the downard channel. It is worth noticing that market ends above MA 44 and 23, both being on support.

As long as these two MA are below prices, I will give a bullish biais to my day trading.

Incidentally, 140.22 (about the low of the day) is 38.2 retracement of the rise from 139.06 to 140.89. If we make the assumption that we are on a 5 waves pattern, market may rise during the third wave to at least 141.89, precisely MA 50 level and not too far from ICHIMOKU cloud lower hedge (142.10). Too nice to be true ? Only time will tell.

140.90 was a resistance today but as the resistance oblique is decreasing, the resistance might be a shade lower tomorrow. Below such resistance we will have 140.50 and above 141.06 and then nothing before 141.80.

On the support side, below 140.14/20 there is 139.80.

We may very well see the market exploring the valley between the two nodes (between 140.30 and 140.77) during the morning before, eventually taking a direction.

Tomorrow, if the market gently drops with small volume, I will look for a long position. If there is some volume on such eventual drop, I will wait and see. In the case the market beguns by rising, I will be rather cautious and wait as well, unless such move is made with volume. In such case I will try to jump in the train.

Have a nice evening.


Last edited by MARS; August 28th, 2013 at 05:58 PM.
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  #507 (permalink)
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After the open, market tested the low side and found reactive Buyers at 140.06, which was LoD. Market then look for reactive Sellers and found some at 140.68. It then went down again at 140.17 and up to make its HoD at 140.72. Fixing was at 140.60. During the night session 140.83 was the top price paid. Market ended at 140.68.

POC is at 140.38, much lower than yesterday and volume is rather balanced all over the value which is rather extended, typical of a non directionnal day.

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Result is an inside candle, following an inside candle. It reminds me the Russian Dolls.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund Future contract found support on the MA 44 and that the resistance oblique made a good job.

I have the feeling that the market is storing energy to break the resistance oblique, with 141.90 as the target.

Tomorrow the resistance oblique will be in the 140.60/70 area, precisely where the market ended this evening.
Above there is the 140.89 level (HoW for the time being), MA 20 daily at 140.98 and then nothing much before 141.90.

On the support side we will have a strong support in the 140.15/20 area (MA 44 and 23 TU 4H) and nothing much above as prices in the 140.15 - 70 range were heavily traded these past three days.

If market goes and stays below 140.06/16, 139.50 could be a minor support and below 139.06, LoW of last week.

If markets opens with a gap up tomorrow morning, it is the resistance oblique itself that would have been gapped and in this case such gap may not be filled before soon. I would then try to jump in the first available coach for it will be a directional upward day.

If market opens near its closing, I would be more confortable if the market beguns to look whether there are Sellers at lower prices rather than seeing a gentle rise with not much volume. In this last case, I will look for a short.

Main reason is that to break a resistance oblique lasting since july 23rd you need either substancial volume or a gap.

Have a nice evening.

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  #508 (permalink)
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REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS

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As I say, BOBL sometimes shows clearer figures than BUND.

Here, for instance, on this 4H graph, I see a reverse Head & Shoulders. Neck line is at 125.20 and target is a hefty 126.10.

Equivalent for BUND is a neckline at 141 and a target at 142.90

In both cases, these targets would meet upper daily bollinger bands.

As reverse Head & Shoulders have a 98% chance to exit upward with the given targets being achieved with 83% chances (figures extracted from F. BARON's book, "Le Chartisme", my strategy for a long swing, will be very simple : I will buy Bund and Bobl above the neckline with a stop at shoulders level (140.06 for Bund and 124.80 for BOBL, such levels being MA 23 TU 4H) and wait for the best, including over the week end.

Good night.

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WEEKLY ANALYSIS

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On the 1 week graph, we can see a rising star. POC is at 140.57, much higher than last week (139.54) while value is extended from 140.22 to 140.88. There are two volume nodes, one around POC and the other one smaller and lower, at 140.33.

Buyers took control of the market. There is however a spike on the high side of the candle. 141 resistance must be overcome for the rise to continue next week.

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Daily Analysis


Market opened near previous day closing and after finding support at 140.58, tried to break the horizontal resistance of the reverse Head & Shoulders (141). HoD (140.94) was made during such attempt which was a failure. Incidentally, MA 20D (140.88) was on the way.

Reactive Sellers then took the lead and sent down the market to its LoD (140.43). Fixing was at 140.62.
During the night session market traded erratically but ended at a low 140.40

POC is at 140.60 and value at 140.50-78, within the same boundaries as the three previous days.

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Result is a shooting star which true corpse is included in the previous candle. The Russian Dolls game continues.


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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 crossed above MA 44 (the Golden Cross) and that if the reverse Head & Shoulders is still in place, the 141 neckline holds.

Weekly PP is at 140.40, precisely the level where night session ended.

141 is obvously a major resistance but above there is nothing much before MA 50D at 141.86 and the 141.80/90 former support. It is worth noting that on a 30 days volume profile, there are two big volume nodes, one in the 140.20/60 area (where we are now) and the other one in the 142.00/142/40 area with a valley in between.
Therefore, if 141 horizontal resistance is overcomed, the rise to 141.80/90 could be really fast.

On the support side, there is the 140.20/30 area, where MA 23 and 44 are, then 139.50 and finally 139.06.

I am forecasting a new market attempt to go over the 141 resistance. It it succeeds, as reverse Head & Shoulders statistics advocate but also last week POC if compared to the previous one, 141.90 shall be reached pretty fast while target is 142.90.

If such attempt fails again or just does not happen, Sellers will push the market down looking for Buyers....

Monday the US are closed so the European are on their own.
On the morning, I will adopt the same strategy as the one described in a previous post : I will buy the market above 141 (i.e. in the case of an upward gap for instance), buy if market beguns to drop gently and find some support, but I will be very cautious is prices go below weekly PP (140.40), sell if I see a new rejection on the 140.90/141 level, sell if I see the market gently rising with scarce volume.

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On this 30' graph, I traced the weekly PP (in thick blue). The August 30th session appears in a falling wedge which target, if exit is upward, is 140.90 (thus the new attempt forecast). Keep in mind however than downard exit target is 140.10.


Have a nice week-end.

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