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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #491 (permalink)
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Tomorrow is a holy day in many European countries, therefore I will take a day off and will post an analysis Thursday evening.

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  #492 (permalink)
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Another whaou day that I stupidly missed.

Wednesday candle, almost a doji with long legs, could be of bottom or of continuation. it proved to be of continuation

Thursday, market opened at wednesday closing level and drifter horizontally untill 11.30 when Sellers took the lead and violently pushed the market down to June 24th LoD (139.88). Today LoD was actually 139.83.
From such level, reactive Buyers entered into the market and made a closing at 140.25.

Candle of the day is a big red one with as much volume as Tuesday. POC is at 140.22 and value is rather extended, with two nodes, one at 140.03 and the other one at 140.48.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, market did a double bottom at 139.83. Such level is obviously a support. It is to be seen whether it will hold. On the resistance side, 140.50 is a first one, then 141.

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On the 4H graph, I traced a paralell to the resistance oblique which gives a downard channel.

As Bund future contract is on such oblique, which still needs to prove it is a support, I would expect a modest rebound for tomorrow and the 140.03 - 140.50 area to be explored.

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  #493 (permalink)
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For what it's worth


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On this 4 hour grah, I traced the failing wedge target : 139.40.

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On this 30' graph, I can trace, since Thursday LoD, a rising wedge which could be of continuation (to the downard move). Target is here 139.20.

Todays session sees the market rising gently. If prices go below the opening level, I will sell to go at least to yesterday LoD and probably much lower.

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  #494 (permalink)
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Candle of the week is a downard loop belt with reasonable volume. Value is extended from 139.94 to 141.45 with two nodes, one around 140.20, close to Friday's and Thursday's POC's and one at 140.85, near the weekly POC at 140.84 and Wednesday POC at about the same value. Weekly PP is at 140.79. Market already closed at S1 level.

From the above, it appears that the 140.80 area is an important one and that if LoW holds, the market may explore the area between the two weekly nodes during the first half of the week to come.

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Friday the market opened near Thursday's closing and was directionless. HoD (140.38) was reached before noon then market came back to the opening level. During the night session, likely due to T Bond weakness, the market suddenly dropped to 139.72 where reactive Buyers made the market close at 139.96.Volume of such move was very thin. POC (140.24) was about the same as Thursday while value is on the high part of the range, giving the day a "p" shape. As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a red candle with two rather long spikes, definitely not the signal that the downard move is over.

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For Monday I am expecting the market to test whether there are still buyers in the 139.70-85 area before, eventually rising. In the case market opens and drops with reasonable volume, I would cautiously look for a long position with a stop at 139.70 about. I would sell in the case the support area is broken to target S2 (139.20) which is also the failing wedge target . Would the market begin rising with modest volume, I will look for a short, playing the market testing again the support area.

As far as resistances are concerned, friday's HoD is a first one, then 140.50/55 area, where will be the former support oblique of the failing wedge then 140.80 area, a major resistance. Above such level, I would, on the short term, be reasonnable bullish for prices would be above weekly PP and the second weekly node.

Voili Voila.

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  #495 (permalink)
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PMA for August 19

LTF:
Imbalanced down in a grinding overall up channel, confident, getting nearer unfair low

STF:
Market opened within Thursday’s value and advertized for sellers for more than two hours, after a failure to extend the range down responsive buyers extended the IB, found competition and initiating sellers formed an extreme. The market then tested the IB low and high, the extreme held and then the market dropped down very late to explore the extreme from Wednesday but did not find any response from buyers until very late – maybe just for profit taking. All in all, market is still skewed to the downside, still looking for LTF buyers and for new value.

During the day, short-term trader was in charge and created a neutral situation that later developed into a normal variation day with LTF sellers coming in. I expect a revisit of this thin volume area and travel down until we find a new balance (which of course can be tomorrow).

No reports on Monday.

Successful trading.

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  #496 (permalink)
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market opened at 143.71, which was the LoD, then rose to HoD at 140.24 and ranged the remaining time within these two values, ending at 139.96. POC is at 139.91. Value is from 139.81 and 140.09.

Result is a green candle which could, with pink glasses, be seen as a reversed hammer.

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On the 30' graph, below, I do see that today, Bund Future contract made a symetrical triangle, a figure of uncertainty, witth a tentative downard exit during the night session.

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I am expecting tomorrow to be like today : a non directionnal day.

139.70 is clearly a support, 140.24 a resistance and above as per our last post ( 140.38, 140.50/55, 140.80).

Same trading ideas as per today : I would cautiously buy if market begins to drop with little volume, I will sell if 13.70 support is broken with heavy volume and I will try to enter short if the market begins to rise with little conviction.

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PMA for August 20

LFT:
Pausing in a downtrend, near LTF low, still rather certain, value above. Current low seems a bit weak.

STF:
A balanced day with still relatively wide rotations.
Market opened above yesterday’s low, initiating sellers tested yesterday’s low twice only to be sharply overcome by responsive sellers (OTD type of open). Competing initiating buyers appeared only at the yesterday’s VPOC which acted like a magnet. Than the parameters hold and the market traded within the high and low and closed near its VPOC. Today responsive buyers were slightly more active and aggressive, however most of the time the only STF trader was in control today. Market has wide rotations so there is not yet much certainty to start some movement in any direction, however given the near LTF low I would expect some more rotations. We will see if we found new value to balance about or if we are going to reject this area and go back up.

Only German PPI at the market opening.

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  #498 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap and rose to 140.46, it then made a consolidation flag and around 3.30 pm rose again to the HoD at 140.68. POC is at 140.34 and value rather extended, from 140.24 to 140.54.


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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a green loop belt.

I had the feeling that the market was rising reluctantly.

I believe that tomorrow, the 140.70/80 level will be tested and I would be very suprised if such resistance is overcomed on the first attempt.

Above such level we will have the 141.10 and MM 44 UT 4H, at about 141.28.

On the support side 140.29 and then 139.70.

FOMC report at 8 pm could reshuffle the cards for the second part of the week.

After the opening, if market rises to 139.70/80 I will look for a short to play a reaction on such resistance. If market opens with a gentle downward move, I will look for a long position and wait for the test of the 140.70/80 area.

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  #499 (permalink)
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On 4h graph, I see a rising wedge which could be of continuation (of the downtrend).

Target to be at least last week low (139.70).

Today, the opening downard gap was closed and market is presently below the opening level.

I will sell below today's low (140.32 for the time being) with a stop at opening level (140.47) to play the downard exti of the rising wedge.

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  #500 (permalink)
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Market opened with a downard gap and filled such gap first thing in the morning, making its HoD ((140.71), from there reactive Sellers sent the market back to the open level. When such level was not able to hold, it was clear that south was the direction the market wanted to go. 140.20 was the fixing at 5.30 pm with LoD at 140.04.

During the night session, at the FOMC report release, Sellers pushed the market down again and made it closing at its low (139.96).

POC is at 140.40 with a volume node at POC and another one, smaller, at 140.15.

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Result is a bearish loop belt wich engulfes the previous candle.

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On the 4H graph, if we do consider the rising wedge as a consolidation structure, then target is as shade more than 138.

Support is obviously last week low (139.70). First resistance shall be at 140.15, then 140.40 and the major one at 140.70/80 which made prices be rejected this morning.

As I have reasons to believe that the downard trend resumed this afternoon, I will have a bearish biais in my day trading. Therefore, if market rises tomorrow morning with modest volume, I will look for a short position. If the 139.70 is tested beforehand, I will cautiously observe market reaction before either buying on such support level or selling if it does not hold.

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