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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #481 (permalink)
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From the open level market rose gently and at 142.55, which was to be HoD, reactive Sellers strongly pushed the market down right to LoD (141.83), three ticks higher than Tuesday LoD. Market then rose again to end at 142.40, last week POC.

POC is at 142.35 but most of the volume traded was at 142.11. Not much to be said regarding value.

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On the 4H graph, we can see how important is the 142.50/60 area : the resistance oblique lies there, MA 23 and 44 are there as well.

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On the 1 day graph, we can see that today's market move made the shikou span staying above the candle line.

Between yesterday and today, the Bund Future contrat made a double bottom at 141.85 which seems to be a strong support. Below there is 141.68.
142.55 is the resistance to be overcome. In such case, first target of the failing wedge visible in the 4H graph is 142.95 and second target is 143.29 (last week HoW).

I do keep in mind that failling wedges exit upward 92% of the time. I will therefore have a bullish biais in my trading tomorrow.

If market goes down tomorrow morning in a moderate volume, I will look for a long position. If market goes upward with big volume, I will follow. I will be very cautious if market rises above 142.50 with moderate volume. I will sell if there is another refusal in the 142.50/60 area and below 141.83.

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  #482 (permalink)
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PMA for August 8

LTF:
Balanced market, uncertain, summer volume.

STF:
Volume is getting more and more insignificant, today seems like a stop-loss run.
Market opened near yesterday’s POC and headed north, initial parameters established after first 90 minutes when the market found opposite reaction. Then a fast extension happened creating an extreme and a day high followed by a fast stop run creating an extreme and a day low. The market then rose steadily till its close and closed in the value.

I can see another failed range extension up, with dominating aggressive, yet not very numerous sellers. The market seems to want to go higher, however is unable to find buyers above current mid-time value and that is probably the problem. Until the LTF buyer comes back and starts to buy enough to lift the market, we may remain stuck around the current value or underneath it or even go down if the seller remains aggressive. And that is the question for tomorrow. The expected behavior is north.

Report at 2.30 CET US Unemployment claims

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  #483 (permalink)
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About the same scenario as yesterday. Market opened high, rose with small volume to reach MM 20 daily (142.72), which was to be HoD where reactive Sellers pushed the market down to 142.02, which was to be LoD. Market then tried to climb agin but failed and closed near its low, at 142.14

Value is concentrated in the lower part of the range, and POC, at 142.20, shows how heavy is the market.

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On the 1 day graph, we clearly see that the far end of the spike is on MM 20 and that the lower hedge of the ICHIMOKU cloud was a support.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that the resisting oblique of the failing wedge did a good job and that the 142 level holds for the time being.

Tomorrow, there is no important data to be released and I am expecting a non directionnal day. MM 20 daily is there as a resistance (about 142.68 tomorrow and before that the 142.40 level. On the support side, the 141.83/86 area and below 141.68.

Today and yesterday the market tried unsucesfully to rise. Will it try to drop (unsucessfully ?) tomorrow ?

Have a nice evening.

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PMA for August 9

LTF:
Balance, uncertain, summer volume

STF:
Market opened just above yesterday’s VA high and auctioned up till 10 AM when it found sellers who sent the market down to form a weak low. Than the market distributed around the very similar prices as yesterday and closed near the low.

I can see STF buyers active at the beginning of the day again but no LTF buyers interested to compete higher and create an extreme. Responsive Sellers sent the market downwards and initiating sellers extended the range down below yesterday’s VA. Today, there is no extreme on the low which might mean that we did not travel south enough. The market is a bit imbalanced lower so the expected behavior would be to go down tomorrow in order to try to find the buyers again.

Just minor reports tomorrow, should not really affect the market

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  #485 (permalink)
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Market dead.

Off I go for the week end.

I will post an analysis before Monday.

Have a nice one.

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In small volumes, last week candle is a hammer, which follows another hammer the week before. POC of the week is 142.19, to be compared to 142.40 the week before and value is a shade lower and more compact.

The market is balanced with several trials to go higher which all failed but how long the reacitve Sellers will be here ? I see these two hammers, together with the failing wedge visible in UT 4H, as the preparation for a potential strong move up the coming week.

Weekly PP is at 142.40. If the market closes monday above such level, R1, which is at 142.96, being also last week HoW, is a reasonnable target, while target of the failing wedge, if the resistance oblique is overcomed, is 143.24, the week before last HoW.

Friday, the marked opened near 142.08 ranged all morning in about 15 ticks and at about 11.30 am rocketed 30 ticks in half an hour with no particular reason. I was gone by that time and therefore missed this move. Market closed near its HoD (142.53).
POC is at 142.45 and unlike Thursday, value and volume are in the high part of the range.

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On the 1 day graph we can see a bullish engulfing but as the volume was lower than the engulfed day, the meaning of such engulfing is to be questionned. Shikou span is struggling not to go below the candle line, prices are still in the ICHIMOKU cloud.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that last candle is touching the oblique. If Monday opens with an upward gap, we may very well see a directionnal day upwards, with MA 23 and 44 in support and 143.20 as the target.
Alternatively, a failure to overcome the resisting oblique may send the market down in direction of the support oblique.

While the 142.55/66 area is an obvious resistance, on the support side there is 142.26 then 142 area and much stronger the 141.83/86 area and below the lower end of weekly hammer spike at 141.64.

As volumes are scarce, some players with not so much capital could try to play the "stop triggering game", making a phony exit upwards. Therefore, if market exit upward Monday it could be safer to wait for the throwback before taking a short term long position, with the risk to miss the move. Whether there is follow through or not will be of essence for an eventual upward move lasting several days.

There are no figures tomorrow so would the Bund Future contract not being near the oblique, I would expect the market to drift horizontally. Watch out for the unexpected.

Have a nice Sunday.


Last edited by MARS; August 10th, 2013 at 06:17 PM. Reason: clerical error
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PMA for August 12

LTF:
Balanced within downtrend, uncertain, value moving a bit higher, rotations getting narrower.

SFT:
Market opened on the lower edge of yesterday’s value area and tested lower where it immediately found buyers, extreme and low was established. Sellers tried to send the market down, however some initiating buyer run the stops and lifted the market above the initial balance and extended the range up. The high was then tested several times, market was send halfway back down, however did not reach the morning balanced area and went up again. Tested high again, however with such a low Friday value it was unable to find any competitive buyers to form an extreme.

Value area is in the upper part of the day range, close near high. Market is thus skewed up; however it is near previously rejected prices. The expected behavior is up a bit and then back to value, if there are no initiating buyers.
No significant reports tomorrow.

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PMA for August 13

LTF:
Balanced, rotations getting narrower.

STF:
Market opened below yesterday’s POC, created the day’s high and went down immediately to create the day’s low. Nothing has changed really, we keep on bouncing off the LTF value area low. We found reactive sellers on the low and after some balancing went back to test the high. There are failed auctions on both ends, both LTF buyers and sellers are still not present. Market closed at VPOC. Sellers were fast today, however did not last long. We will see if some LTF players show up tomorrow. We are near the LTF value area low and were not able to overcome the LTF VPOC. If no LTF players how up, we continue to balance.

Tomorrow a few reports so watch out.

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Another day within the same 141.80 - 142.60 range.

Market begun to drop from the opening (142.34) to loD (141.91) then rose to HoD(142.43) to end at 142.07.
Value is in the lower part of such range and POC at 142.07.

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On the 1 day graph, we can see the congestion with alternate red and green candles in the same price range, which gives sometimes values and POC in the lower part of the range (like today) and sometimes values and POC in the higher part of the range, like Friday.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 is doing a great job as resistance but how long the Sellers will hold the fort ? Or will Buyers get tired trying ?
On such UT, a closing above such MA would be a clear buying signal. On the support side, below the
141.83 - 90 area there is 141.66 and then the support oblique, somewhere around 141.

Did you noticed that stocks and bunds are moving in the same direction ?
It seems that market only cares about how long the Fed will provide cheap money.

Tomorrow, the ZEW and US retail sales may bring some volatility.

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  #490 (permalink)
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"Tomorrow, ZEW (...) may bring some volatiliy"


What a day !

Market opened with a gap down and ranged between the opening (141.91) and week before last LoW (141.68). HoD (141.93) was then reached

When the 141.68 support was overcomed, at ZEW release, it was clear that the Bund Future contract was taking us for a wilde ride southwards.

Sellers heaviliy pushed the market down to 141.20 with very few volume exchanged between 141.68 and 141.41, something to remember if we come back to such price levels.

Fromm 141.20, reactive Buyers pushed the market up to 141.40 and from there the market regularly dropped in heavy volume to reach LoD at 140.60, during the night session, where reactive Buyers made the market to close at 141.82.

POC is a 141.25 and value is on the lower part of the range, from 141.45 to the closing price, giving the day a "b" shape. Range of the day is a hefty 133 ticks !

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Result of the day is a big red candle, almost a belt loop. Lower bollinger is reached, shikou span goes below the candle line.

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On the 4h graph, we can see that prices went a shade below the supporting oblique of the failing wedge, ending with a hammer.

For wednesday, there is an 10 years auction and some of the big players could very well be short in order to go at the auction hedged at higher levels than those of the auctionned paper. If the result of such auction is not too bad, we could see some short coverage and therefore a consolidation of Tuesday's big drop. If market closes Wednesday above the supporting oblique, the failing wedge may still be valid.

On the support side, below LoD (140.60) we have the June 26th low at 139.96.
Plenty of resistance levels : 140.90, 141.20, 141.41, a rather big one and then 141.68

I will be very cautious in my trading before the results of the auction are released, usually some minutes after 11 am.


Last edited by MARS; August 13th, 2013 at 11:02 PM. Reason: clerical errors
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