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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #451 (permalink)
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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.24 Low:142.60 High:143.69 Close:142.72

The Bund was firmly lower on the day. After washing up from the open, the market broke down late in the afternoon, taking out the 142.93 lows from the start of the month. A close below here should keep it under-pressure. Any failure back around the 142.93-143.20 should allow for a bearish stance to remain intact. The market’s next objective could be around the 1.7% yield level. A move through yesterday’s highs could now be the signal that yesterday's action was a capitulation low for the market.

Support
142.92-13 **
142.82 ***
142.22-27 **
141.88 **
141.28 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **
144.44 **

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  #452 (permalink)
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Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective German Bunds have remained soft in their outlook. Since the rollover of the contract, the market has seen range bound trade. The market has remained below the 144.44 level, and it should remain under-pressure below here. The highs made on Friday, around the 144.00 handle should also remain firm resistance. The market had range support between the 142.93-143.10 area which eventually gave in yesterday afternoon. Sustained pressure below here should allow for a greater deterioration. If the market can recover and hold above here it is likely to put shorts under-pressure. Thus a move back through the 144.19-44 area may result in a sharp short-squeeze that could potentially signal that the market has bottomed for the moment. A move through this range support with a close below could then signal that the market has found its trigger point for a move towards the 1.7% yield area. The 1.7-1.8% area is a key medium term pivot and a move through here should force medium term participants into the market. Until then we may continue to see choppy trade without a clear break in direction.

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  #453 (permalink)
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Market opened at 142.70, gently rose to 142.80, dramatically dropped to 142,02 making there its LoD and then dramatically rose to end at HoD (142.87), making a V bottom.

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Result is a very neat hammer with POC at 142.62, very near from yesterday's value (142.68).
Value is 142.36/80 and below there is a buying tail : reactive Buyers rejected prices quoted below the Value.
It can be seen as a sell-off, that could very well be a Seller's capitulation, paving the way for a market recovery.
Would Wednesday candle be a green one, we would have a nice morning star.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that Bund contract tried to exit the downard channel by below and came back within such channel.

I am expecting the market to confirm the hammer tomorrow with 142 as an obvious support, the supporting oblique of the downard channel (around 142.50 tomorrow) as another support and the 143.00/10 area a first resistance. Above we will have the resistance oblique of the downard channel (around 143.80 tomorrow) and MA 44 (143.50) in between.

Whether the opening level holds or not will guide my trading tomorrow morning and I am prepared to a directionnal day upwards.

Gutte Nacht.

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  #454 (permalink)
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Market opened at 142.65 with a gap down, dropped to 142.48, making there its LoD then rose to 142.93, almost making its HoD, then went down at 142.51, 3 tics above the LoD, then up again to make its HoD (142.95) to end at opening level.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, result is a small doji which shows the balance between Sellers and Buyers.

POC at 142.74 is slightly higher than yesterday and value is higher than yesterday as well : the Sellers are not anymore in control of the market.

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UT 4H graph has not much to show, except that Bund is back in the downard channel.

For tomorrow, I will tentatively buy over today's HoD, sell below today's LoD and scalp in between.

Gutte Nacht

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  #455 (permalink)
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Market opened with a gap up at 142.96, Buyers sent the market to 143.33 and then the market drifted sideways in a range 142.89 - 143.37 to end at 143.39 in the last half hour of the night session with almost no volume.

POC is at 143.15 and value is rather narrow from 143.09 to 143.25.

I have the feeling that the last upward move is due to short covering and that POC actually reflects price of the day.

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Result of the day is a green candle with modest volume. It will be interesting to see tomorrow whether there is follow through or not (i.e. whether today's move is only short covering or something more solid)

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On the 4H graph, we can see that the gap was over the 143 level and that market ended rougly at MA 44 level.

For tomorrow, 143 area is an obvious support level while the oblique of the downard channel (about 143.90 tomorrow) is an obvious resistance. MA 20 daily is also at 143.85. Therfore the 143.85/90 area could be a good level to place a short if the market goes up there.

The week is not over but if market does not change much tomorrow, candle for the week will be a very neat hammer.

Gutte Nacht.

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  #456 (permalink)
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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.00 Low:142.91 High:143.44 Close:143.39

The Bund was higher on the day. The market took back the 142.87-95 area and settled the day above here, trading a range. The market shrugged off the strength in equities which potentially shows further upside is likely. If the market can hold above the 142.87-95 area we could see a steady recovery to the 143.69-78 area. Otherwise a break down to below yesterday’s lows and a close below could put the market back under-pressure.

Support
142.91 **
142.46 **
142.02-22 **
141.88 **
141.28 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **
144.44 **

Good luck guys and have nice weekend..

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First contact in the 143.80-85 area (81) and immediate reaction (143.70). Reactive Sellers are here.

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  #458 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
First contact in the 143.80-85 area (81) and immediate reaction (143.70). Reactive Sellers are here.

I'm still waiting for 143.87 with tight stop

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  #459 (permalink)
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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.46 Low:143.38 High:143.94 Close:143.73

The Bund was higher on the day. The market broke through Thursday’s highs to trade to around the 144.00 handle. The market is now running into firm resistance around the 144.10-19 area and then the key 144.44 level. A close through here may be the signal that the market is set to extend its run higher. If it is set to fail and sell-off again, this area must hold.


Support

142.91 **
142.46 **
142.02-22 **
141.88 **
141.28 **


Resistance

147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **

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  #460 (permalink)
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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.62 Low:143.48 High:143.99 Close:143.64


The Bund was higher flat on the day, failing around the 144.00 handle. The market is now running into firm resistance around the 144.10-19 area and then the key 144.44 level. A close through here may be the signal that the market is set to extend its run higher. If it is set to fail and sell-off again, this area must hold.

Support
142.91 **
142.46 **
142.02-22 **
141.88 **
141.28 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **
144.44 **

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