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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #421 (permalink)
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A couple of things to add to FGBL07 report.

It is worth noting that 8.30 am level (143.81) was also HoD. It has been tested once within the day but was never challenged

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The one day graph shows another small green candle with not much volume (if compared to the red one of Tuesday). Smell of consolidation move to me.


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On the 4H graph, I see a flag of consolidation of the downard trend.
Breaking the green oblique support gives, by the mast rule, a target below 143.

MA 23 will be around 144 tomorrow which could be a nice level for a short if we go there with meagre volume, stop above 144.25. Short is also indicated if the green oblique is broken, stop above the oblique. Scalp in between the oblique and 144.

As for today capacity of the market to hold 8.30 am level will give a good indication of market strength.

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  #422 (permalink)
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I was completely wrong in my last post and it was obvious from 8.30 am onwards when it was clear that cash opening level, at 143.89, will hold.

Moreover, as prices were above Thursday's HoD, upward potential was illimited.

Market actually boosted from 8 am to noon, making at 9.50 a pullback near the former resistance of what I thought was a flag.

About noon, the market reached HoD, which was also MA 44 ut 4H, as can be seen on the graph below and then agressvie reactive Sellers pushed back prices to LoD, below the cash opening level. Reactive Buyers sent then back the market near 8 am opening level.

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On the graph, it is obvious that prices quoted above the former support at 144.25 was a spike and that such level is now a resistance.

Volume on the way down was heavier than on the way up. At 143.75, POC is not far from Thursday's POC (143.64) but most of the volume was traded at 144.19. Value is large and volume of the day is in excess of 1 200 000 contracts.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph above, result is a very neat doji with long legs, a clear sign of uncertainty where it is placed. Candle of the week is red with substancial volume.

As long as prices do remain below the high end of the doji, market is still in the downtrend and the 143 target is still valid.

144.19 (where most of Friday's volume was traded) is a resistance and above MA 44 ut 4H (at 144.34 Friday evening). On the support side, below Friday's LoD (143.43) there is the LoW at 143.25.

As there are no important statistics to be released tomorrow, I am expecting a trendless market ranging within Friday's range.

Last but not least, Pivot Point for next week is 143.77, going below would be bearish, going above a stop to the downard trend.

Gutte Nacht

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  #423 (permalink)
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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.79 Low:143.43 High:144.38 Close:143.74


The Bund was small lower on the day. The market had seen early buying up to the 144.38 high from Tuesday on the back of equity market weakness before easing gains going into the afternoon. The market has double topped at 144.38 and thus a break to below Friday’s lows could see the start of a deep capitulation. We would need to now see the 144.38 top give in order to start the process of a deep short-covering rally.

Support
143.25 **
142.82-00 ***
142.22-27 **
141.88 **
141.28 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **

good luck

144.38 **

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  #424 (permalink)
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143 target achieved.


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  #425 (permalink)
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Market opened and almost immediately dropped to LoD a shade less than 143, from there reactive Buyers entered into the market and brung prices to 143.68. market closed at 143.45.

Volume on the way up was heavier than on the way down. At 143.54, POC is lower than Friday (143.74), value is rather large and volume is an hefty 1 500 000 contracts, second to none for June 2013 contract.

Distribution was on two peaks, one at POC level and the other one at 143.21 with a valley in between. We may explore such valley tomorrow as there are no important statistics.

Candle of the day is red but with a long lower shadow.

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On the UT 4H graph, we can see that prices made a low lower than the previous oner while stochastics low is higher than the previous one. I therefore think that 142.99 could be the bottom for the time being and that the very heavy volume could be some sort of sell-off.

If prices go above MA 23 (at 143.75 this evening) and Weekly Pivot Point (at 143.79), it will be an indication that 142.99 was actually the bottom.

Capability of the cash opening level to hold will guide our morning trading tomorrow.

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  #426 (permalink)
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143 target achieved.




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  #427 (permalink)
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Bond Overview

The German Bund has seen choppy trade over the last week, albeit has seen some steady downside pressure. Bund yields have backed up to above the 1.5% level.
From a technical perspective German Bunds have continued to soften in their overall stance. The market took out the gap support on the daily chart around the 143.54-87 area made in March and traded down to the 143.00 handle yesterday. Although the price action has been choppy, the market seen faded on weak recoveries and significantly on Friday made a double top at 144.38 before selling off. This should now act as a key pivot. Below here we should see steadier downside pressure. The key objective for bears will be around the 1.7% yield level, which has acted as firm support for the market over recent months. A close through here may trigger the start for a major bond market capitulation. Otherwise, a recovery back up through the 144.38 level may signal the start of a very firm short-covering rally.

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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.38 Low:143.13 High:143.55 Close:143.46

The Bund was flat on the day yesterday, trading within the range of Monday. The market remains firm above the 143.00 handle a close below here may spark the onset of deeper selling pressure. We would need to now see the 144.38 top give in order to start the process of a deep short-covering rally. A move through the 143.86 level may be an indication that the market is set to attempt the 144.38 level. Otherwise below here the market should remain weak.

Support
142.92-13 **
142.82 ***
142.22-27 **
141.88 **
141.28 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **
144.38 **


Good luck guys

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  #429 (permalink)
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Bund market dropped to its LoD (143.32) right after the opening. At this level reactive Buyers pushed up the contract to HoD (143.86). Night session ended there as well.

At 143.58, POC is higher than yesterday (143.27) : Sellers are not anymore in control of the market.

Two volume nodes, one at 143.36 and the other one near POC, at 143.62 with a valley in between

Volume is a mere 470 000 contracts, three time less than the average of the three previous days.

I therefore analyse this move as a retracement of the down move.

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As can be seen on the 1 day graph, the three last candles are forming a morning star. The ICHIMOKU cloud is getting thinner and prices are moving from the lower Bollinger Band.

I have however the feeling that the Bund market is very weak : stock markets are falling and the Bund hardly rises and with very small volume. As soon as stock market will be on the rise, the Bund may continue its downard move.


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On the 4H graph, it seems that BUND may trade in a new range, 143 - 144.25 before eventually going lower.

There are Buyers in the 143.17-34 area and I suspect that reactive Sellers may enter the market in the 143.96- 144.25 area or at 144.36 (1 day MA 20).

Above such level, and particularly if there is a UT 4H closing, we may see a change of trend.

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Volume is a mere 470 000 contracts, three time less than the average of the three previous days.


Don´t forget to roll over to the front month. 1 000 000 contracts were traded in the FGBL 09-13.

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