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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #411 (permalink)
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I think that monday's volume was too low for an analisis to be worth.

This morning, the open is with a gap down and cash will likely open out of yesterday's range and value.

I will follow closely whether prices go back into the range or stay outside and act accordingly.

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  #412 (permalink)
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box breakout ??

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  #413 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-28


Average volume and average range. A down day. VPoC (144.15) is down. VA is lower too.

Market opened with a gap down and continued to move down for the first 30 minutes. Then it started to rise in a very choppy manner to its HoD (144.38) at around 15:00. From here it started to drop. After the release of the positive Consumer Sentiment report at 16:00 CET this down move accelerated on rising volume. Market dropped to its LoD (143.58) at the close. Essentially the market moved up on normal volume till the US markets opened, waiting for guidance.

The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart dropped to 144.64 - well in the upper part of the profile.

Nine levels of Resistance
• 146.82
• 146.52
• 146.06
• 145.76
• 145.18
• 144.86
• 144.69 (2x)
• 144.64 (VPoC, VAH=144.86, VAL=144.23).

No levels of Support

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Stock markets had an up day again.

Bunds have dropped below 144.10 into the "Cyprus Gap" (143.87 - 143.55).

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The daily volume profile is p-shaped. Below 143.69 the volume profile looks thin.

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German Unemployment rate will be released at 09:55 CET and OECD Economic Outlook at 11:00 CET (=05:00 EST).
Except for the 5-Yr Note auction at 19:00 CET (=13:00 EST) there are no reports scheduled for the US markets.

It looks unlikely that the down move is finished. So we will probably see a continuation of the down swing. 143.43 (naked VPoC) and 143.20 are possible targets.

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  #414 (permalink)
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As we can see on this 4H graph, market opened with a gap down below the 144.25 support level, made a pullback and then dropped heavily after US figure was released. MA 23 has not even been touched. Target is 143.

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For the first time since several days we saw Sellers that were not of the reactive kind. Result of the day is a big red candle. As forecasted, exit from the 145.70 - 144.25 range has been by below. MA 20 and 50 made the death cross and prices are now below the ICHIMOKU cloud. March 17th upward gap is filled.

As long as prices remain below the ICHIMOKU cloud, we are technically in a bear market.

As stochastics on all the UT are showing an oversold market and that there is not much volume below 143.95, I will not be surprised to see some sort of retracement in the course of the day.

143.92/96 is a first resistance and 144.25 a second one but I do not think we will go that high.

Not much on the support side before 142.50 but it is very far below.

How opening level will hold will give us a feeling on whether the down move will continue today or if market will make a pause within such move.

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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:144.15 Low:143.58 High:144.38 Close:143.61

The Bund was lower on the day yesterday. The market saw weakness at the open taking out last week's lows before squeezing to 144.38. thereafter the sell-off saw the market trade to below the 143.87 daily gap. Weakness below the 143.87-144.12 area should allow for the test of the daily gap close at 143.54. This is a medium term pivot and a close through here could trigger the start of a more sustained down-trend. A recovery back through yesterday’s highs could trigger the start of a deep short-covering rally.

Support

143.54-58 **
143.44 ***
142.82-00 **
142.22-27 **
141.88 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **
144.38 **

Good luck guys

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  #416 (permalink)
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50% FIB, gap of march filled

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  #417 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-29

Above average volume (almost 1 mil) but well below average range. An up bar, but the day - measured from close to close - is down. VPoC (143.40) is down. VA is lower too.

Market opened with a30-tick gap down and immediately was bought up by reactive buyers. It rose to its HoD (143.73) at around 09:20 CET. From here it moved down to its LoD (143.25) at around 12:25 CET, making an intraday double bottom. Market moved up again till around 14:00 CET. A very choppy range bound trading followed till the close.

The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart dropped a few ticks to 144.60 - well in the upper part of the profile. The last volume profile in this chart has a double distribution.

Nine levels of Resistance
• 146.55
• 146.06
• 145.94
• 145.74
• 145.54
• 145.48
• 144.86
• 144.71
• 144.64 (VPoC, VAH=145.07, VAL=143.85).

No levels of Support.

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Stock markets are down for the day.

The Cyprus Gap has been filled completely today.

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The daily volume profile looks neutral, the IB has hardly been exceeded.

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In contrast to the 2-Yr Note auction yesterday today's 5-Yr Note auction looked strong.

Eurozone Economic Confidence will be released at 11:00 CET (= 05:00 EST).
At 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) USA GDP and Jobless Claims will be released. At 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) Pending Home Sales Index will be published.

The high volume combined with the low range looks like selling is being absorbed by the market. Nevertheless I'm not sure that the down move has ended. A move up tomorrow morning on normal volume may set the stage for another down swing.

A move up to and beyond 143.78 may change my bias.

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  #418 (permalink)
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Nothing to add to FGBL07 post.

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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:143.30 Low:143.25 High:143.73 Close:143.57

The Bund was lower again yesterday. The market saw a firm gap lower at open before attempting to stage several recoveries. The rallies fizzled out at the lower end of Tuesday’s range and the market closed around the lower levels for this quarter. At some point further weakness should see the market have a give in day, which may be seen today. otherwise, we would need to see the market retake the highs form Tuesday around 144.38 in order to signal that perhaps the run lower has come to an end.

Support
143.25 **
142.82-00 ***
142.22-27 **
141.88 **
141.28 **

Resistance
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.23-36 ***
145.74-77 **
144.38 **

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  #420 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-30


A bit below average volume and again well below average range. An up bar. VPoC (143.63) is up. VA has risen too.

The day is made up of several zig-zag moves, not quite as choppy as yesterday. The intraday chart looks like a rising triangle. LoD (143.47) was made around 09:50 CET, HoD (143.86) was made late in the day at around 19:10 CET.

The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart dropped to 143.55 - well in the lower part of the profile.

Eight levels of Resistance
• 146.55
• 146.17
• 146.05
• 145.74
• 145.54
• 145.46
• 144.86
• 144.75.

One level of Support
• 143.55 (VPoC, VAH=144.23, VAL=143.29).

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Stock markets are up for the day.

The Daily chart looks weak: up on low range and declining volume looks like the next down move is around the corner.

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Again the daily volume profile looks neutral, the IB has hardly been exceeded.

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Results for today's 7-Yr Note auction are solid.

Eurozone Unemployment will be released at 11:00 CET (= 05:00 EST).
At 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) USA Personal Income and Outlays will be released. At 15:45 CET (=09:45 EST) the Chicago PMI will be released and 10 minutes later 15:55 CET = 09:55 EST) Consumer Sentiment is due.

The composite volume profile starting 2013-05-02 till today shows a thin area between 143.80 and 144.10: Maybe the market wants to fill this area. To stop this down trend the market will have to move above 144.30. In view of the small ranges of the last two days this looks a bit ambitious. I'm afraid these choppy conditions could prevail tomorrow too.

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