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A couple of things to add to the previous reports.
Result of the day is a red candle with a long upper shadow which end was only 5 tics from MA 50.
On the 4 H UT graph, it is obvious that market ends nearby the 144.25 support.
On a fundamental basis I do not see what could be good for the Bunds. If QE shrinks, less money shall be available to buy Bunds and if it does hold or expand, stocks will continue to rise and it is not good for the Bunds either....
For tomorrow, I would be very suspitious if market goes below 144.25 with small volume. In such case, I will look for a long, particularly if prices go above opening level. If 144.25 is broken with heavy volume, I will wait for a pullback to go short. If market rise on small to moderate volume, I will wait and eventually look for a short. Only if I see a rise with heavy volume I will buy.
144.25 is an obvious support, above 144.85 is resistance area.
Target if 144.25 is broken is unchanged (143)
Again well above average volume and above average range. A down day. VPoC (144.75) is down too. VA sits inside yesterday's. An inside day.
The market opened with a 30-tick gap up and continued to move up in the first 30 minutes. After the cash bond markets opened (=8:30 CET)bunds dropped on very high volume for about an hour. An up move to the HoD (145.15) at around 10:30 CET followed. From here the market dropped to its LoD (144.31) at around 17:15 CET, filling the gap from the open on its way down. This down move includes some volatile up/down swings. A pullback till the close followed.
This is the second day since February that sees more than 1 million contracts traded.
The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart has moved up a few ticks.
Stock markets are down though much less than yesterday.
With a bit of fantasy one can see a descending triangle forming in the daily chart - a bearish pattern.
The daily volume profile looks balanced. Above 144.95 the volume profile looks thin.
The ifo report scheduled for 10:00 CET (=04:00 EST) could be important. There is one US-Report scheduled for 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST): Durable Goods Orders.
US Bond markets will close early tomorrow at 22:15 CET (=16:15 EST) because Monday is Memorial Day Holiday in the USA. Monday is also a Bank Holiday in the UK. So excluding any external events (shocks) volume in bunds on Monday will be low. There also may be some reluctance to open new positions tomorrow.
There is a naked VPoC (144.10) from 2013-03-25. And there is the gap between 143.55 - 143.87 left open since 2013-03-18.
The VPoC of the composite volume profile starting 2013-05-17 - the latest swing high - is 144.76. Looks like this value finds acceptance. Looks like this market wants to move up.
I'm looking for a kind of fractal repetition of today's (in fact the last 4 days) intraday pattern: a move up to the HoD and then a drop to the LoD.
On the UT 1 day graph, we can see that MA 50 acted again as resistance. HoD was only 3 tics lower than yesterday.
Area above 144.85 was resistant and 144.25 was not tested.
Soon MA 20 and 50 will make the Death Cross and with this horizontal drift, prices shall soon exit the ICHIMOKU cloud by below. Not very bullish indeed.....
I therefore think that Bund will end exiting the horizontal flag by below. Such exit could be violent and must be made with volume to be valid. In such case, target is still 143.
The Bund was relatively unchanged on the day. The market was contained within Wednesday’s range, giving back gains made early in the session on the back of equity market weakness. The market left and inside day bar, and thus a break out either side could see the high/low from Wednesday give. This should then lead to an extended drive. If the market takes out the 144.22-26 area we should see the market enter and extended run lower. Otherwise, a recovery through the 145.20-33 area could see the market signal that the recent run of weakness has come to an end and thus result in a firm short-covering rally.
Friday saw average volume and average range. A kind of doji. VPoC (144.59) is down . VA is down too.
The market made a zig-zag move up till 10:00 CET. The positive ifo report drove the market down to its LoD (144.12) at around 10:30 CET. From here the market rose to its HoD (144.83) at around 16:15 CET. The move up was very choppy. A pullback till the close followed.
The weekly chart shows a down week with well below average range but well above average volume.
The VPoC (144.75) in the weekly volume profile chart has dropped from last week's 144.85.
If one measures the down momentum by the VPoCs of the last four weeks then this momentum has declined.
Stock markets made new all-time highs this week but are down worldwide with few exceptions.
The daily volume profile looks a bit p-shaped. The market stopped its down move just 2 ticks above the naked VPoC 144.10 from 2013-03-25.
US-markets are closed tomorrow due to the Memorial Day Holiday in the USA. Monday is also a Bank Holiday in the UK. So excluding any external events (shocks) volume in bunds on Monday will be low. Range will probably also be low, but the day may just was well be used to do some stop-hunting.
Candle of the week is a red one, included in the previous one.
On the 1 day graph, we can see that prices are near to exit the ICHIMOKU cloud from below and that shikou span is far below the candle line. MA 20 and 50 shall cross tomorrow, forming the Death Cross. Candle of the day is a doji of uncertainty.
Basic trading strategy would be to buy Friday LoD(144.12) and sell Friday HoD (144.70) as long as prices remain between these two values, buy above Friday Hod to target Thursday HoD(145.16) and sell below Friday LoD to target lower bollinger band and lower hedge of the cloud around 143.75
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 and 44 acted as resistance. I have the feeling that the week to come will see the Bund exit from the 144.25 - 145.70 range and that it will be by below.In such case target is still 143.
However, in the case, on a 4H basis, prices do close above MA 50 (about 144.80) prices could go back to the upper limit of the range.
The 1 day graph of BOBL might give a clue for tomorrow, with a very neat hammer, calling for a green candle forming a morning star.
With the US and UK closed, I am expecting tomorrow to be a day for scalpers only where same price could be seen several times.
Nobody wants to trade bund today.
Only 88 k traded at 1:30.
There is gap at 145.81 (10 may).
It should be good to fill it.
I will short this point if the market decide to go back at this level (stop 146.10)
For this week, please find herefter my plan (charts).
There is a daily trendline could give a false break (see my daily chart 4).
I like the idea to buy this point (144 or better) with a stop 143.60 (just below the naked vpoc march 1)
After, a short squeeze to go to the gap 145.81 and a big sell off in direction of 142.40.
Very low volume - below 20% of the average - and well below average range. A down day. VPoC (144.29) is down . VA has dropped a bit below Friday's. An inside day.
The market moved up the first 30 minutes to its HoD (144.65) and then dropped till the close. After 15:00 CET the market was dead.
The VPoC (144.75) in the 5-day volume profile chart did not change.
Tomorrow morning there is an Italian 12-month Notes auction scheduled at 11:10 CET (=05:10 EST). There are two reports scheduled for the afternoon: Consumer Confidence at 16:00 CET (=10:00EST) and Dallas Fed Mfg Survey at 16:30 CET (=10:30 EST).
