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On a week basis, last week candle, a green one, failed to go end higher than mid level of the previous big red one.
Volume is also lower. Also last week, the downard May 10th gap remained open.
On the UT 1 day graph, we can see that today's candle, together with Friday's almost stonegrave doji and Thursday's green candle form a shooting star. Prices were not able to get out from the ICHIMOKU cloud and more important, Chikou span is still below the candle line. Market ends below MA 50 which acted as resistance today.
All these features together are showing market weakness.
On the UT 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 acted as a resistance while MA 23 is flat.
It looks like that Bund future is ranging bewteen 144.30/40 and 145.65/75
I am expecting prices to remain in such range tomorrow. Exit from such range shall give the next short term move.
The Bund was lower on the day. The market gapped lower in the morning, before squeezing up to the 145.33 level. Thereafter weakness seen in the late afternoon session saw the market break back into the consolidation area for much of last week. A break to below the 144.53 level should see the lows form last week tested around 144.22. below here the 143.87-95 area should come under-pressure. A recovery through yesterday’s highs should then mean that perhaps the recent run of weakness has come to an end and thus spark a firm short-covering rally.
From a technical perspective German Bunds have dramatically softened in their overall stance over the last week. The market made a low at 144.22 last week before staging a firm rebound to 145.74. This level coincided with the daily gap left on the Friday prior, albeit the market failed to close the gap totally. Since then the market has softened again. A break to below the 144.53 low made last Thursday should signal the markets intent to test and break down through the 144.22 low print made last week. This should then pave the way for a test of the medium term pivot around the 143.54-87 area. A close through here should be the signal that the market is set to gradually trend towards the 1.7% yield level again. A recovery to back above Friday’s highs at 145.74 would be significant. It may show that the recent run lower in prices has come to an end and given the weight of short-interest in bonds, could spark a deep short-covering rally. A move through yesterday’s 145.33 highs may be an ominous sign for the bears.
Bernanke’s Humphrey Hawkins speech and Fed minutes tomorrow eyed
Chatter of late around the bond markets and the USD has been centred on the Fed potentially signalling some sort of tapering of their current Q.E. 3 programme. Although the US macro-data has been anything but impressive, there seems to be a growing concern that the Fed’s programme is starting to carry unwanted risks. A number of Fed speakers, even Janet Yellen the arch dove, have started to use the term search for yield to describe the markets in a pejorative way. Combined with the slightly more encouraging employment data from the US, the markets are now looking for some hints to the Fed’s future policy path. There has been talk that the Fed may signal a tapering of their asset purchases in the summer albeit remain goal driven about when to totally end the programme. This has allowed the USD to enter a firm trend higher over the course of this month and has weighed slightly on bond markets. A signal for this intent, or not, could come at Bernanke’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony tomorrow or in the Fed minutes report later tomorrow. This could be a key day for Bunds.
Slightly above average volume but average range. A down day. VPoC (144.37) is down. VA has dropped too.
After the open the market dropped on average volume till the stock market opened. Then an up move to the HoD (144.92) at around 12:20 CET followed. The HoD is about 4 ticks higher than the high of the opening bar forming a kind of intraday double top. From here the market dropped to its LoD (144.25) at around 16:20 CET. A strong pullback - retracing about 48 ticks of the days 67 tick range - followed.
Except for today's last pullback the intraday moves of Friday - Tuesday have some similarity.
Stock markets are up again, though by small amounts.
The market stopped its drop just a few ticks above the latest swing low (144.22).
The daily volume profile looks like a two node distribution: one node around the VAH (144.72) and one node around the VPoC (144.37). The thin area in the Volume Profile of last Tuesday has been filled.
Most influential reports tomorrow will be Ben Bernanke's Testimonial before the Congress at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) and the release of the FOMC Minutes at 20:00 CET (=14:00 EST). Bond Traders will look for hints about (dis)continuation of QE.
There is a naked VPoC (144.10) from 2013- 3-25. And there is the gap between 143.55 - 143.87 left open since 2013-03-18.
It seems unlikely that the market will stop its down move here, but the pullback in today's afternoon was quite strong. If the market moves up after the open to 144.78 and above 144.86 we may see another up swing.
If there is any indication of an end of the QE program then the market will very likely drop.
Bund future contract is ranging between 145.70 and 144.25. Reactive sellers on one side, reactive buyers on the other.
The exit from such range shall give the next trend.
As we are coming from above, I am expecting to exit by below. It would mean closing March 18th upward gap and letting May 10th gap open, the downard one......
In such case target would be 143. Alternatively, an exit by above gives 147 as target.
Incidentally, my forecast of week before last that Bund would range within the two gaps is still valid.
The Bund was lower on the day, albeit closed well off its worst levels. The market saw trade down to 144.25, juts above the 144.22 low made last week before rebounding sharply. This coincided with a broad based sell-off in the USD. USTs bounced firmly from the 2.00% yield level. The market is now well set up going into today’s Humphrey Hawkins. A push to below the 144.22-25 level could see the market enter a deep capitulation with the target being the 143.87 level. Otherwise, with the market putting in a potential double bottom, a move through yesterday’s highs could spark a very firm short-covering rally.
The market ate the stops above yesterday's high only to spectacularly fall back down to close near the low.
There are much more stops to be run through below this low and we will see if that area is going to be protected tomorrow or not.
Also, day full of reports.
Well above average volume and well above average range. A down day. But VPoC (144.84) is up. VA is up vs yesterday's.
After the open the market dropped on below average volume till the stock market opened. Then an up move to the HoD (145.20) at around 16:20 CET followed. The last leg of the up move was spurred by remarks of Fed Chairman Bernanke in his testimonial (starting at 16:00 CET = 10:00 EST) (More precisely: The testimonial was used to push up the market). From here the market dropped below its IB low in just 20 minutes. Volume was very high during this drop, about 4 times as high as the average for this time of day. A pullback and then another drop to the LoD (144.27) followed.
This is the first day since February that sees more than 1 million contracts traded.
The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart has not changed.
Though Stock markets initially moved up at the Chairman's remarks, they started to drop then by 1% - 2%.
The market again stopped its drop just a few ticks above the latest swing low (144.22).
The daily volume profile looks almost balanced. Above 144.95 and below 144.40 the volume profile looks thin.
There are 5 reports scheduled between 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) and 17:00 CET (=11:00 EST) for the US market.
Today feels like a bit like stop hunting: First squeeze shorts and then squeeze all those longs which opened their positions within the last few days.
There is a naked VPoC (144.10) from 2013-03-25. And there is the gap between 143.55 - 143.87 left open since 2013-03-18.
The daily chart looks like the market is going to drop down below 144.22 and towards this gap. OTOH because everyone expects this I think one should be careful and adopt a wait-and-see approach.
