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On the 1 day graph, I see for Friday a big red candle with volume, following a gravestone doji on Thursday which can be seen as a pullback on the support of the rising wedge. Target of the rising wedge was 145 and has already been achieved Friday.
Friday gap could be seen as a breakway gap as it is associated with good volume, possibly the beginning of a MT bearish trend. It is worth noting that for the first time since beginning of 2013, Chikou Span is below candle line, which is bearish.
MA 20 is flat but may begin to decrease Monday and acted Thursday as resistance.
If Friday break is not filled it will show the strength of the eventual new trend. A genuine bearish trend would be in place if March upward gap is filled and prices go below the Ichimoku cloud.
On the 4H graph, I see a downard channel and prices near its support. I would therefore expect some sort of retracement tomorrow.
An exploration of prices at March gap level, around 144, could trigger some reactive Buyers.
Would prices come back to 145.40/50 level and fail to go higher, it could be worth to sell the market with a stop at Friday gap level.
For the week to come, I am actually expecting the market to range between March and Friday gaps (i.e. between 144 and 145.70).
Average volume and average range. An up day. PoC (144.87) is down. VA has a small range and is contained within Friday's VA. An inside day.
Market opened exactly at Friday's low and started to rise immediately and on high volume for the next 90 minutes. Then the moves became more volatile, pullbacks followed but the market continued to move up and made its HoD (145.07) at 13:30 CET. A pullback and a sideway move till the close followed.
Six levels of Resistance
146.66
146.19
146.05
145.76
145.53 (2x) (VPoC, VAH=146.27, VAL=145.04).
Two levels of Support
144.56
144.03.
While ESTX and DAX are a bit down, US stocks are slightly in the green.
The daily chart suggests that the down trend will continue - maybe after another up day.
The daily volume profile chart shows a buying tail below 144.68. The TPO chart also shows this tail. Today's volume profile looks like it fills the thin area in Friday's volume profile.
Intraday the market found support at the 144.78 and 144.69 levels. Market moved a few ticks above the 145.00 resistance level.
There is one US-report scheduled for tomorrow: Import and Export Prices at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).
For the Bund the ZEW report to be released at 11:00 CET (=05:00 EST) will be important. A surprise number certainly will move the market.
Today's initial buying tail looks impressive, though the market looks like it is pushed up to let it drop hard. The ZEW will decide which way the market will take. A positive report will have the market drop (likely well into the gap open since 2013-03-18), a negative one may push it up well above 145.27.
Excluding any overnight surprises I think the market will open within the range of today's last hours and move up on low or normal volume - maybe above today's high - till the ZEW report is released.
A strong low formed with aggressive buyers formed today. Untill that is retested on increasing volume, I suppose the market will move back to previous LTF POC. However, right now, we are below the value area and still may accept lower prices.
Market opened at Friday's LoD (144.43), a level that was not to be seing again.
From there, prices almost directly rose to 145.07, which was to be HoD and then market traded sideways to close at 144.82. POC is at 144.87, lower than yesterday (145.11) and Value is concentrated in the upper part of the range, which gives the day a "p" shape.
Volume is lower than Friday's big drop. Market actually retraced about 38.2% of the way from Thusday's HoD (146.23) to Friday's LoD (144.43).
As can be seen on the UT 1day graph, result is a shy green candle which higher shadow dies on MA 50 (145.02).
The relatively modest volume let me see this day as retracement and not reverse.
144.43 seems to be a level where there are reactive Buyers and below we have our old friend 143.93, high end of March's upward gap.
As far as resistances are concerned, MA 50 and the higher limit of the ICHIMOKU cloud (in the 145.10 level tomorrow) are first levels, while lower end of Friday's downard gap (145.66) is a second resistance level.
Tomorow the ZEW at 11 am shall give the trend for the day and I will probably refrain to trade prior to the release of such figure.
On the UT 4H graph, it is obvious that the BUND is still in a downard trend but let us see what Mr ZEW has to say tomorrow.....
Today, market was two-sided for most part of the day. Only late it moved significantly down till the end of day. Close is way below value. The final auction is unfinished and the buying tail undefined as the last rally was probably caused by closing positions. We are in a very steep down move and for now it seems that we accept value below the LTF VA. Tomorrow we might continue down towards the gap from March, though right not the low seems very strong.
Slightly below average volume and average range. A down day. VPoC (144.80) is down vs Monday's by 7 ticks. VA has a small range again.
Market traded on lower than average volume for the first 60 minutes, then dropped to 144.60 and started to rise immediately. Similar to Monday the market rose to its HoD(144.99) at 15:00 CET making a kind of double top intraday. The up move was volatile on declining volume. From the HoD the market dropped straight to its LoD (144.22). The ZEW report at 11:00 CET was on target and failed to cause volatility in the market.
The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart has moved down.
In the daily chart the down move starts to look a little bit steep now.
The daily volume profile chart has a p-shape.
Intraday the market found again support at the 144.78 and 144.69 levels. 145.00 proved to be resistance.
There are several reports scheduled for tomorrow. German GDP at 08:00 CET (=02:00 EST) Eurozone GDP at 11:00 CET (=05:00EST) and four reports for the US Markets between 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST)and 16:00 CET (10:00 EST).
In the last half hour of trading the market broke below Monday's low (144.43) thereby triggering a lot of sell stops. This move must have kicked a lot of buyers from Monday morning out of their positions.
The down move late in the day suggests that it will continue tomorrow. If this happens we may see a sell-off day like Friday. OTOH - since this late hour move seems to have kicked out the buyers from Monday morning - we may initially see a mild sell-off and then another attempt to move the market up. 144.53 and 144.69 will be resistance then and should offer opportunities to sell.
On BOBL, no trend as well but an interesting graphic figure in ut 30', a decreasing squared broadening .
If 142.43/46 resistance is overcomed, target is 142.65.
1 BOBL tics is rouglhy equivalent to 2 BUND tics.
Equivalent fo 142.43/46 on BOBL is rouglhy 146.98/ 145.07 on BUND.
Above average volume and average range. An up day. VPoC (144.76) is down. VA is wide and encompasses the VAs of Monday and Tuesday.
Market moved in 5 zig-zag moves today:
1. From the open to 144.92 at 11:15 CET.
2. Down to 144.33, the LoD, was made around 12:45; 1 tick lower than the low made in the first 30 minutes. This formed a kind of double bottom.
3. From the LoD up to the HoD (145.01) around 15:20 CET. Two ticks above yesterday's high.
4. A pullback down to 144.60.
5. A 30 tick range till the close.
The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart has not changed.
Stock markets are up, Dax, ES made new all-time highs.
In the daily chart a patter similar to that in the week 2013-03-18 - 2013-03-22 begins to unfold: up day follows down day etc.
The daily volume profile looks balanced. The composite Volume Profile for the last three days has a p-shape with VPoC of 144.87, the same value as the VPoC for the last 5 days. The daily VPoCs since Monday are: 144.87, 144.80, 144.76.
Intraday the market found support at 144.36 - 144.40 and resistance at 144.93.
There are several reports scheduled for tomorrow. Eurozone Inflation at 11:00 CET (=05:00EST) and three reports for the US Markets between 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) (CPI and Jobless Claims) and 16:00 CET (10:00 EST) (Phil Fed Survey).
A break-out seems to be imminent, the question is What direction?
Following the logic of this up-down-up day sequence we should see a down day tomorrow: An open around today's VPoC followed by an up move to 144.93 or a bit higher and then a drop down to 144.40. Not much lower.
A balanced day with quite a wide range and clearly defined high and low. Buyers still strong, however there is no buying tail today, only remaining tail from yesterday. Insignificant selling tail at the high.
Close within value. If open is also within value, I would initially expect a balancing day. If the market starts accepting prices at the buying tail, I would expect a down move towards the gap. However, the low still seems much stronger than the high. Move back to previous upper value also can be considered. We shall see.
The first attached view shows a UT 2 days graph where can be seen a hammer that could very well be the first two elements of a rising star, to be confirmed by a green candle Thursday.
The second one shows the more usual UT 1 day graph, where we can see that MA 50, at 145.06, acted a third day as resistance.
The third one is the now familiar UT 4H graph where I see some sort of squared downard broadening formation included in the downard channel.
POC of the day is almost the same as yesterday : sellers are not anymore controlling the market which has somehow come to a balance where reactive sellers appear around 145 and reactive buyers in the 144.33 area.
Breaking the 145 resistance level would be a strong buying signal. Target would be 145.75, lowered at 145.65, UT 4H MA 44 value. Reaching such target would mean an exit by above of the downard channel and prices rising above Weekly Pivot Point (145.15).
Such target could be reached very fast : there are likely many stops a shade above 145 and 5 trading days volume profile shows that the area above 145 has not been traded much on the way down. It is likely that it would not be traded much either on the way up.
Alternatively, market could continue ranging within the downard channel with 143.93 as a major support. Reaching such level would still keep prices in the squared downard broadening formation, as support oblique is lower every next day.
Incidentally, my early week forecast that market would range this week between 145.66 and 144.93 has been right so far. Will it be true again tomorrow ? Only time will tell.
