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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #361 (permalink)
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Thoughts from the Trading Floor

Last month saw the key ECB rates left unchanged. However there were some takes from the press conference and subsequent comments from various ECB speakers which has led to the overall consensus to believe that rates will be cut today and for markets to have pretty much fully priced in a 25bp. Refi cut. The ECB press conference last month was more dovish than the March press conference. The ECB also moved towards providing policy guidance by taking their “this allows our monetary policy stance to remain accommodative...” line and adding “for as long as needed”. A few major central banks also introduced this type of guidance earlier this year. Key ECB speakers had been keen to stress that the outlook for rates would be very data sensitive and the poor overall data from the Eurozone has led to expectations for a rate cut. The major surprise would be no cut today. If this is the case look for further guidance for next month.

An ECB rate cut will likely be a symbolic gesture. The major issue that the ECB have is the transmission of their accommodative policy. SMEs across the Eurozone continue to struggle to obtain credit at low rates. There is a mix of views on how the ECB can correct this. The largest impact would be if the ECB started buying or guaranteeing SME loans. This would be close to a form of Q.E. And thus would be very significant, albeit lowest likelihood of happening. Other options, which would have little impact/significance would be easing collateral requirements for SME loans or using the EIB to help in the SME market. There seems to be some mixed views on the ECB council about whether they can affect lending rates for SMEs and thus any major announcement is unlikely.

Other than this, we should continue to look for any further evolution of the opening paragraph of the ECB statement or any other major surprises.

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  #362 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-02

Well above average volume (150%) and well above average range (200%). An up day, but PoC (146.48) is down from yesterday's, VA is extremely wide and covers almost all the range of the day. An outside day.

The market opened with a gap up and started to drop immediately. It moved down to a first low (146.38) at around 10:00 and then moved in a 17-tick range till 13:45 CET, the time of the ECB interest rate decision. Market was pushed up about 10 ticks and then started to drop fast and on very high volume to its LoD (146.17) at around 14:30, the start of the ECB press conference. From here market moved up on high volume to its HoD (147.20) at 17:00 CET. A pullback till the close followed.

The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles remains unchanged. There are no levels of resistance.

Six levels of Support
• 146.53 (PoC, VAH=146.70, VAL=146.33)
• 146.20
• 145.74
• 145.53
• 145.34
• 144.56.

ESTX 50 and DAX made very volatile moves during the ECB press conference. Stock markets are up 0.5 - 2.3%.

The daily volume profile has two peaks:
• Around the PoC 146.48
• Around 147.04.

Between 146.74 and 146.90 the profile looks pretty thin.

There are again a lot of reports due tomorrow. Most important is probably the NFP report due at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).

I think the market will try tomorrow to make another high. But there are several ways in which this can be achieved:
• Initially it will continue to drop. 146.74 - 146.78 looks like a nice target. Then up again. Prefer this scenario.
• It will move up more or less directly after the open to today's HoD and then reverse down.

Tomorrow's NFP is said to be negative, but today's Jobless Claims was positive. And since today's report is based upon a fresher sample, these two reports may cancel off each other. Anyway, NFP will be good for some volatility. Whether it will change the direction of the market or strengthens it remains to be seen.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-02.05.2013-22.06.39.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-02.05.2013-22.05.57.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-02.05.2013-22.08.50.png  
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  #363 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-29 - 2013-05-03


Friday had above average volume (130%) and again well above average range (200%). A down day, but PoC (146.86) is at an all-time high. VA again is very wide.

The market rose after the open to make its HoD at 147.11 around 08:20 CET. From here it dropped to 146.74 around 11:30 CET. A 20-tick range till 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) - the release of the NFP report - followed. The NFP report was much better than expected so bunds started to fall fast and on high volume till the LoD at 146.00 around 16:15 CET. A 20-tick pullback till the close followed.
The NFP report nullified the gains from Thursday's interest rate cut.

The weekly chart shows a down week - from an all-time high - with below average range and above average volume (taking into account that it was a 4-day week).

The weekly volume profile shows two levels of resistance (after 4 weeks without any).

Two levels of Resistance
• 146.65 (PoC, VAH=146.93, VAL=146.38)
• 146.20.

Four levels of Support
• 146.05
• 145.74
• 145.53
• 144.56.

Stock markets have made new all-time highs, driven up by the positive NFP report.

The up trend in the daily chart is still ok, it will be in danger if the market drops below 145.60 and be broken when prices drop below 145.00

The daily volume profile again has two nodes:
• Around the PoC (146.86)
• Around 146.16.

Next week is pretty void of economical reports. Especially for Monday I do not see any reports scheduled for the US-Markets. Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK so volume for the day will probably be lower by 30%-50%.

After such a high-volume drop I expect some follow-through: a drop below 146.00 looks likely. Intra-day levels below are
• 145.93
• 145.86
• 145.67.

To the upside I see resistance at
• 146.16
• 146.24
• 146.45.

Remains to be seen whether stock markets can continue up or whether there will be some profit-taking.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-05.05.2013-13.13.59.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-05.05.2013-13.18.38.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-05.05.2013-13.44.17.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-05.05.2013-14.28.42.png  
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  #364 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-06

Well below average volume (40%) and well below average range. A down day. PoC (146.15) is down. VA is down too.

Market dropped till stock markets opened (09:00 CET) and then started to rise to its HoD (146.36) around 13:00 CET. From here it dropped to its LoD (145.97) around 16:10 CET. A zig-zag move into the close followed.

The PoC in the 5-day profile did not change.

Two levels of Resistance
• 146.65 (PoC, VAH=146.93, VAL=146.30)
• 146.20.

Four levels of Support
• 146.05
• 145.74
• 145.53
• 144.56.

Stock markets again made new all-time highs, but with small ranges. For ESTX and DAX it was a down day.

Due to the low volume and range I would not like to make any deductions from the chart pattern in the daily chart. That low volume is caused by a Bank Holiday in the UK.

The daily volume profile looks balanced.

There are no reports scheduled for tomorrow. There is an auction of German 5-Yr Notes (BOBL) scheduled at 11:35 CET. And there is a 3-Yr Note Auction scheduled at 19:00 CET (=13:00 EST).

Today's up move stopped at the old level 146.32 - 146.35. The down move stopped a few ticks above the 145.93 level. I had expected the market to drop below Friday's low soon after the open. This did not happen: Longs were not in an urgency to exit.

Today's price level and PoC is comparable to that of 2013-04-24/25. Market then rose. OTOH OI has dropped since 2013-04-25: Looks like Longs and Shorts have been liquidating positions, not opening new ones.

I guess we'll have to see what stock markets will do: continue up or drop.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-06.05.2013-21.32.33.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-06.05.2013-22.05.16.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-06.05.2013-22.00.32.png  
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  #365 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-07

Above average volume and above average range. A down day. PoC (145.53) is down. VA ditto.

Market opened with a gap up and rose till stock markets opened (09:00 CET). Then the market started to drop on rising volume, made a first low at 145.48 around 12:40 CET. A little pullback followed, then market dropped again, LoD (145.37) was made around 15:15 CET. Another pullback followed then range-bound trading till the close.

The levels in the 5-day volume profile charts did change.

Five levels of Resistance
• 146.55
• 146.16 (PoC, VAH=147.03, VAL=145.99)
• 146.05
• 145.95
• 145.74.

One level of Support
• 145.48.

Stock markets again made new all-time highs.

The up trend in the daily chart is in jeopardy now, a drop below 145.00 will invalidate it.

The daily volume profile looks a bit b-shaped, more so the TPO profile.

There are no US-Reports scheduled for tomorrow. There is a 10-Yr Note Auction scheduled at 19:00 CET (=13:00 EST). The auction of German 5-Yr Notes (BOBL) I thought would take place today is scheduled at 11:35 CET. German Industrial Production is scheduled at 12:00 CET (=06:00 EST).

Today's up move stopped at the level of 146.27 - one level lower than yesterday's up move. After the 146.05 level had been broken a lot of stop losses has been triggered.

It must be tempting for bears to push down the market to 145.10 - that should trigger a lot of stops. From the 2013-04-11 there is a naked PoC at 145.17.
OTOH we are still within the buying tail of 2013-04-17: 145.35 - 145.52. And then there is 144.93. The shape of the daily profile suggests also that the down swing has halted.

So I'll try the usual tactic: If market moves down to 145.35 on normal volume after the open (and before stock markets open) I'll be looking for a long position.
If it moves up to 145.67/.74 after open and before stock markets open (on normal volume) I'll be looking for a short position. If any of these moves takes place on higher/lower than average volume I may change my opinion.

The rest must be derived from how the day unfolds.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.05.2013-22.06.47.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.05.2013-22.06.04.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.05.2013-22.21.54.png  
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  #366 (permalink)
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Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:146.18 Low:145.37 High:147.27 Close:145.55

The Bund was firmly lower on the day. Friday and Monday’s weakness extended into yesterday with the market holding below the 146.27 level and selling off to below the April 22nd weekly low. The market is now breaching key supports and holding below them which it hadn’t done in the April-May run higher. The 145.35 level s firm support and a move to below here could spark another decent run lower. Any pullback failing below the 146.27-36 area could also signal weakness gong forward. A move through here would be needed to allow bulls to re-assert.


Support

145.35-37 **
145.10-16 **
144.73-93 **
144.49 **
143.87-95 **


Resistance

1.127% *****
147.20 ***
146.92-94 ***
146.27-54 **
145.97-00 **

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  #367 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-08

A little below average volume and well below average range. An up day. PoC (145.54) is unchanged from yesterday. VA is contained within yesterday's. An inside day.

Market opened within the last-hours trading range of yesterday. Though on normal volume it moved slowly and with high short term volatility up to 145.72 around 11:45 CET. The positive German Industrial Production report drove the market down to its LoD (145.42) around 14:00 CET. From here it rose to its HoD (145.90) around 17:15 CET. A pullback with small range into the close followed.

The VPoCs in the 5-day volume profile charts show a nice ascending pattern - and then a drop of the last one.

Two levels of Resistance
• 146.53
• 146.05.

Four levels of Support
• 145.73
• 145.56
• 145.53 (VPoC, VAH=146.19, VAL=145.38)
• 145.45.

Stock markets again made new all-time highs.

The daily volume profile looks neutral except for the peak around 145.85.

There are two US-Reports scheduled for tomorrow: Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET (=8:30 EST) and Wholesale Trade at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST). At 19:00 CET (=13:00 EST) there is an auction of 30-Yr Bonds.

At 13:00 CET (=07:00 EST) the BoE will announce their interest rate decision.

Tomorrow is a Holiday in Germany but Eurex and Deutsche Bφrse are open.

The level 145.48 was interesting today - I'm not sure whether it attracted buyers who drove up the market or the move up was just another nice play by the algos. There was a hard struggle between 145.72 - .74 till the market broke above this level. Yesterday on the way down the break below 146.04 must have triggered a lot of (sell) stop losses driving the market down to 145.88 (and below). The move above 145.74 today must have triggered some (buy) stop losses. Today's up move just stopped at the lower part of this 146.04 to 145.88 level.

The market must be shaking quite a lot of people out of their positions: from 2013-04-25 till yesterday OI dropped by 100.000, almost 10%.

As said that break above 145.74 feels like short covering, not genuine buying. So the market will probably drop back to this level. A drop below 145.72 (.67) should drive the market lower. At 145.48 things will become interesting.

Alternatively there may be some more short-covering tomorrow driving up the market further. Above 146.04 should trigger another up swing. The clustering of the VPoCs around 145.50 in the 5-day volume profile chart could indeed mean that the market is in equilibrium here. So without a trigger market may oscillate around this level.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-08.05.2013-22.08.23.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-08.05.2013-22.07.50.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-08.05.2013-22.11.15.png  
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  #368 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-09

Below average volume (may be due to today being a Holiday in Europe) and well below average range (60%). Kind of doji. PoC (145.95) is up from yesterday. VA is also up versus yesterday's. Market moves still inside the range of Tuesday.

Market rose from the open to a first high of 146.05 around 10:00 CET. From here it dropped to 145.84 and then sharply reversed up to its HoD at 146.23 around 11:40 CET. Such moves are usually seen at a bottom and called a V-reversal. Market then moved sideways till 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) when the release of the Jobless Claims Report drove the market down again in a zig-zag shaped movement. The positive result of the 30-Yr Bond Auction at 19:00 CET (=13:00 EST) caused some volatility in the market: first driven up and then down.

The VPoC in the 5-day volume profile chart has not changed.

Two levels of Resistance
• 146.53
• 146.20.

Four levels of Support
• 145.73
• 145.53 (2x) (VPoC, VAH=146.02, VAL=145.43)
• 145.34.

Stock markets were up intraday but finished the day in the red.

The daily volume profile looks similar to yesterday's: neutral except for the peak around 146.15.

There is only one US-Report scheduled for tomorrow: Treasury Budget at 20:00 CET (=14:00 EST). At 11:10 CET there is an Auction of Italian 12-month BOTs.

Today looks like a repetition of yesterday: squeeze the shorts. The level 146.04 was interesting - first the initial up move stalled there and the market reversed. That drop down to 145.84 lured some shorts into the trap. The reversal back up above 146.04 drove the market up to the (old) level of 146.22. 145.86 served as support. The market seems to have filled that thin area from Tuesday (146.04 - 145.88) that was caused by sell stops being triggered.

Tuesday's and Wednesday's volume profile have a common (double) VPoC at 145.54.

The move down in the last 3 hours was on very high volume (for the time of day), so there should be some follow-through tomorrow morning. Though on Twitter the down move was explained by hedging activities.

If the market moves up initially - like today - I'll be looking for opportunities to short. A move up to 146.22 and above would mean resumption of the up trend.

If the market starts to drop I'll be watching that level of 145.54 for a long position. A drop below this level means the trend has reversed to a down trend.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-09.05.2013-22.07.03.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-09.05.2013-22.04.51.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-09.05.2013-22.12.19.png  
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  #369 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-05-06 - 2013-05-10

Friday had well above average volume and almost 200% of the average range. A down day. PoC (145.13) is down and it has the lowest value since 2013-03-27. VA is wide but also the lowest since that day.

Market opened with a gap down and immediately started to drop on high volume during the first 30 minutes. The drop stalled for about an hour and then the market continued to drop hard and fast on very high volume. A sideway range followed for about 2 hours; then the market dropped to its first low (144.84) at around 13:00 CET. A pullback up to 145.26 followed and the down move resumed: market dropped to its LoD (144.43) at around 17:30 CET. A little pullback into the close followed.

When the market dropped below 145.40 at 09:32 CET it seemed to have triggered a lot of sell stops taking it down immediately to 145.25. But since the market traded below 145.40 in the first 30 minutes it looks like those trying to push up the market after 08:30 had given up and dumped their positions.

The decline is attributed to rumours about an end of QE.

The weekly volume profile chart shows that the market is only 80 ticks above the start of the latest up trend (on 2013-03-18). There still is an 33 tick gap open from that week.

Usually I look at 4 - 6 weeks only but I think it is ok now to include more weeks.

Seven levels of Resistance
• 146.66
• 146.19
• 146.05
• 145.76
• 145.53 (2x) (VPoC, VAH=146.02, VAL=145.43)
• 145.19.

One level of Support
• 144.22.

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The weekly chart shows a down week with average range and volume. The up trend is losing momentum but still ok.

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Stock markets had another up week.

In the daily chart the up trend is broken. Market has dropped into the range of the week from 2013-03-13 - 2013-03-22. OI has declined almost to the level after the latest roll-over. Looks like speculative longs have pocketed profits and/or given up.

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The daily volume profile chart shows that on Friday the market broke two naked VPoCs: 145.17 (from 2013-04-11) and 144.60 (from 2013-03-26). It also dropped below the buying tails from 2013-03-27 and 2013-04-11.

The market has dropped into the range of the week 2013-03-18 - 2013-03-22. The up move from that date to 2013-04-05 looks ok, while during the very latest leg from the 2013-04-12 till the latest high (2013-05-02) the market looked struggling.

Market had opened the week 2013-03-18 - 2013-03-22 with a huge gap up. If the market drops below the range of this week it may well close the 33 ticks still open from the gap. The CVPoC 143.20 looks like a nice target.

The late hours of Friday provide no clue as to where the market will go.

Looks like there has been buying below 144.53, maybe shorts taking profits.

It seems a bit unlikely that such a down move will reverse up immediately. So we will probably see some more selling on Monday morning. An initial drop to 144.40 on normal volume may provide the opportunity for a pullback.

If the markets starts to move up, 144.78 and 145.00 may serve as resistance levels. Friday the up moves stopped at the 145.48 and 145.27 levels and the market resumed to drop from there. So - if the markets moves up to these levels at all - a break above these levels will suggest a trend reversal.

There are two reports scheduled for tomorrow: Retail Sales at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) and Business Inventories at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST). At 11:10 CET there will be an auction of Italian 3-Yr Notes.

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PMA for May 13


The market heads down towards the gap up that happend in March (and is described so well in the previous post) and I would consider it as a strong support, should the market trade down towards it, with the price then going back up to the currently developed value.

From LTF perspective, I can still see the uptrend and building of the volume at higher prices, even though Friday was such a huge down day. Untill the market breaks down below the gap from March with significant momentum and volume, the LTF uptrend is not broken.

Tomorrow, I assume we might slowly continue in the downward move towards closing the gap but not more than that and I expect responsive buyers near 143.95 or even higher. We shall see.

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