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Below average volume and well below average range - about 50% of the average. An up day. PoC (146.20) is identical with yesterday's, VA is very tight.
Market dropped from the open to its LoD (146.04) and then rose to its HoD (146.37) at about 10:00 CET. From here it dropped back to its LoD at 11:00 CET and then started to move in a tight range till the close.
The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles rose to 146.19.
Six levels of Support
146.19 (PoC, VAH=146.34, VAL=145.90)
145.74
145.53
145.35
144.55
143.12.
There are two reports scheduled for tomorrow: US GDP at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) and Consumer Sentiment at 15:55 CET (=09:55 EST).
Market traded around the level 146.15 - 146.21 which looked influential already yesterday. The up move stopped at the 146.36 level, 146.08 -.10 provided support.
I had expected the market to move up further, but obviously it didn't. Looks like the market is waiting for clues where to go and is preparing a break-out in which-ever direction.
The worst thing that can happen is that the market will be quiet till next Thursday when the ECB meets for its interest rate decision.
In the last 2 hours of trading the market moved up on higher than average volume (for this time of day). This may serve as clue that we will see an up move tomorrow, at least initially.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
The Bund was flat on the day. The market traded down to the 146.00 handle however was firm around those lows. The 146.54 level remains important on the upside and a move and close above here may be the signal that this trend higher in Bunds remains firm. Bonds may be supported by a search for yield which is also driving risk markets and thus the inverse correlation to risky assets may not be the main driver of the trend. We would need to see a close below the 145.62 level from Wednesday in order to potentially signal that the market has now turned to the downside.
Friday was another boring day with not much to say about.
I attached a 1 day graph of BOBL which is clearly progressing in a square rising triangle. It is a continuation structure so as BOBL came from below, the most likely is an exit by above. MA 20 is in support.
It is worth noting last HoD's : 126.87 Friday, 126.83 Thursday, 126.84 Wednesday, 126.98 Tuesday and 126.88 Monday. There is clearly a big resistance in the 126.80/127 level. In the case it is broken, a violent upward move is to be expected.
The 1 day graph for BUND is a rising structure as well but looks more like a wedge, which is a bearish structure.
MA 20 (around 146 monday) is here again also in support.
Volume profile of the past 5 trading days shows a node around 146.20. Pivot Point for next week will be at 146.31.
A day closing below 146 would be very negative with the lower bollinger band (145.10) as target but as long as prices do remain above the 146.20-30 level, the upward trend remains valid with 147 (R1) as a first target.
Market seems to wait some triggering event before resuming the upward trend or reversing it to the down side.
Swing traders must be patient otherwise they will only make their broker richer. Monday could very well be a third day for scalpers, unless the triggering event finally comes.
Friday had below average volume and well below average range. An up day. PoC (146.54) is up too, higher than that of Tuesday. VA is up too.
The market opened with a gap up, dropped to its LoD (146.29) at 11:40 CET and then moved up to its HoD (146.63) at 14:30 CET. The rest of the day was sideways trading in a small range till the close.
The weekly chart shows an up week though the range is below average while the volume is above average.
The weekly volume profiles show an up trend by rising PoCs though the "gains" - measured in distance of the PoCs - are getting smaller. There are no levels of resistance.
Six levels of Support
146.19 (PoC, VAH=146.43, VAL=145.89)
146.05
145.74
145.53
144.55
144.04.
The up trend in the daily chart is still OK. With a bit of fantasy one can see a rising wedge, which is bearish.
Friday's volume profile has two distinct peaks: one around the PoC (146.54) and one around the VAL 146.39.
US and European stock markets had a strong performance last week.
Next week is packed with reports. Most prominent are the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday.
For the Bunds the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday will be important. In the last few days there have been rumours that the ECB will cut rates.
One important thing to be aware of: Eurex is closed on May, 1st. So an immediate reaction to the FOMC's decision is not possible.
Last week's volume Profile looks almost balanced. There are two areas standing out:
146.53 - 146.55 (Resistance on Friday)
146.35 - 146.38 (Support on Friday).
The profile looks thin above 146.66. Which is the top of an area from last Tuesday which was a selling area.
For tomorrow I expect a quiet start into the day: the market will look at the stock markets (and reports) for direction. The two areas mentioned above will serve as points of reference. I think an initial drift down to 146.35 looks most likely. From here a drop in stocks will be needed to move the market higher.
There is one report scheduled for 11:00 CET: Consumer Confidence. And there are three reports in the afternoon: 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) Personal Income and Outlays, 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) Pending Home Sales. 16:30 CET (=10:30 EST) Dallas Fed Mfg Survey.
I think the US-Reports (and of course the US open) will further influence where bunds will go.
Rising, but below average volume and below average range. A down day, almost a doji. PoC (146.65) is up though. VA is up too. An outside day.
The market opened with a gap up, and immediately dropped to a first low at 09:30 CET. A rise to a new high followed and then the market dropped again to make its LoD (146.27) at 12:50 CET. Market rose to move above 146.66 and then formed a 20-tick range where the HoD (146.74) was made at 16:40 CET. The move from 146.66 to the HoD was very volatile.
The PoC continues to rise in the 5-day volume profiles. There are no levels of resistance.
Six levels of Support
146.55 (PoC, VAH=146.68, VAL=146.13)
146.05
145.74
145.18
144.70
144.22.
The up trend in the daily chart is still OK.
US and European markets are still rising, up by 0.5 - 1.0%.
The most volatile moves in the bund happened today before 14:30 CET, before the US reports were released.
The daily volume profile has several peaks:
Around the PoC 146.65
Around 146.58, Friday's VAH and
Around 146.38, Friday's VAL.
For tomorrow there are again a lot of reports scheduled. US reports start at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) with Employment Cost Index, then at 15:45 CET (=09:45 EST) Chicago PMI and at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) Consumer Confidence.
If stock markets continue their End-of-month performance then the bund will drop. Looking at the volume in the last hour suggests that the down swing which started this afternoon should continue. The level 146.32 - 146.35 may be a target. OTOH it is quite likely that the market will try to move above Tuesday's high before turning around.
So I think we will first see a drop and then another up swing. How far up remains to be seen. 146.77 looks a little bit high now, but 146.66 should be possible.
The resistance oblique of the rising wedge has been shily tested today, when Bund future contract was at upper bollinger band level (146.74), with HoD at 146.75.....
Target of the figure in the case of an exit by below is still lower bollinger band : 145.14 but for such target to be valid, a day candle must end below MA 20 1 day = 145.34 tomorrow.
In the case of a less likely exit by above, target would be above 148.
In the 4H grah, we can see that MA 23 acted as support (146.29) vs LoD at 146.27. Such level was only 4 tics below weekly Pivot Point (146.31) and 2 tics below Friday's LoD (146.29).
I see a resistance in the 146.75/80 level (April 23rd HoD was at 146.77) and nothing above....
As far as supports are concerned, 146.27/29 is a first one. Below there is the 5 days main node at 146.18 but going there would mean being below weekly PP. Then there is the supporting oblique of the rising wedge in the 145.85/90 level tomorrow with S1 (145.84) as a logical target if prices go below weekly PP.
If 146.77 is not overcome, I will expect the supporting oblique of the rising wedge to be tested.
I will take a break from the markets from May 1st to the end of the following week.
The Bund was higher on the day. The market was well supported on 2 dips to Fridays lows before breaking higher. The market took out Fridays highs, however fell just shy of the 146.77 highs. A move through here should then target the 146.89 all time futures highs. The 1.127% yield level is still quite away from here. A close below the 146.27-30 level may be the first sign of upside momentum running out. However we would need to see a close below the 145.62 level to potentially signal a short-medium term market turn.
Average volume and below average range. A doji, PoC (146.68) is up, VA is wide again and up.
The market moved up right from the open and moved in a tight 17-tick range till around 10:30 CET. From here it rose to its HoD(146.87) at 12:15 CET. Market started to drift down then till 16:00 CET when it dropped fast and hard on high volume. LoD (146.39) was made around 17:50 CET. The rest of the day was spent making a little pullback up.
The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles remained unchanged. There are no levels of resistance.
Six levels of Support
146.54 (PoC, VAH=146.70, VAL=146.13)
146.05
145.95
145.74
145.48
144.22.
The up trend in the daily chart is still OK.
The daily volume profile has two peaks:
Around the PoC 146.68
Around 146.78, the VAH.
The 5-day volume profile has several interesting peaks which also show in the composite volume profile (since 2013-04-11):
Peak between 146.66 - 146.68
Peak around the current PoC 146.54
Peak around 146.38
Peak between 146.20 - 146.24.
At these levels the market was bought/sold several times during the last days.
Most important event tomorrow will be the ECB interest rate decision at 13:45 CET (=07:45 EST) and the following press conference at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST). Rumours have it that the ECB will cut rates. Market started to rise 2013-01-30 and made a solid up move till 2013-04-05. The latest up swing since 2013-04-11 looks weak and fragile, market has been struggling to continue up. OI has been rising since then too.
I'm not sure a rate cut is completely priced in by the market. 25 bps are equivalent to about 200 ticks. So in case of a cut another up swing to about 147.00 may follow. If the ECB doesn't cut a drop to below 145.00 may follow.
Tuesday's intra day chart is very similar to that of 2013-04-23. So under normal circumstances I'd just look for moves like on 2013-04-24. An initial up move to 146.66 - .68 maybe 146.74 and then a drop to 146.38.
Circumstances are not normal since Eurex is closed today.
ES drops at this moment and ZN has moved up though the FOMC report had it drop.
The Bund was lower on the day on Tuesday. The market saw trade to just shy of the all time futures high at 146.89 before selling off into the close. If the market has now double topped on the futures, we should see any rallies back to the 146.68-77 area rejected and a close below this weeks lows at 146.27 could be a sign of weakness going forward. A push through and close below the 145.62 level may then be the signal that the market has toped in the short-medium term. Otherwise, the gradual trend higher remains intact and thus a failure to break this trend of higher highs and lows should allow for a push up through to all time low yields at 1.127%.
