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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #331 (permalink)
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  #332 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-15 - 2013-04-19

Friday had below average volume and well below average range - just about 50% of the average range. Similar to Thursday almost a doji. PoC (146.05) is down. VA has dropped too.

Market rose to its HoD (146.21) at around 09:00 CET and then started to drop to a first low at 12:00 CET. A corrective move up to within one tick of the HoD followed, forming an intraday double top. Form here the market dropped to its LoD (145.85) at 15:30 and immediately reversed up. The rest of the day was spent trading in a kind of rising wedge.

Stock markets recovered a bit and except for the DAX finished the day up.

Friday's volume profile looks balanced: evenly distributed around the PoC. Though the day formally is not an inside day (made a lower low) it has the look and feel of an inside day: a day of indecision.

The weekly chart shows a small range up week.

The weekly volume profiles show no level of resistance.

Six levels of Support
• 146.05 (PoC, VAH=146.30, VAL=145.80)
• 145.75
• 145.53
• 144.55
• 144.04
• 142.76.

There are two reports scheduled for Monday: 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) the Chicago Fed Activity Index and at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) Existing Home Sales.

The last two days I have been baffled by the strength of buying coming in around 145.87. Both days I had expected the market to drop below this level. With a bit of fantasy the last two days form a descending triangle - usually a bearish continuation patter. It does not make sense since the market is in an up trend. On the other hand the market has problems to move up further.

The composite profile for the latest up move which started on 2013-04-11 has a PoC around 145.73 and has a P-shape. A drop below 145.70 should take the market down to 145.40.

The direction of the market depends upon the stock markets: whether these will continue to slide down or recover.

Provided there are no big overnight moves tomorrow there probably will be a quiet market till stock markets open. An initial up move and then a drop to below the PoC looks likely. After that we will have to see what happens. A drop down again to the 145.87 level will be very interesting.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.04.2013-11.26.45.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.04.2013-11.32.16.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.04.2013-14.25.22.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.04.2013-14.27.39.png  
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  #333 (permalink)
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Just a UT 4H graph to illustrate FGBL07 report (ut 1day graph is unchanged with one doji more than the one of thursday evening).

We can see the three lower shadows ending at 145.84 which is precisely MA 44 value.
Market is stocking strength for a big move to come : either breaking the roof of the flag (the red oblique) or breaking the support oblique of the rising ut day channel (MA ut 1 day is at 145.55 tomorrow).

Before this happens, the Bund future will stay within the triangle formed by these two obliques and upon contact on one of them, unless there are overcomed with heavy volume, the winning strategy might be to sell nearby the red one and buy close to the green one, 145.84 acting a a pivot point between the two obliques, in a range 145.60 - 146.20

Stocks (S&P, DAX, EUROSTOXX, CAC) have made a rebound on majot MT supports, with however small volumes.
Therefore, I think that friday up move is a consolidation (of the downard trend). As a consequence, Bund future shall end breaking the roof of the flag but probably not tomorrow.

Have a nice evening.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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PMA for April 22

A balanced day, small STF balance withint LTF balance, buying tail, POC move up might mean value moving higher. We might still trade around this newly formed POC or completely reject it in a down move. We will see tomorrow.

Zones of interest just move around a bit.

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  #335 (permalink)
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Hi, 146.43 was the poc of the april 5 !

What's next ?

147.3 ?

Nobody knows....

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-gbl-201306-dtb-30-min-3-41386.6153.png   Bund Future 16/11-gbl-201306-dtb-120-min-7-41386.6029.png   Bund Future 16/11-gbl-201306-dtb-30-min-4-41386.6028.png  
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Bund Future 2013-04-22

Average volume and slightly above average range. An up day. PoC (146.35) is up, VA is very wide and up. An outside day.

Market opened with a gap down and dropped on high volume right away to its LoD (145.72) at 09:00 CET. From here it rose till about 10:00 CET, made a pullback and then rose in a smooth up move to its HoD (146.43) at 16:20 CET. Drifted down till the close. Today's HoD is identical to the PoC of 2013-04-05 - Friday three weeks ago.

Stock markets continue to recover.

The 5-day volume profiles do not show much change.

Six levels of Support
• 146.05 (PoC, VAH=146.37, VAL=145.87)
• 145.75
• 145.18
• 144.70
• 144.22
• 143.07.

There are a handful of reports scheduled for tomorrow. US ones start at 14:58 CET (=08:58 EST) till 16:00 CET (= 10:00 EST). For 19:00 CET (=13:00 EST) an auction of 2-Yr Notes is scheduled.
Two reports re the European markets at 09:30 CET and 10:00 CET.

The strength of the market baffled me again: ESTX50 and DAX opened with a large gap up and so bunds opened with a gap down and dropped. But quickly reversed from the level of 145.72 to start their climb up. A part of this up move may be due to the rumours (again) in the market about an upcoming ECB interest rate cut.

Today's volume profile looks thin and has several peaks: one around the PoC and one around 145.93.

Today looks similar to 2013-04-17 - last Wednesday - and so we might see tomorrow a repetition of last Thursday: An initial drop - 146.14, maybe 146.04 - and then a move up above today's high. As usual the stock markets will have to be monitored closely.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.04.2013-22.06.17.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.04.2013-22.04.56.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-22.04.2013-22.23.03.png  
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PMA for April 23

Price closed within VA, strong buying tail, looks like we are accepting prices higher (above LTF VA) so we might move higher, however I still prefer shorting back to value if higher prices are rejected.

SUPPORT
145.95 (?, POC)
145.85
145.64

RESISTANCE
146.27
146.39
146,55

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Market open with a gap down and dropped until some reactive Buyers were found nearby the support of the upward UT 1 day channel support.

From there, market rose up to the resistance area where reactive Sellers were found. HoD was at 146.43, four tics higher than April 18th HoD.

On the 4H graph, I see now an horizontal resistance (three points of contact) in the 146.39-54 area and on the support side, the oblique of the upward channel visible in UT 1 day, which makes a square triangle, a clear figure of continuation.

If the horizontal resistance is overcomed, first target is 147.40 and second target at 147.80. Resistance oblique of the upward channel is at 148.

Alternatively, if the support of the upward channel is broken, first target is our old friend at 144.93.

For tomorrow, if market goes back to the 146.80 area with moderate volume, it could be a good area to enter long, with a stop a couple of tics below today's LoD. I will refrain from selling nearby the horizontal resistance. I will sell only if the support oblique is broken with significant volume.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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Reverse H&S on BOBL

As said before, BOBL sometimes shows more comprehensive figures than BUND.

Here for instance, I see a reverse Head & Shoulders figure with neckline at 126.90 (the equivalent for BUND is 146.50) Target in the case neckline is overcomed is a healthy 127.40 (equivalent for BUND would be 147.80).

Obviously, market would drop severely if it fails to break the neckline......

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bobl-4h.jpg  

Last edited by MARS; April 23rd, 2013 at 03:10 AM.
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shorting shatz short term, seeya later

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