Average volume and average range. A down day. PoC (145.73) and VA have dropped.
Market started to move similar to yesterday: after stock markets opened it dropped on normal volume. A corrective move followed and at 10:30 CET another down swing on high volume followed. After 11:30 CET market started to move in a 16 tick range till 17:00 CET when it started to drop again on high volume for an hour. LoD (145.55) was made around 18:00 CET. A corrective move into the close followed.
Two levels of Resistance
• 145.73 (PoC, VAH=146.07, VAL=145.38)
Four levels of Support
Stock markets started to recover yesterday's losses.
Today's volume profile has a b-shape, the PoC is (almost) identical to that of Friday. Below the VAL (145.65) there is a buying tail, above the VAH (145.90) a selling tail.
I found the market today a bit strange: from 11:30 CET - 17:00 CET we have a tight range and then a drop on high volume - when cash markets are closed - follows. Market Depth was also remarkably high in the after-cash hours.
There is only one report for tomorrow: Beige Book at 20:00 CET (=14:00 EST).
I think the level 145.58 - 145.60 looks important: if bunds drop below that a more severe down move will follow. We'll probably see an initial up move tomorrow and then will have to see what stock markets will do.
If bund moves up, 145.86 will be interesting: that was a selling level today. And 146.04 will likely be a selling level tomorrow. Depending on what news we will see and what stock markets will do.
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We had a trend day within the balance. Both buying and selling tails, however small. A very high volume near high suggests acceptance higher. We may continue to go up to the very high of the range but who knows , value magnet.
Slight shift in interesting zones.
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Well above average volume and a wide range. An up day. PoC (145.91) is up. VA is very wide, VAH is higher than yesterday's while VAL is lower then yesterday's.
Market again started similar to the last two days: opened up and started to drop right away to make its LoD (145.35) at 09:15 CET. From here it moved up till 13:30 CET where a little pullback started. At US open - 15:30 CET - bund resumed its up trend and made its HoD (146.36) at 18:40 CET. Dropped off the HoD till the close.
Six levels of Support
• 145.73 (PoC, VAH=146.08, VAL=145.47)
These lower levels currently are of no interest.
Stock markets resumed their down trend and are down 2.5 - 3.6%. There were also rumors about an interest rate cut by the ECB.
Today's volume profile has a three peaks: one around 146.25 one around the PoC (145.91) and the third one around 145.51. Today's PoC is almost identical to Monday's.
At 09:00 CET the market traded at the level of 145.58 - 145.60 and then dropped to 145.35. I had expected it to go lower in such a case but at 09:30 CET ESTX and DAX were heavily sold off and so bunds started to recover.
There are two reports scheduled for tomorrow: Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) and Phil Fed Survey at 16:00 CET (= 10:00 EST).
After such an up move some follow trough tomorrow looks likely: an early move up to 146.32 and maybe above. Who dares to short tomorrow at 09:00 ;-)?
To the down side I see 146.04 and more so 145.86 as important levels. There are two thinly traded areas in today's profile: 146.10 - 146.16 and the other one 145.80 - 145.86. Looks like levels where shorts were squeezed out of their positions.
I was completely wrong in my last post. The day was trendy.
Before the auction result the market dropped to meet the support of the upward channel visible in ut 1 day.
MA 20 was at 145.35 and LoD was at 145.33 !
From there the market rocketed to hit the resistance of the flag visible in ut 4H, as can be seen on the graph (resistance is a paralell of the support below).
Result is a green candle with however two shadows on both ends and a much bigger volume than the days before. POC is at an hefty 126.23 and volume is distributed in three nodes, one at POC, another one at 145.90 and a smaller one at 145.50.
146. 54 (March 28th HoD) is an obvious resistance and below today's HoD (146.37) which was 3 tics higher than April 2nd.
I see the 145.90 level (the middle node) as a first support and 145.60 (middle of the flag) as a second one.
Stocks were heavily sold and some sort of retracement is to be expected for EUROSTOXX 50, DAX and CAC are on major supports. May be today was the needed sell off for the markets to rebound ?
Therefore, tomorrow, I am expecting Bund futures to retrace as well and I would not be surprised if the valley between the two higher nodes is explored.
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