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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #301 (permalink)
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Head & Shoulders

On this UT4H graph, I see the 144.90 level as a support wich sent the Bund from 144.93 to 145.84, possibly forming the right shoulder of the Head & Shoulder structure.

Such rise can also be seen as a pullback below the former support of the rising channel (in grey on the graph).

If prices do not rise above such former support and especially if they go below weekly PP (145.70), I will consider that the right shoulder top has been made and will take a short position accordingly, with a stop above the top of such shoulder, to target the 145.93 level (the neck line) and, if broken, Heas & Shoulder target at 143.30, which is not far from the lower range of the upward gap opened March 18th (143.56).

An ideal scenario would be Monday morning prices exploring shily the high side of IB, with low to moderate volume, finding somewhere some reactive Sellers that would sent prices below weekly PP, marking second shoulder top.

I would be very cautious to short if market opens droping moderately on small volumes but be more confident if such drop happens with heavy volumes.

I will therefore wait for cash stock market to open and maybe even Empire State figure released at 2.30 pm before taking a swing short position. Target is low enough to afford not making the first 20 or 30 tics of a potentially 250 tics move.

If market rises above last week high, with good volume, there is still the possibility of a double top at 146.54.and I would then eventually try to buy with a stop below the lowest price quoted tomorrow at the time of taking such long position.

For those keen to short, an alternative strategy is to short BOBL if a UT 1H candle closes below weekly PP (126.60), with a stop a couple of tics above week before last hig (127.01).

Obviously, all these possible short term short strategies are invalidated if a UT 4H candle closes above 146.54 for BUND and 127.01 for BOBL.

Have a nice sunday evening.

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  #302 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
On these two weekly graphs, one related to the BUND, the other one to BOBL, I see a second hanged candle, with more volume than the previous one.

...

I think you have to be careful when comparing the volume of the weekly bars: The two weeks prior to the last one have been 4-day weeks. So you have to compare daily averages or something like that.

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PMA for April 15


Friday has a P shape after a bear move, it was most probably a short covering rally. Volume profile shows that we might have accepted value higher for the time being and the P shape also is not ideal as to its "ending".
There are quite a few nodes in the profile to trade around. For now, the interesting zones also remain almost unchanged.

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  #304 (permalink)
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Grpah in 15'. Future in a symetrical triangle. Waiting for the exit. 20 tics to make on both sides. As we came from below, I am expecting an exit by above but will sell if exit by below.....

Prices above PP weekly for the time being.

On the fundamental side, bad Chinese figure + North Korea with its toys......

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  #305 (permalink)
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PMA for April 16

"P" shape rejected, value accepted higher, though the originally steep uptrend is loosing steam a bit. Close is surrounded by thinnish area. The market is auctioning nicely around the nodes. Buying tail. We will see if we continue auctioning and accepting value still higher tomorrow.
Zones of interest remain unchanges.

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  #306 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-15

Slightly below average volume and average range. An up day. PoC (145.94) and VA have moved up.

Market started to drop from the open, stalled a bit and resumed to drop when stock markets opened. LoD (145.63) was made at 09:30 CET. From here bunds rose to a first high at 13:00 CET. After a correction market resumed its up move. It started to rally around 20:30 - when the first news about the Boston attack became known - to make its HoD of 146.22

In the 5-day volume profile chart there is no level of resistance:

Six levels of Support
• 145.75 (PoC, VAH=146.08, VAL=145.39)
• 145.19
• 144.70
• 144.23
• 143.30
• 143.07.

Stock markets were already in selling mood when they were driven down by the news about the Boston attack.

I think any further analysis is useless - and in view of the victims I feel very uneasy to do so. We have to wait and see what really happened in the USA.

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Bund Future 16/11-snag-15.04.2013-22.05.54.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-15.04.2013-22.05.05.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-15.04.2013-22.10.30.png  
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  #307 (permalink)
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Not much to add to previous reports.

Bund future is exiting from a rising wedge. Target is 145.75.

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145.75 Target achieved.

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145.75 Target achieved.

Bravo!

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PMA for April 17


We have rejected yesterday's high and sold off. Value area shifted lower, MTF POC shifted higher. Market closed within value area with late false breakout downwards and a small rally. Both buying and selling tails.
Since we are at MTF POC, I would expect some balancing.

Interesting zones remain.

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