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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #291 (permalink)
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Head & Shoulders ?

As noticed by FGBL07, there is a support around 145.10.

I see on the ut4H graph a possible Head and Shoulders, where Bund futures would have done the first shoulder and head and be back at neckline (145.10). If such level holds this morning, I will buy to target the second shoulder, at MA 23 level (145.75) or alternatively MA 44 (145.49), with a stop below 145.10.

Upon a rejection of such level(s) and reactive sellers coming in, I would reverse the position to play the return to the neckline and, if broken, the way back to the top of the upward gap opened March 18th (143.90) while target of the H&S, if completed, is 143.70.

If there is no rejection, I will keep part of the long position to target a double top at 146.50.

I have ordered the market to act as per my wishes, . let it be

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  #292 (permalink)
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In this ut 1H graph, I see a downard wedge, a structure with 92% exit by above. Target of such structure is in the 145.50/60 level, good for the top of the second shoulder.......

145.10 is the low of last week and some reactive Buyers may appear at such level.

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  #293 (permalink)
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145.49 paid. Target achieved.

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  #294 (permalink)
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145.49 paid. Target achieved.


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  #295 (permalink)
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Market immediately rose to its HoD and at noon was making its Lod. Afterwards, market traded sideways and ended at opening level.

POC is about 15 tics lower than yesterday, volume was as per yesterday.

The 144.90 level, former resistance as can be seen on the UT 4H graph, seems now to act as support while MA 44 acted as resistance.

Result is a very neat doji after three down days.
Such doji is very near from mid bollinger bands of UT 1 day. MA 20 UT 1 day was at 144.84 today and acted as a support as well, as can be seen on the UT 1 day graph.

The big question mark is whether the doji is of bottom or of continuation.

If the 144.90 level holds, the doji may be of bottom and prices may go back to the left shoulder level.
If the 144.90 does not hold, the doji will be of continuation and 143.90 is the next serious support.

Gutte Nacht

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  #296 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-11

Again average volume and range. A kind of doji. PoC (145.17) dropped, the VA is wider and a bit lower than yesterday's.

Market rose during the first hour on above average volume to make its HoD around 9:00 CET. From here it dropped till its LoD (144.93) at 13:30 CET. A strong pullback followed and then a drift down till the close.

In the 5-day volume profiles there are two levels of resistance now:

Two levels of Resistance
• 145.53
• 145.34 (PoC, VAH=146.09, VAL=145.13)

Four levels of Support
• 144.55
• 143.33
• 143.13
• 142.76.

With a bit of fantasy the daily volume profile has a p-shape. There are two peaks: one around the PoC (145.17) and another one around 145.35.

Stock markets again moved up though much less than yesterday. After 17:00 CET (=11:00 EST) they dropped till the close.

There are several reports scheduled for tomorrow: PPI at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) and Consumer report at 15:55 CET (=09:55 EST).

Today's intraday chart is almost a carbon copy of Tuesday's: the similarity is really baffling. Does this imply we will get tomorrow a copy of Wednesday?

Stock markets seem to be determined to move up. Maybe the news tomorrow can stop them or some people decide to take profits.

Market today dropped well below 145.10, but stopped at 144.93. I had assumed they would drop further down to 144.80 because of the shape of the volume profile. This may still happen tomorrow.

On the other hand: In the longer term Constant Volume Bar Chart the price and the Open Interest have dropped together to about the level of 2013-04-02. It's probably a too wishful interpretation that all who went long above that price level have exited their positions since then and so we can at least see a pullback for some days.

Maybe we really need to see capitulation. That means a down move on high volume (>1,000,000 per day) and high range.

If prices stay above today's PoC (145.17) and move up above 145.38/.42 I see a chance for an up day.

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Bund Future 16/11-snag-11.04.2013-22.21.47.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-11.04.2013-22.20.52.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-11.04.2013-22.27.35.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-11.04.2013-22.11.16.png  
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  #297 (permalink)
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PMA for April 12

Overlapping value area and close within VA could indicate an approaching pause and balancing. VA in the middle of the profile. No clear rejection at the high or low, though there are some thinnish areas. We filled the low volume node a bit (below 145.10 - which could still serve as heavy support OR resistance) and put some volume in it that is a bit larger than the volume in the thin tail just below HoD.

SUPPORT
144.50
144.92
145.10

RESISTANCE
145.32
145.53 (POC)
145.71

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  #298 (permalink)
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LEFT SHOULDER ?

Level of left shoulder achieved (with the hypothesis of an oblique neckline).

I went out from my long position and I am watching out the reaction on the 145.70 level, considering to enter short if some reactive Sellers are entering the market. Not for the time being.

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  #299 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-08 - 2013-04-12

Friday had average volume and slightly above average range. An up day. PoC (145.75) rose, the VA is in the upper part of the daily range. The up move recovered the losses of Wednesday and Thursday.

Market opened up with a little gap and rose on solid volume till its HoD (145.98) at 14:30 CET. From here it dropped a bit, tried to make a new HoD but failed and zig-zagged till the close. Looks like the up swing which started on Thursday 13:30 CET continued.

The weekly chart shows a down week, but with the close high in the range of the week.

In the weekly volume profiles there are again no levels of resistance:

Six levels of Support
• 145.75 (PoC, VAH=145.98, VAL=145.27)
• 145.53
• 144.55
• 144.04
• 143.30
• 142.76.

This week with a few exceptions Stock Markets rose worldwide. Dow and S&P making new all-time highs.

For next week there are not many reports scheduled. Housing Market Index and Housing Starts on Monday resp. Tuesday will be important.

For Germany the ZEW report on Tuesday will be important.

Stock markets dropped a bit on Friday (profit-taking?) while some commodities were hit heavily.

All-in-all it looks like stock markets want to continue higher, but that remains to be seen.

The daily volume profile for Friday has a p-shape with volume centred around the PoC, showing a thin long tail below 145.72, even better seen in a TPO chart. Shows almost single prints only in this area. This thin area looks more like short-covering than buying. In fact there are two levels which show no trades on the bid.
The up move stalled at 145.82, Tuesday's PoC. Another level from Tuesday - 145.72 - then delivered support.

I think it is safe to assume that tomorrow morning there will be insecurity as to the further development in the stock markets. Bunds will wait for the European open and even more so for the US open.

A drop on low volume to 145.72 should be a buying opportunity. For an up move market should go above 145.93 and 146.04.

A drop below 145.60/.50 would look negative (associated with a rise in stocks). The market could easily revisit 145.10 and 144.93 then.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.04.2013-11.53.45.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.04.2013-11.57.50.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.04.2013-12.22.32.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.04.2013-12.28.38.png  
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  #300 (permalink)
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WEEKLY GRAPH


On these two weekly graphs, one related to the BUND, the other one to BOBL, I see a second hanged candle, with more volume than the previous one.

POC is at a low 145,29 and volume above 145,90 is very thin.

I see the whole thing as bearish, as long as prices do remain below week before last high (146,54), to be confirmed if and when prices would go below weekly Pivot Point (145,70).

Volume profile is made of two nodes, one near the weekly close (145,85) and the other one at POC with a minor node in between, at 145,60.

I will discuss possible targets in the next post

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Bund Future 16/11-capture-d-ecran-2013-04-14-17.18.20.png   Bund Future 16/11-capture-d-ecran-2013-04-14-17.20.21.png  
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