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Bund Future 16/11


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Bund Future 16/11

  #21 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
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An inside up day, range below average. The volume is in the down moves. Market drops fast and then tries to slowly climb back.

In terms of POCs today was a non-event as can be seen in the 5-day Volume Profile chart. In the 1-hour Volume Profile chart the last hours of yesterday and all of today could be viewed as rising flag - a negative sign. But as chart pattern it looks a little bit too big.

Maybe we will have to wait till after the rollover and the ECB meeting (both on Thursday) to see the market make decisive moves?

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  #22 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Trading: Bund Future
Posts: 277 since Aug 2011
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Thanks Received: 311

Switched to H13 today. This caused a strange switch of the nodes in yesterday's volume profile. Not sure why. But I think the effect of this switch is minimal.

The charts I'm using are back-adjusted so the volume profiles retain their validity.

A breakout to the upside, up to November's high. Volume was average, range above average. In the 5-day profile the PoC did not change for the first two periods. The 60-minute chart shows two nodes in its upper range.

If the market follows its recent pattern of one wide range day followed by small range/inside days then we will see a small range day tomorrow.

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  #23 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
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Another wide range up day, though not extremely wide.

First three hours were low in volume and range, but market traded around the upper node of yesterday's volume profile. Market then started to take off at 12:00 - Z12 stopped trading at 12:30 CET - and again at 14:30 CET: ECB press conference.

Looks like the rollover and the ECB meeting worked like a lid on the market that has been removed.

Volume in the 5-day volume profile starts to look a little thin now. The up trend channel in the daily chart suggests 146.50 as target. 145.00 looks like support now.

Tomorrow at 14:30 CET the NFP report will be released. This is often good for a 50 tick move. In which direction will depend upon the numbers released.

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  #24 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
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Friday was a below average range day, though volume looked normal. The up move has stalled.

The weekly chart (back-adjusted) shows a wide range up week. Only a few ticks away from this year's high. The 5-day volume profile shows a node at the upper end of its range.

Stock markets have moved up, but not very convincingly.

Tuesday the German ZEW report is due, Wednesday evening the FOMC will release its statements. Tuesday - Thursday auctions of the 3-Yr and 5-Yr Notes and 30-Yr Bonds are scheduled.

We may see some range-bound days.

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  #25 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Trading: Bund Future
Posts: 277 since Aug 2011
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Average range, average volume today.

Market was influenced by the announcement of Mr. Monti's resignation. First three hours stock markets dropped and Bund rose.

The most recent POC has not changed in the 5-day volume profile. The daily chart is inconclusive: this is not exactly the kind of reversal bar that signals a top.

Political (and economical) news will drive the market. If they were absent a down move over the next days looked likely.

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  #26 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
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Average volume, range a touch below average.

Market was pushed up in the morning, started to drop and continued to drop when the ZEW report was released. The rest of the day it moved in a 20-tick range.

The PoCs in the 5-day volume profile have not changed, but market has dropped below the most recent PoC.

The daily chart and the levels in the daily volume profile suggest a drop to 145.00 level - that's just 35 ticks away.

Tomorrow the FOMC will announce the results of its meeting. This could mean the market will wait for these announcements.

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  #27 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Trading: Bund Future
Posts: 277 since Aug 2011
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Thanks Received: 311

Below average volume and well below average range.

After the first two hours volume dropped and the market waited for the FOMC statements. Market then dropped on above average volume (for this time of day).

The low volume and range reflects in the 5-day volume profile: the PoCs did not change.

The down move of the last two days has lost its momentum which can be seen best in the intraday charts. Though I do not put too much weight to this fact. Today was heavily influenced by the FOMC meeting. I think the real reaction to the FOMC will be seen tomorrow morning.

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  #28 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Bund Future
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Above average volume and above average range.

A strange day. Looks like a V-top, except that the pattern did not happen at a top.

The PoC levels in the 5-day volume profile shifted down. The 144.60 looks like a nice level to drop to.

The daily chart is inconclusive. The 60-minute (30-minute) chart shows a nice reversal (up) bar at 16:00 (16:30) on high volume. This would suggest an up move.

I do not like the volume profile of the day, a lot of selling at the top of the range. For an up move I would like to see more buying at the lower end of the range.

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  #29 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Trading: Bund Future
Posts: 277 since Aug 2011
Thanks Given: 100
Thanks Received: 311

The weekly back-adjusted chart shows a down week. Market came close to its year's high, but did not move above it.

The daily charts shows that the market dropped from the upper edge of the trend channel to its mid-line.

The 5-day volume profile shows two levels of resistance (145.67, 145.34) and two levels of support (144.60, 143.86).

The 60-minute chart shows that the current down swing stopped at the support level around 145.00. Moves below this level have been met with buying.

Friday shows below average range and well below average volume. The volume node should signal an up move. But all-in-all this does not look convincing. May be a climactic sell-off is needed?

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  #30 (permalink)
 FGBL07 
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Trading: Bund Future
Posts: 277 since Aug 2011
Thanks Given: 100
Thanks Received: 311


Another below average volume and below average range day. Volume and range declining per day. Holiday season has already started?

For the third day in a row we see a similar pattern: market opens gap down, drops a bit and then moves up again. All-in-all the market continues to creep down but the net down move is small: around 10 ticks per day.

PoC levels in the 5-day volume profile did not change. Market almost dropped to the 144.60 level.

The 60-minute chart shows 144.19 as next support.

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