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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #281 (permalink)
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On this ut4H view of BOBL, I see a rising wedge and a double top in the 126.96 - 127.01 area. Weekly PP for the week to come is 126.75 to be compared with friday closing at 126.78.

On top of such bearish structure and the weekly doji, Friday candle makes an harami with Thursday one with more volume on the Friday candle

Moreover, on the 4H graph, I see a divergence between prices and fast stochastics.

Would prices go below weekly PP, break the support of the rising wedge and go below MA 23 ut 4H (126.72), final target will be at 126.20, which is also near from MA 23 ut 1 day and the top of the upward gap openend march 18th.

An intermediary target lies at S1 (126.50), which is not far from last week low (126.47) . Stop to be placed a couple of tics above last week high.

A short position would be of the swing kind and therefore could be taken for several days. Would the market go in our favour, a trailing stop would be put in place to protect profits.


Intermediary target achieved.

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  #282 (permalink)
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Alternative target achieved : 145.51 LoD paid versus S1 level (145.48) annonced as alternative intermediate target.

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  #283 (permalink)
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Market opened within yesterday range and value and with a gap down with 5.30 pm fixing. Futures went up to close the gap, made HoD and then dropped to make by 1.30 pm the LoD. Afterwards, market drifted.

POC is at 145.64, substancially lower than Monday and value is below yesterday range.

Result is a red candle, smaller than yesterday but with bigger volume. As can be seen on the 4H graph, support of the rising wedge has been overcome. As long as prices remain below the grey line, it is to be expected that market will look for the support of the oblique grey line or of MA 44 (both between 145.30 and 145.40 tomorrow).

Below, there is145.10 (low of last week and then 144.80/90 level (the grey horizontal line on the graph).

As far as resistances are concerned, 145.86 is a first one and then the former support oblique of the rising wedge.

FOMC minutes, to be released at 8 pm, is the major data for tomorrow. Therefore, I am expecting Wednesday the market to drift within the 145.40 - 145.90 range. More volatility shall be foreseen in the second half of the week.

For those who do not like scalping, better go tomorrow.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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  #284 (permalink)
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PMA for April 10

We are balancing in an uptrend. HoD was rejected, selling tail. We may be balancing tomorrow below that selling tail (rejection area) if the prices remain rejected or even explore below the previous POC.

SUPPORT
145.10
145.33
145.52

RESISTANCE
145.91
146.10
146.30

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  #285 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-09

Average volume and range. A down day. PoC (145.82) dropped, the VA is completely below Monday's VA.

Market moved up on average volume to make its HoD (146.06) around 09:30 CET, when it started to drop on extremely high volume. Made a first low at about 10:00 CET and then retraced and zig-zagged down to make its LoD (145.51) at 13:30. From here an up move on low volume followed till around 16:00 when that up move met heavy selling. Market then dropped till the close.

In the 5-day volume profiles there is one level of resistance now:

One level of Resistance
• 145.95 (PoC, VAH=146.18, VAL=145.45)

Five levels of Support
• 145.48
• 144.23
• 143.33
• 143.15
• 141.08.

Though volume was average today it is much higher than yesterday's.

The daily volume profile shows two nodes: one around the PoC (145.82) the other one around 145.60, the VAL.

Stock markets are up again, especially US markets though not as much as yesterday.

There is only one report scheduled for tomorrow, FOMC minutes at 20:00 CET (=14:00 EST).

US stock markets look like they want to move up further, maybe they'll take along ESTX and DAX.

The down move from 09:30 to 10:30 looked like longs selling. The heavy volume around 16:00 may have been longs using the opportunity to get out of their positions or shorts establishing new positions.

Market may drift lower tomorrow on low volume, down below 145.50 before stock markets open would be nice. Whether this will trigger more (long) selling remains to be seen . For up moves the area between 145.72 - .82 will be interesting. If the markets can move up above this level it should trigger more buying.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-09.04.2013-22.14.04.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-09.04.2013-22.13.08.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-09.04.2013-22.18.07.png  
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Low of last week rejected twice this morning. Future Bund at the end of a decreasing wedge (graph in 30').

I am waiting for the exit to do something.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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  #287 (permalink)
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FOMC Minutes 2013-04-10

FOMC Minutes already released:

https://twitter.com/TradeDesk_Steve/status/321969673216331777

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  #289 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-04-10

Average volume and range. Another down day. PoC (145.42) dropped, the VA is completely below Tuesday's VA.

Market dropped on above average volume right from the open to make a first low around 10:30 CET. It then recovered most of the loss till about 14:00 CET when it started to drop again. After a sideways range starting at 16:00 CET market started to drop again at 19:30 CET till the close.

In the 5-day volume profiles there are two levels of resistance now:

Two levels of Resistance
• 145.55 (PoC, VAH=146.20, VAL=145.46)
• 145.46

Four levels of Support
• 144.23
• 143.33
• 143.15
• 141.08.

Daily volume is a bit lower than yesterday's.

The daily volume profile shows a thin tail from the VAL till the LoD.

Stock markets made a crazy up move ranging from 2% -3.5%. Part of it seems to be due to the early release of the FOMC Minutes at 15:00 CET (=09:00 EST).

There is only one report scheduled for tomorrow, Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).

Today looks almost like a copy of yesterday: A selloff after the open, a strong pullback and then selling again. A noticeable difference is today's selling tail into the close.

It looks unlikely that stock markets will continue their up move tomorrow, a little profit taking may be in order. That should give the bund enough impetus to move up. The 145.10 level - which looks pretty important - is just a few ticks away: so a dip down below it on low volume should be ok. Up from there the 145.40 - 145.44 level will be hard to pass.

If the markets drops on high volume below 145.10 then I think a break down to 144.80 will be likely.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.04.2013-22.09.51.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.04.2013-22.07.36.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.04.2013-22.25.18.png  
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PMA for April 11


Almost nothing to add to the previous post. Maybe except for my fancy colors .
We formed a steep downward channel and completed a balancing range (for now). Only acceptance below 145.10 (a major support) will invalidate the balance scenario.

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