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The weekly chart shows a solid range up week. Volume looks lower but it is not since this was a 4-day week only.
The daily chart shows a nice up trend since 2013-01-30.
The weekly volume profile shows a two-peak distribution for the last week. One of the nodes is centered around the PoC, the other one around 144.70. Between 145.34 and 144.83 the Volume Profile is pretty thin. Though the market closed below the PoC (145.53) it remains to be seen whether this is really resistance.
One level of Resistance
• 145.53 = PoC (VAH = 145.87, VAL = 144.64)
Five levels of Support
• 144.22
• 143.33
• 143.16
• 143.07
• 140.95.
Stock markets show a mixed picture: The Dow made a new all-time high, the Dax is within short distance of its 2007 all-time high, but the ESTX is well below its all-time high.
The Cyprus crisis seems to be solved for the moment - the Bank run expected for Thursday simply did not happen. It may just be deferred though.
But the next candidate for a bailout is already targeted: Slovenia.
Thursday had average volume but below average range. A down day though the PoC (145.66) is up. VAH is also higher than that of Wednesday.
Like Tuesday OTF buyers seem to have been missing. Looks like the day was ruled by bots which just did their job to push the market around. The new high of 145.87 was quickly sold off. Besides the high two other levels stand out: 145.78 and 145.69. Market was pushed up to these prices and then sold down. The down move stopped at 145.34, a bit below the 145.44/145.38 range where buyers stepped in on Wednesday.
For further analysis/trade ideas I'll wait till tomorrow evening. Eurex will be closed due to Easter Monday and so we have the luxury of waiting for the American Markets to look for clues about the next move(s).
Last Thursday, the Bund future explored the high side, made a double top at 145.84 and then retraced about 38% of Wednesday rising move to close near LoD. Volumes were lower than the previous day, which confirms that Thursday move was a consolidation and not a reverse trend day.
As can be seen on the 4H graph, MA 23 shall be 145.10 tomorrow. Pivot Point for the week is 145.13. Therefore, 145.10 around is exepcted to be a support level and below 144.70 where one of the two 5 days nodes lies.
As far as resistances are concerned, Thursday double top is an obvious one and above I see none.
Thursday consolidation, wich actually begun at 11 am, is materialized by a downard channel that could be seen on ut
1 H.
Above 145.10, I will have a biais up in my trading but I will carefully wait for prices to exit such channel upwards before acting accordingly.
No much figures released tomorrow, therefore I am expecting a quiet trendless day. As a consequence, I will wait IB to be made and stocks opening at 9 am before adopting a strategy for the day. However, scalp might be the answer or, if I am very smart, trading the ends of tomorrow's range.......
US stock markets dropped and ZN rose. But the rise of ZN was on low volume. If that move carries over to the bund we should see an open above 145.52. The levels 145.69 and 145.78 will then be of interest: if the market moves above them on solid volume we should see an up day.
If the open is on low volume it will probably indeed be best to wait for cash and stock market open.
After the opening, the market shily tried to exit from above the downard channel and failed to do so. At that point, it was likely that the day will be a down one. Market actually went down almost immediately, with a short stop at Thursday LoD (145.34) to find at 145.10 some reactive Buyers around 11.30 am. Such level is almost the weekly Pivot Point (145.13). From there the market drifted horizontally, testing several time the 145.10 level to end at 145.24.
Result of the day is a small red candle with small volume. POC is at 145.18, much lower than Thursday and volume is concentrated there as well, giving the day a "b" shape.
As can be seen on the 4H graph, MA 23 is on support and shall be around 145.20 tomorrow, while market retraced 38.2% of the rise from 143.90 to 145.87.
Actually, the future Bundcontract is still in the downard channel as can be seen on the 30' graph. Such channel can be seen as a flag in the upward trend.
The exit from above such channel could signal that the upward trend is to resume with a target as high as 147 if market is making an ABC pattern, B being the downard channel.
As long as prices are above weekly PP and MA 23, the upward trend is still valid for me.
Alternatively, prices going below such items might indicated that the upward trend is in jeopardy.
Resistances are at 145.63 and 145.87.
143.10 is a support and below lies 144.80 (former resistance and level of MA 44 ut 4h). A minor node is also centered on 144.70
Tomorrow, I am expecting a quiet morning session and more volatiliy on the afternoon with the release of two important US figures as it seems that european stock markets only climb due to the rise of the US ones.
Below average volume and below average range. A down day. PoC (145.18) is down and the VA is completely below that of last Thursday.
Market opened up but on low volume and started to drop right away till 12:00 CET where it made a low at 145.10. A slow pullback up to 145.30 followed and then the market dropped to its LoD at 145.10. The rest was slow range-bound trading.
The PoC in the 5-day volume profile chart did not change much.
One level of Resistance
• 145.47 = PoC (VAH = 145.82, VAL = 145.33)
Five levels of Support
• 144.55
• 143.33
• 142.76
• 143.07
• 141.65
Bunds can drop more than 100 ticks before the up trend has to be questioned.
The daily volume profile has a b-shape though there is a little peak around 145.47.
There are only a few reports scheduled for tomorrow: at 14:15 CET (=08:15 EST) the ADP report and at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) the Non-Mfg ISM.
ESTX and DAX made a solid up move, SP made a new high but started to drop towards the end of RTH. Though the session is still up.
We will have to see whether this down move becomes a real one. Bunds reacted to it by moving up on high volume (high for this time of day) in the last 90 minutes.
If the up move continues the 145.35 level will be interesting: it was support on Thursday but the market dropped right through it today.
Next levels down are 144.93 -144.97 and then 144.89. That's the area where buyers stepped in last Wednesday.
In the composite volume profile since 2013-03-08 till today there is a thin area below 145.10 down till 144.85.
Morning was quiet and trendless, with prices drifting horizontally,and a shy test of weekly PP at 145.13 (LoD at 145.11). Such drift made the Bund future contract to exit the small downard channel by above. Upon release of ISM data, market begun to rise and ended less than 5 tics from HoD (145.65) as the rise continued after 5.30 pm.
Result is a green candle of almost the same size as the previous one. Volume is concentrated on the POC, at 145.24 with a minor node at 145.50 and a valley in between.
The main upward channel is still in place with MA 23 ut 4H in support at about 145.30 tomorrow and MA 44 at about 144.90.
Broadly, same supports and resistances than yesterday with 145.10 a strong support and 145.63/65 a potential double top (HoD of yesterday and today).
Tomorrow is BCE day with 1.45 and 2.30 pm as the main rendez-vous. There is also a Spanish 10 years bond auction in the morning which results are expected after 11 am.
I will be very cautious in my trading in the morning and could even refrain from doing something.
I may place some bracket orders in the market prior the release of BCE decision and Mario's speech as the market could go everywhere depending on what will or will not do the Central Bank.
Again below average volume and below average range. An up day. PoC (145.25) is up but in the lower part of the day's range. VA has moved up slightly.
Market opened up on very low volume and moved in a range of less than 20 ticks till 14:00 CET. Then the negative ADP report started to move it up. US markets dropped right from their RTH open and so Bunds moved up further. HoD (145.65) was made at 20:00 just shy of last Thursday's PoC.
The PoC in the 5-day volume profile chart did not change.
Six levels of Support
• 145.46 = PoC (VAH = 145.70, VAL = 145.13, there is a thinly traded area below 145.10 down to 144.80)
• 144.22
• 143.33
• 143.15
• 143.07
• 141.65
The daily volume profile shows a two-node distribution: one peak around 145.52 the other around the PoC.
The most important reports for tomorrow are the ECB interest rate decision to be announced at 13:45 CET (=07:45 EST) and the press conference starting at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).
Stock markets made a solid down move today, down by about 1%. In the past few weeks (smaller) sell-offs have been recovered overnight.
If stock markets do not recover overnight then I expect to see a continuation of today's up move immediately at the open. The high volume (high for this time of day) in the last 2.5 hours of the day suggest this. The reaction of the market at the 145.68 and 145.78 levels will then be interesting
Else I expect a lackluster market like today till the ECB report. The volume profile around 145.40 is a bit thin, so a dropping market might head there.
The levels down to be monitored are 144.93 -144.97 and then 144.89. That's the area where buyers stepped in last Wednesday.
In the composite volume profile since 2013-03-08 till today there is a thin area below 145.10 down till 144.80.
Back after Easter break, coming to a balancing market in an overall nice uptrend with no overlapping balanced value areas right now.
There is a thinish area in the middle of today's profile that may serve as support and we might be balancing in the upper part of the range tomorrow. Open will tell us more.
