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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #251 (permalink)
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PMA for March 26

The structure of the market remains the same. There were strong reactive buyers and less strong reactive sellers. One bulge is in the lower part, the other bulge is in the upper part. The upper bulge even has its POC in its lower part, close is in the value area, going away from the high. It indicates market going down tomorrow, back to value, if it does not start to accept higher prices and leave behind all those who sold and held during today.

SUPPORT:
143.89
143.97
144.08

RESISTANCE:
144.58
144.80
144.93

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  #252 (permalink)
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Market was trendless today with reactive sellers in the 144.75 - 90 area and reactive buyers at 144.50-55.

POC is at 144.60 with most of the volume traded at such level, which gives the session a b shape.

On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 was on support and MA 44 rising.

What's next ?

Generally speaking, when the entrance in a structure of continuation, such as a flag, is made by below, it is to be expected an exit by above. The more the 144.80/90 horizontal resistance is tested the weaker it becomes.

Therefore, I think that the more likely is an exit by above with 145.70 as target in such case.

144.50 seems to have become today a support with MA 44 at about 144.40 tomorrow and below the upper limit of the gap.

A minor German data to be released tomorrow 8 am together with some US data on the afternoon and in between, and may be not the least, an Italian auction for Bonds which results might be known shortly after 11 am.

Buena Note

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  #253 (permalink)
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PMA for March 27


We saw a nicely balanced day with heavy volume in the lower part. It was a neutral day and might signal a coming change in behaviour.

Value of the whole range is right in the middle so value trading would suggest shorting, however, we have tested the resistance at the top of the range several times and it might got weak. The market will show tomorrow whether it has found the value or whether it rejects it.

SUPPORT
144.52
144.29
143.97

RESISTANCE
144.77
144.85
144.93

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  #254 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-26

Average volume but well below average range - only 50% of the average. An inside day, an up day. But the PoC (144.60) is up and the highest of the last 7 days. VAH is up too.

The market traded in a 30 tick range till about 15:30 CET when it made its LoD (144.49) and moved up to its HoD (144.90). Within this range the market moved up to .78, .70, .63 and was sold off of these levels. Remarkable was also the .50 level: here the market was bought. The "make-a-new-1-tick-lower-low-and-then-move-up" trick was pulled several times.

US stock markets moved up, ESTX and DAX show little changes.

The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles chart has moved up. The chart shows still three main levels:
• 144.55 (PoC)
• 143.08 - 143.32
• 140.65.

There are a few reports scheduled for tomorrow. Italy auctions 5-Yr and 10-Yr Notes at 11:10 CET.

The buying around the .50 level looks solid but the market failed to make a new high. It looks still a bit weak to me and could drop off these levels but this would require the stock markets to rise and the situation in Cyprus to calm down. Cypriot Banks will open on Thursday and it remains to be seen what will happen then. A gap up on high volume could be the start for a down day.

If we see a pullback on normal volume after the open and solid buying then probably the market will head higher.

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Bund Future 16/11-snag-26.03.2013-22.08.21.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-26.03.2013-22.07.22.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-26.03.2013-22.12.43.png  
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145.70 target achieved (targets are given +/- 5 tics), 145.65 quoted.

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  #256 (permalink)
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PMA for March 28

A nice trend day with complete rejection of sellers, though seeing the price going out of the long-term range that started last January I would expect more volume. We still might see it in the days to come.
Currently, we have found a short-term value near today's HOD to be traded around.
My zones are a bit arbitrary and I will follow the current intraday structure development.

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  #257 (permalink)
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As expected, today was a one way market, the Bund future contract ending almost at HoD.
Result is a big green candle with no shadows.
POC is at 145,59 and volumes are concentrated there as well, given the day profile a p shape.

Target has been achieved and market is overbought.

High of the day (145.65) is the only resistance I see while there shhould be a minor support at 145.45 and then the obvious 144.90.

As can be seen on the 4H graph, MA 23 shall be around 144.90 tomorrow.

I would not be surprised if the market retraces part of today's rise. Fibonacci levels from 144.82 to 145.65 are as follows :
23.6% is at 145.44, 38.2% at 145.32 while 50% is at 145.22.

If the market can not go forward, I will sell below the 8.30 am cash opening level.

Bonne nuit.

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Bund Future 2013-03-27

Slightly above average volume and range. An up day. The PoC (145.53) is up, VA is in the upper half of the range.

The market started to rise almost immediately after the open, but really got going after stock markets opened and ESTX and DAX dropped like a stone. Made a first high around 15:00 and then its HoD a few ticks higher around 18:00.

US stock markets recovered most of their overnight losses during RTH, taking ESTX and DAX up, so these cut their losses in half. Euro dropped heavily again.

The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles chart has not changed from yesterday. Levels start to shift.

Six levels of Support
• 144.55 (PoC)
• 144.03
• 143.30
• 142.76
• 141.65
• 140.55 (141.00).

I think I have to redraw the trend channel in the daily chart.

The daily volume profile has a p-shape. The market continued the up swing which started yesterday at 15:30.

There are quite a lot of reports scheduled for tomorrow.

Looks like the market was driven up by falling stock markets. Remains to be seen whether stocks will continue to recover tomorrow or not.

The 145.44/.38 level looks interesting to me: If the market drops to this level and rebounds I think it might continue up. I will wait till the 9:00 CET stock market open.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.03.2013-22.22.44.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.03.2013-22.21.03.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.03.2013-22.26.56.png  
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  #259 (permalink)
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Fully agree with FGBL07 on 145.38/44 as an interesting level.

From 1.30 pm to the end of yesterday session, 145.44 was the lower end of the trading range.
Furthermore, 145.44 is 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rise from 144.82 to 145.66.

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Head & Shoulder ut 21 tics. Neckline 145.56. Target 145.40 if prices go below neckline.

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