Bund Future 16/11 - Bonds and Interest Rates Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Bund Future 16/11
Updated: Views / Replies:70,975 / 866
Created: by FGBL07 Attachments:1,341

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 1,341  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Bund Future 16/11

  #241 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

WEEKLY REVIEW

After making an upward gap, market ranged all week between 143.87 and 144.84, with a double top on the latter.

Result for the week is almost a doji long legs, isolated from last week candle. POC is at 144.19 and also the peak volume of a non directionnal week. Pivot point for the week is at 144.36, almost where the market closed (144.33) while R1 is at the upper hedge of week range and S1 at the lower hedge of such range. It's a balanced market.

If monday opens lower than 143.87 and does not quote higher during all day, the market may very well make a lost child on a weekly basis, a very powerful reverse trend signal marking the end of the upward trend since february 3rd.

If market opens higher than 144.84 and does not quote lower than such level all day long, sky is the limit......

An opening below 143.87 or higher than 144.84 and a failure to follow through, with prices coming back into last week range may induce a strong move opposite to the first intented market direction.

If market opens within last week range, the exit from such range shall give next trend.

Cyprus' situation developments are so important upon next trend that I will wait for monday's opening before making any trading plan for tomorrow. Therefore, I will not post friday's session analysis for I think it is useless.

Have a nice sunday.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund-w.jpg  

Last edited by MARS; March 24th, 2013 at 01:47 PM. Reason: "not" missing
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #242 (permalink)
Elite Member
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Favorite Futures: Bund Future
 
Posts: 278 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 100 given, 310 received

Bund Future 2013-03-18 - 2013-03-22

Last Friday was a down day. Average volume and range.

The two noteworthy things about Friday are that after making a new high (above Tuesday's high) the market dropped on high volume; And that it did not drop lower than previous day's VAL.

The weekly chart shows a small range week on rising volume. A doji. Though the market has moved up from last week due to the gap made on Monday.

The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles chart has not changed from Friday's. The chart shows three main levels:
• 144.22. This week's PoC
• 143.08 - 143.32
• 140.65 - 140.95.

The daily chart shows a nice pattern of alternating up and down days.

The daily volume profiles show that the VALs of the last 5 days have been rising. There are buying tails below these VALs, but Friday's is very short.

This market has been driven by the news and rumors about the Cyprus Crisis (whether this is really the case or the crisis has been used to push the market around makes no difference). It will continue to do so for at least the next two days. Tonight the Troika and Cyprus representatives will meet to find an agreement, tomorrow the Cyprus Parliament will vote about this agreement. News/rumors already say that the 17b € talked about till now will not suffice, Cyprus needs at least 19b €. I doubt that any agreement found will be the end of the story: we will see the same pattern as in Greece: after one hole is filled the next one will open.

Just looking at the charts I'd say that the market is bound to drop. The market made a little double top intra-week, the weekly chart shows a doji on rising volume just hovering above the gap, the up/down pattern in the daily chart simply looks weak.

But in view of the ongoing political stuff there is only one thing to do: to monitor the news and the reaction of the market.

A rise above 144.58 on high volume should take the market to new highs. A drop below 144.00 down to at least fill the gap from Monday. The key will be high volume and speed, low volume actions have to be taken with care.

Friday afternoon most action took place between 144.27 and 144.42. If there are no real news tomorrow morning then I expect the market to open within this range. First clues will come from Asian and Forex Markets.

There are only two reports scheduled in the afternoon for the US market.

Next week is a short one: On Friday Exchanges will be closed due to Good Friday. Eurex will be closed on Easter Monday (2013-04-01) too.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.03.2013-11.21.59.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.03.2013-11.19.29.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.03.2013-12.39.22.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-24.03.2013-12.41.21.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FGBL07 for this post:
 
  #243 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received


US futures indicates that stock markets are reacting positively to the last developments of Cyprus issue.

I am expecting an downard gap this morning. As can be seen on the 4H graph, BUND was drawing a rising square triangle. Target in case of exit by below is 143.43 but 143.54 will do (lower hedge of the gap opened last monday).

I am therefore expecting last monday gap to be closed early this week.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #244 (permalink)
MATrader
Prague Czech Republic
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: S5 Trader, Jigsaw, SeasonAlgo, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: IB/OEC
Favorite Futures: Eurex Futures
 
hadamkov's Avatar
 
Posts: 489 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 859 given, 391 received

PMA for March 25

The market has not moved outside the range and is regularly coming back to value. Again reactive sellers on top and buyers on the bottom. Interesting zones remain untouched.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Successful trading.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to hadamkov for this post:
 
  #245 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

Lower limit of last week range approached at 2 tics early morning (143.91 vs 143.89) : could very well be today's LoD : market still balanced.

Bund now in a range between Friday and Thursday LoD (144.21 and 144.04).

Exit shall give the trend for the afternoon. No US figures released.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #246 (permalink)
MATrader
Prague Czech Republic
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: S5 Trader, Jigsaw, SeasonAlgo, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: IB/OEC
Favorite Futures: Eurex Futures
 
hadamkov's Avatar
 
Posts: 489 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 859 given, 391 received


MARS View Post
Lower limit of last week range approached at 2 tics early morning (143.91 vs 143.89) : could very well be today's LoD : market still balanced.

Bund now in a range between Friday and Thursday LoD (144.21 and 144.04).

Exit shall give the trend for the afternoon. No US figures released.

I fully agree with @MARS. My bias is to go long rather than short due to such a low volume on the buying tail and cummulated volume right at the current HOD. But we will see.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to hadamkov for this post:
 
  #247 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Milano-Italy
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: bund, ftse Mib
 
terapiaintensiva's Avatar
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 515 given, 22 received

I agree with both of you.
I am long on bund and short on estx50.
Let's see.

Reply With Quote
 
  #248 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Milano-Italy
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: bund, ftse Mib
 
terapiaintensiva's Avatar
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 515 given, 22 received


terapiaintensiva View Post
I agree with both of you.
I am long on bund and short on estx50.
Let's see.

But now it seems again short, isn'it?

Reply With Quote
 
  #249 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

The higher limit of the weekly gap proved again to be a solid support.

Market opened with a gap down and from LoD (143.91), quoted about 8.15 nearby the lower limit of last week range. Reactive Buyers made it rose and afterwards prices drifted horizontally in a 144 - 144.20 range untill 1.30 am when the market begun a step rise and was at the higher limit of last week range by 5.30 pm (144.80 vs 144.84). After 5.30 pm, a tentative to go higher failed and reactive Sellers brung back prices. Closing was about 144.70.

All last week range was therefore traveled in one day !

POC is at an hefty 144.74. but bigger volume is around 144.10 only, with two other nodes, one at POC and the other one, smaller, at 144.40. Two valleys are in between.

On the 4H graph, we can see that three tops and three bottoms, with MA 44 in support.

In the case a 4 H candle closes above 144.90, target is 145.70 and 144.85 shall become a support.

If 144.90 is tested tomorrow morning and holds, prices may very well go back to where MA 44 lies (about 143.20 tomorrow).

Below the 143.90 level, same supports than last week.

I do not know whether Bund future contract will finally exit the 143.90 - 144.90 range by above or by below but I guess that the exit will be a violent one.

Gutte Nacht.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #250 (permalink)
Elite Member
Oberhausen, Germany
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierracharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers/DTN IQFeed
Favorite Futures: Bund Future
 
Posts: 278 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 100 given, 310 received

Bund Future 2013-03-25


Average volume but well above average range. An outside day, an up day. But the PoC (144.10) is down. VA is very wide and encompasses those of the previous week. A two-node distribution.

The market opened with a gap down but quickly started to reverse and move up after making its LoD (143.91). Then 4 hours on low volume in a trading range followed. At 13:00 CET the market took off and shot up on rising volume to make its HoD (144.93) at 18:00 CET.

ESTX and DAX had opened gap up but ended the day in red. US stock market also dropped in spite of the positive numbers. Euro also nose-dived after being up in the morning.

Part of the drop (and rise in Treasuries) is attributed to the remarks of Mr. Djisselbloem about Cyprus.

The PoC in the 5-day volume profiles chart has not changed from Friday's. The chart shows still three main levels:
• 144.22. This week's PoC
• 143.08 - 143.32
• 140.65 - 140.95.

The daily chart continues to show this nice pattern of alternating up and down days.

Interestingly the daily volume profiles show that today's PoC (144.10) has dropped to be the lowest of the last 5 days.

Using hindsight the reaction of the market in the first forty minutes was key for the rest of the day: the low was quickly rejected and below 144.01 there was heavy buying. Market came back to about 144.02 and then took off: looks like someone had absorbed all the selling and then pushed up the market, squeezing the shorts.

There are several reports scheduled tomorrow for the US markets.

Friday and today show (reactive) selling above 144.65, today there was buying below 144.01 in line with last Monday's buying below 144.97.

So these two levels seem to be important.

I'm not sure that the up trend of today will continue: a drop below 144.65 should take the market down to 144.40. A move up to a new high will likely result in rejection again. If this alternating pattern of up/down days continues we will see a down day tomorrow.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-25.03.2013-22.20.35.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-25.03.2013-22.20.02.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-25.03.2013-22.23.01.png  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FGBL07 for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Bund Future 16/11

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
German Bund Traders isildur1 Bonds and Interest Rates Trading 34 October 13th, 2017 10:25 AM
RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 17/11/11 Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 17th, 2011 05:50 PM
RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - Stocks, Bonds, FX – 04/11/11 Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 4th, 2011 04:30 PM
Bund and Bobl Cash Product jeffbg123 Traders Hideout 3 May 30th, 2010 01:20 PM
CL market replay for 11/12 & 11/13 Saroj NinjaTrader 1 November 14th, 2009 08:28 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:54 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.92.201.232