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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #231 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-18

Above average volume, but well above average range. A down bar, but an up day by comparison of its close to the close of the previous day. PoC (144.04) and VA are also up.

After the negative reaction of the Asian markets and the overnight drop on Globex (ES and EURUSD) the market opened with a huge gap up, 100 ticks up. But it started to drop immediately for the next 2.5 hours. A short correction up and a slow grind down to the LoD (143.87) followed. Then up on high volume again - high volume for this time of day.

ESTX and DAX started the day with a large gap down (almost 3%) but recovered during the session and now show a small loss only.

The 5-day volume profile for the last 5 days now looks strange: two nodes separated by today's gap.

No levels of Resistance

Six levels of Support
• 143.15
• 143.07 (PoC)
• 142.76
• 141.66
• 141.00
• 140.64.


The market rose above the (back-adjusted) high of last year made in July.

The daily volume profile has a b-shape.

Tomorrow there is one important report: German ZEW at 11:00 CET (=06:00 EST). And of course the development in Cyprus has to be watched. Cypriote Banks are closed till Thursday, but I have lost track now of when they will vote about the bailout package.

If the bailout package is not accepted then we will see some nasty volatility in the market. This would imply the exit of Cyprus from the Euro, the bankruptcy of their banks and have severe consequences for Greece.

The huge gap up and the following sell-off looks like people who build a long position last week(s) used this gap up to pocket profits. Likewise the rise late in the day looks like sellers had to exit their short positions because the market refused to drop further.

The market seems to develop a nasty habit: trading in a tight range for hours, till everyone is unnerved, and then move quickly. Today it was the other way round.

Depending upon the overnight development I think we will open tomorrow around today's close/PoC. Maybe an up move then because some more shorts will cover. Up to 144.20 probably. The ZEW report will then hopefully trigger a good move.

Below market I see 143.80 and 143.70/66 as possible support. A move down to 143.50 will close today's gap.

Above 144.20 I have no idea. If news are bad, market may find genuine buyers above this level.

For 10:40 CET an auction of Spanish 3-month bills is scheduled.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-18.03.2013-22.10.17.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-18.03.2013-22.08.14.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-18.03.2013-22.28.44.png  
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  #232 (permalink)
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PMA for March 20

Still not overcome the top of the medium term range. Volume still in the lower part of the profile. Both reactive sellers and buyers again. Zones are a bit arbitrary and I do not want to use Fibs. Still, I prefer balancing tomorrow.

SUPPORT
143.75
143.96

RESISTANCE
144.39
144.58
144.77

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  #233 (permalink)
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During the morning, the Bund future contract explored several times prices near the gap and when such gap proved to act as a support, Buyers pushed prices higher and at 5 pm the market made its high. After 5.30 pm the future lost a little bit of altitude.

I was mistaken thinking that ZEW would give a trend indication. The move took place about half an hour after US opening.

Result of the day is a bullish engulfing, as can be seen on the daily graph, with more volume than yesterday and a new high of the year. POC is however rather low at at 144,17 and shape of the day is another d, as yesterday.

Tomorrow, there is a 10 years Bund auction and rates paid by the bidders will give an indication on appetite for Bunds at these levels.

I do not see any resistance and as far as support are concerned, 144.37 is a first one and below and much stronger the upper range of the gap left opened.

As long as such gap is left opened, the market is protected from a big drop.

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  #234 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-19

Well above average range and volume - by 50% each. An up day. PoC (144.21) and VA are up too.

Market rose almost right from the open till its HoD (144.82) at 19:00 CET. From here it dropped a bit till the close. The rise included some volatile moves: one at 10:00 and a strong pullback from 11:30 CET till 13:30 CET. The news about the (negative) vote in the Cyprus parliament seems to have caused the rise to new yearly highs.

Stock markets reacted by dropping, not very strong, and making inside days. So they could not really make up their "mind". Euro continued its decline.

The 5-day volume profile charts shows that the PoC of the last profile did not change much, just a few ticks.

No levels of Resistance

Six levels of Support
• 143.33
• 143.12 (PoC)
• 142.76
• 141.66
• 141.00
• 140.95.

The daily chart shows a continuation of the latest up move.

The daily volume profile has a b-shape again. Though there is a peak around 144.68 in the upper end of the range but the PoC (144.21) lies in the lower end of the range.

Tomorrow the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 CET (13:00 EST) and there will be a press conference half an hour later.

Most likely the day will be ruled by the development in Cyprus again: I don't know whether there will be new negotiations or any other measures be taken by the Cyprus government.

The last spike in the day - from about 144.75 to 144.82 - was made late in the day and the VP looks pretty thin up there. Some shorts capitulating? Nevertheless, the chart pattern suggests another up move to make a double top/ new high.

But the market may just as well drop right from the open tomorrow - 144.50/.46 (VAH) looks like a nice target.

The political development will have to be monitored closely.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-19.03.2013-22.08.47.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-19.03.2013-22.07.44.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-19.03.2013-22.11.42.png  
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  #235 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-20

Above average volume but average range. A down day. But the PoC (144.36) is up and the highest of the last three days. VA overlaps that of yesterday, VAH is higher.

Market dropped almost right from the open till its LoD (143.95) at 13:30 CET. The down move was accelerated by some rumours about the Cyprus crisis at 13:00 CET. A pullback of about 50% of the range followed.

Stock markets are up, especially ESTX. EUR recovered a bit too.

The FOMC meeting caused only a small blip in the markets.

In the 5-day volume profile charts the PoC of the last profile rose.

No levels of Resistance

Six levels of Support
• 144.04 (PoC)
• 143.30
• 142.76
• 141.66
• 141.00
• 140.66.


The daily chart shows a strange picture: the last three bars seem to be hanging in empty space.

The daily volume profile shows buying below the VAL.

The situation in Cyprus is not resolved and a bankruptcy of Cyprus is just around the corner. The markets either shrug off this alternative or trust upon a last minute solution.

The reaction of the markets today shows that they are nervous and will react to rumors.

There are some reports scheduled for tomorrow. There will also be auctions of Spanish 2-Yr, 5-Yr and 10-Yr Notes. I do not know the time. At 11:00 CET there will an auction of French 2-Yr and 5-Yr Notes.

The market today feels like the longs from Monday and Tuesday sold their positions. That may explain why we saw strong buying below 144.16 (VAL).

The chart pattern looks like the market wants to drop further: once below Monday's low (143.87) it could decide to drop back into the gap left on Monday morning. The solid buying today below 144.16 speaks against this scenario.

I have no good idea for tomorrow.The levels to watch could be 144.30/40 and 143.97:
A rise above 144.30 would make things a bit difficult: looks like a nice place to short, but market could also rise above 144.40 - where the afternoon rise stopped today - and trigger another up swing.

It has to be seen whether an initial drop to 143.97 will result in buying - like today - or trigger a down move.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-20.03.2013-22.10.37.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-20.03.2013-22.09.41.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-20.03.2013-22.48.09.png  
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  #236 (permalink)
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Market opened near yesterday's 10 pm closing and went down all morning until it reached almost the upper hedge of the gap (143.95 LoD and upper hedge at 143.88) where some reactive Buyers entered into the market.

5.30 pm fixing (144.17) is not very different from 10 pm closing (144.13).
POC at 144.19 is same from tuesday level (143.18) with however most of the volume at 144.35 (to be compared with yesterday most volume made at 144.18). Result of the day is a bearish engulfing with however less volume than yesterday.

The 10 years auction showed some appetite for Bunds with a ratio bid/cover at 1.6 to be compared to 1.2 last time and rates 0.3% lower.

If you look at the last three days, you see some sort of trading range 143.90 - 144.70 wich makes fast stochastics easing, opening the way for a further market rise.
Actually, as long as the gap stands, market is protected from a violent drop and we saw today that there are buyers in the 143.90/144.00 area.

As can be seen on the UT 4H graph, MA 23 shall be in support at about 144 tomorrow.
Below such support, we have 143.50 and then 143.10 level.
144.70-80 is an obvious resistance and if overcomed, target is 80 ticks higher.

On top of the Cyprus issue, many statistics tomorrow may bring some volatility.

I will scalp within the 143.90 - 144.70 range and go for swing if/when market exit from such range.

Have a nice evening.

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  #237 (permalink)
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PMA for March 21

If we regard the gap as minus development, I can see a pretty neat balance. Only if we get below 143,66 I would consider the market going back to previous value. Currently it seems it found a new value where it may rest for a bit. However, the situation around may change the views of those trading it quickly.

SUPPORT and RESISTANCE remain unchaged from previous day.

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  #238 (permalink)
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PMA for March 22

We keep balancing in the newly formed range going from top to bottom and vice versa. Value areas hardly move, most volume is till seen in the lower part of the profile. The balance near today's high may suggests an effort to go upwards to the high of the range. We will see tomorrow.

Zones still remain unchanged.

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  #239 (permalink)
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Trendless day with reactive Buyers and Sellers at both ends of a range very similar to the one of yesterday. Value also almost the same as well. POC at 144.24 a bit higher than yesterday. A day for scalpers.

Volume profile of the day shows two nodes, one at POC and the other one near closing (144.56) with a valley in between.

As can be seen on the 4H graph, MA 23 is on support

Again, as long as the gap holds, market is protected from a drop and buying above the gap was again today a winning strategy.

Only major data released tomorrow is the IFO but as the market seems focused only on Cyprus issue, I am not sure such figure will bring some volatility.

Same supports and resistance outside the 143.90 - 144.70 range than yesterday.

If there are no new developments on the Cyprus issue, we could very well see a whole week in the same 143.90 - 144.70 range.

Would a solution implemented this week-end, it could create an island reversal, with a gap down monday morning, which would mark a medium term high. Only an hypothesis at this stage......

Have a nice evening.

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  #240 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-21


Average volume and average range. An up day. PoC (144.55) is up and the highest of the last four days. VA is very wide and overlaps that of yesterday, VAH is higher.

Market made some nasty swings after the open to make its LoD (144.04) at 10:30 CET. From here it rose to its HoD (144.66) at 15:00 CET. That high was rejected quickly and the market zig-zagged around till the close.

Stock markets are down, almost 1%. Though the economical reports for the USA have been positive.

In the 5-day volume profile charts the PoC of the last profile has risen again.

Six levels of Support
• 144.22 (PoC)
• 143.33
• 143.16
• 143.07
• 141.00
• 140.95.

The daily chart shows that the last four days alternately are up or down and the market moves in a 100 tick range.

Again the daily volume profile shows buying below the VAL.

For tomorrow there is only the German ifo report scheduled at 10:00 CET. For the USA there are no reports scheduled.

The continuing Cyprus crisis may be cause for some rumors.

The daily volume profile shows a two-peak distribution: one around the PoC of 144.55, the other around the VAL (144.23).

I have a slightly positive bias for tomorrow. Markets should open around today's PoC and then move up. 144.75 looks like a nice target and likely will cause a pullback. Market may initially drop to 144.46/.48, that is still positive.

A drop below 144.38/.40 will make me careful. A slow drop on low volume may still be positive.

A gap up at open on high volume will change my positive bias and have me look for a short position.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.03.2013-22.09.31.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.03.2013-22.08.52.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-21.03.2013-22.16.26.png  
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