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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #221 (permalink)
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Bank runs in Cyprus, tax levy on deposits

There are some reports on bank runs in Cyprus after the "one time" and "historic" deposit cut has occurred.

Any thoughts on what could happen on Monday with FGBL?

Could this be some kind of a watershed event for this spring? Stocks are basically ATH, VIX almost ATL and now this happens.

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  #222 (permalink)
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WEEKLY REVIEW

On the weekly graph, we can see that week candle is retracing about 61,8% of the previous one, with however a much smaller volume than last weeks average. POC of the week is at 143,07, to be compared to 142,71 the week before.

High of the week is 143,54, to be compared to the week before (143,91) and the previous week (143,75) which is not far from making a triple top. Moreover, VAL of the week is at 142,75 while VAH is at 143,25, which makes friday's afternoon rise from 143,20 to 143,54 a bit fragile.

Pivot point for next week is 143,16. If prices are going lower than such level it will be a clear warning that Bund market is due for consolidation.

Alternatively, a daily closing above 143,91 could indicate that the triple top is overcome, opening the way for a hefty rise.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-capture-d-ecran-2013-03-17-16.05.22.png  
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  #223 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-11 - 2013-03-15


Friday was an up day, average volume and average range. Poc (143.43) and VA shifted up. A double distribution day. After the market spanned a range of 22 ticks in the first 90 minutes it stayed within this range during the next 4 hours. The 13:30 CET release of the US CPI report pushed the market up. The HoD was made late in the day at 19:30.

The weekly chart shows an inside week on declining volume.

The 5-day volume profiles chart (today = weekly profiles) has run out of resistance levels. PoC is 143.07.

No levels of Resistance
(143.66, 143.79)

Four levels of Support

• 143.32
• 143.15
• 143.07 (PoC)
• 140.95
• 140.69
• 140.64.


The daily chart shows that the latest up trend is still ok, but the overlapping days show that the market is struggling to move up.

The daily volume profile shows 143.66 as next unbroken PoC.

Stock market show a mixed picture but most US- and European markets are up.

Next week economical reports are rare. Most prominent is the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

For Germany the ZEW report scheduled on Tuesday will be important.

I have no idea what implications the Cyprus bailout will have.

I have two scenarios for tomorrow: an open around or above 143.50, maybe a small move up and then a down swing. A fast up move on high volume will nullify this scenario.
Second one is an open below Friday's PoC (143.43), drift down on normal/low volume to below 143.30 and then up, maybe up to 143.80.

Most unpleasant would be a repetition of last Monday or Friday: a low range, low volume day that starts to move late in the (trading) day.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.03.2013-14.03.05.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.03.2013-14.08.14.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.03.2013-14.29.20.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.03.2013-14.55.59.png  
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  #224 (permalink)
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Friaday early morning, the market explored the downside, found some reactive buyers at the well known level of143, rose to thursday' high (143.23) and then traded sideways waiting for the US opening and the closing US march future contracts to rise 30 ticks in half an hour. Some ground was lost during night session.

Volumes are concentrated around 143.42 and 143.12, the POC being at 143.16.

It is worth noting that POC of the day is not far from thursday's (143.14) and wednesday's (143.12) : the upward momentum seems exhausted.

The 144.40 target of the downard broadening from which the Bund contract exited on march 13th is still valid and will remain so as long as medium average 23 on 4H basis is below prices, as can be seen on the attached graph.

As there are no important figures released monday, I am expecting a quiet day tomorrow.

Friday's high is an obvious resistance, above lies 143.93. As far as supports are concerned, the 143.37 level is a first weak one and then our old friend 143.00/10 where MA 23 and 44 UT 4H will be tomorrow.

I wil not be suprised if the valley between friday's two nodes (143.42 and 143.12) is visited tomorrow in a trendless day where same price might be seen several times.

For curiosity, I am adding a graph on an odd time frame (8H = three candles per day : 7 to 9 am, then 9 am to 5 pm and finally 5 pm to 10 pm ).
Where we can see prices climbing along cloud upper edge and a doji on top : will prices will go down on the other side of the hill down to 143 ?

I do not know, what is certain is that Bund future contract is in upward channel easy to see on ut 1H. Exiting from such channel by below and going behind Pivot point of the week (143.16) will be a signal that the upward trend is over.

Have a nice sunday evening, fit for fight for next week.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-8h.jpg  
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PMA for March 18

For now, we reached a middleterm timeframe VAH and we balanced below it a bit. Thinnish area above so I suppose the first reaction would be rejection and downward move. However, we will see tomorrow .

SUPPORT
143.25
143.08
142.95
142.79

RESISTANCE
143.75
143.50-52

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  #226 (permalink)
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Update for 2013-03-18

At the time of writing this Asian markets are down about 2%, EURUSD is down more than 1%, ZN is up about 47 ticks and ES down more than 20 points.

This (failed?) Cyprus bailout doesn't go down well with the markets.

So it is going to be a volatile session.

I expect a large gap up in bunds on high volume, not sure whether this gap will be closed in this session.

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  #227 (permalink)
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Fully agree with FGBL07 post. Bund future will likely open out of last week range. The gap may not be closed today.
Triple top may be overcome, opening the way for an exit from the 138 - 144 range.

The 144.40 target of the downard broadening could be at reach thix week.

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144.40 target achieved.

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PMA for March 19

We gapped up, balancing at the end of the day just above previous middle-term range high. Both reactive sellers and buyers, not exactly a trend-day. Tomorrow we will either look for new balance or go back to previous balance.

SUPPORT
144.35
144.49
144.69

RESISTANCE
143.97
143.75
143.50

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  #230 (permalink)
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Bund future opened with a big gap up and went down to 143.96, which is to say 3 ticks over the highest level of the triple top (143.75 three weeks ago, 143.91 two weeks ago and 143.54 last week). On the afternoon, market drifted horizontally making its lowest beofre 5.30 pm at 143.90. After 5.30 pm market took some altitude to end some ticks higher than 144.

POC is at only 144.07 and most of today's volume is concentrated at such level, giving the day a d shape.

A gap remains opened with friday and such gap could be analyzed as a jump over the triple top level.

If such gap is closed tomorrow, I will see that as a negative signal for the Bund market : the triple top barrier holds. First support could be at 143.54 (last week high) and then our old friend 143.00/10 with weaker supports in between at 143.37 and 143.20

If it is left open, it will show market strength and a new medium term range could take place where the upper end of the gap would be the lower end of the range.

Tomorrow the ZEW will give a clear orientation to the market and on the afternoon a US figure may bring some volatility as well.

If somebody knows whether some bond auctions from Italy or Spain are scheduled, I would be pleased to hear.

Have a nice evening.

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