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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #211 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-12

Average volume and range. An up day. PoC (143.07) is higher than those of the last three days. VA sits on top of yesterday's but is contained in last Thursday's.

Market opened above yesterday's close and after closing that little gap rose continuously to its HoD (143.21) at 16:00. Then it drifted down a bit till the close. The up move was supported by the release of negative UK data at 10:30.

Stock markets dropped today though by small amounts only.

The levels in the 5-day volume profile chart have shifted a bit.

One level of Resistance
• 143.32.

Four levels of Support
• 142.76 (PoC)
• 141.65
• 141.00
• 140.96
• 140.03.

The daily chart is inconclusive: The up trend which started 2013-01-30 is still ok, the down move which started last Monday corrected the flag-pole like up move from 2013-02-25. Any move from here will look "logical".

The daily volume profile shows that the area around today's PoC filled the thin area in last Thursday's volume profile.

For tomorrow there are several reports scheduled: at 11:00 CET (EU Industrial Production), at 13:30 CET (US Retail Sales) and 15:00 CET (US Business Inventories).

Intraday behavior often tends to repeat. So I'll look tomorrow for an open above 142.97, a drift down to maybe 142.87/.76 and then an up move. Above 143.15 will be difficult, a lot of sellers seem to enter the market here. But with support from stock markets that should be possible. Maybe up to 143.50.

If stock markets resume to move up, a drop to 142.60 and below is likely.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-12.03.2013-22.05.11.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-12.03.2013-22.04.28.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-12.03.2013-22.09.49.png  
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PMA for March 13

Close back near POC, looks a bit like P. We are trying to find value. We may either complete the balancing phase by going upwards to approx. 143.40, or proove a false breakout of the channel and fall back downwards. In any case I do not expect any trending (but who knows)

SUPPORT (could turn into RES)
142.53
142.95
143.03

RESISTANCE
143.59
143.42
143.34

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  #213 (permalink)
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On the 4H graph, I see the Bund future contract drawing a broadening downard structure. MA 44 is above prices and 1 to 5 pm candle is a doji, reflecting reactive sellers that appeared at resistance level of 143.10 about.

Closing is a shade below at 143.02.

Most of volume of the day has been done in the 143.00 / 10 range, which is one of the two nodes of the 2 days profile (the other one being at 142.70/80). The session has therefore a p shape. Another major node is at 142.40 and below at 142.10.

Fast stochastics at top and a flatening MA 44 make me think that the oblique resistance shall be difficult to overcome, unless there is a negative newsflow tomorrow (I mean negative for the stocks).

As long as prices remain below MA 44, the more likely is a down move tomorrow with the abovementionned nodes acting as supports.

If Bund future contract breaks the resistance, next levels are 143.40 and then 143.93.

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PMA for March 14

We are building value, reactive sellers on high, reactive buyers on the low. We will probably spend time somewhere between 142.63 and 143.24 tomorrow.

SUPPORT
142.40
142.56
142.64
142.95 (?)

RESISTANCE
143.24
143.38
143.51
143.75

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  #215 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-13

Average volume and below average range. An up day though the close is nearer to the low than to the high. PoC (143.12) and VA are up.

Market dipped down in the first 30 minutes but then rose till its HoD (143.37) at 12:30 CET. The results of the Italian Bond auction at 11:00 CET helped to push up the market. The Retail Sales report at 13:30 CET (= 08:30 EST) caused a sharp drop but the market reversed and traced back the drop to form a double top. From here the market drifted down till another pop up caused by the US 10-Yr Notes auction at 18:00 CET.

Stock markets are a bit mixed but mostly ended the day positive.

The 5-day volume profile does not show much change. The (5-day) PoC did not change from yesterday.

One level of Resistance
• 143.32.

Four levels of Support
• 142.76 (PoC)
• 141.65
• 141.00
• 140.66 2x.

In the daily chart the little up swing from last Friday continues.

The daily volume profile shows buying below 143.08 (VAL) and selling above 143.29 the VAH.

Again there are several reports scheduled for tomorrow. US reports at 13:30 CET (=08:30 EST).

Feels like the market is preparing for an outbreak - the question is up or down?

Today's intraday chart looks similar to Monday's. I expect the market to open around 143.05 and then drop to 142.97/.95. That should trigger enough buying for another push up. If the market moves up to 143.30 a second attempt to break above 143.50 may follow. A straight move up from the open will make me cautious.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-13.03.2013-22.14.33.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-13.03.2013-22.14.00.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-13.03.2013-22.50.31.png  
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With good volume, the Bund future contract overcame in the morning the oblique resistance of the downard broadening, and passed the 143.10 resistance. Reactive sellers appeared at 143.30/35 and after making a double top at 143.37, the market retreated and closed at 143.08, making a throwback on the oblique resistance as can be seen on the 4h graph. POC is at 143.12, higher than yesterday with most of the volume at such level and above.

Result of the day is a green candle but with a long high shadow with prices ending at ut 4H medium average 44.

If the former oblique resistance becomes a support, target of the downard broadening is a hefty 144.40. Such structure could be seen as the continuation of the rise since the low of februaray 20th (140.40) On the way of such target there are the 143.37 (high of today) and 143.94 (high of march 4th).

If prices go back below the oblique, 142.70/80 shall act as support, as it is one of the two 5 days node, the other one being around today's closing level. Below the 142.27/37 area may act as support as well.

My feeling is that there is upward pressure on the Bund : prices are rising when stocks are weak and the Bund does not retreat much when stocks are rising.

I am expecting volatile markets for the end of the week, particularly friday with plenty of statistics and the Witches.

Take care.

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PMA for March 15

Nothing much to say. We are still building value and we will see tomorrow what reports will do to the market.
Zones from yesterday are still valid.

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  #218 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-14

Below average volume and below average range. An indecisive day, looks like a doji. PoC (143.03) and VA are down.

Market dropped right from the open to make its LoD (142.82) at 9:00 CET. From here it rose in a nice wave structure to its HoD (143.24) at 18:30. The up move was supported at 13:30 CET (=08:30 EST) by a higher than expected PPI, ignoring the positive Jobless Claims Report. Strangely at 18:00 CET the weaker than expected results of the 30-Yr Bond auction drove the market up. Looks like the market wanted to move up, no matter what happened.

Stock are finished the day positive, some indexes making new highs.

The 5-day volume profile essentially shows two large levels; above 143.10 and below 141.00.

Two levels of Resistance
• 143.32
• 143.15.

Four levels of Support
• 143.07 (PoC)
• 141.00
• 140.95
• 140.69.


The daily volume profile shows selling above 143.13 (VAH). The VAL is almost identical with the LoD.

Again there are several reports scheduled for tomorrow. US Consumer Sentiment at 14:55 CET (= 09:55 EST) probably the most influential.

Market did not tip its hand today.

I have a bias for long positions tomorrow. I expect the market to open around 143.10 and maybe drop a few ticks. Then it should move up. 143.25 may offer some resistance.

If the market opens near today's high I'll be cautious.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.03.2013-22.09.28.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.03.2013-22.08.27.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-14.03.2013-22.28.52.png  
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  #219 (permalink)
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A couple of things to add to the reports already posted.

As can be seen on the daily graph, candle of the day is almost a doji. Its location does not tell much to me. Associated with the previous one, it seems to indicate that the rise from 142.27 came to a stop. Actually POC of today and of yesterday are rather close. The upward momentum is therefore weaker.

On the 4h graph, after trying to exit from the downard broadening, the Bund future contract is drifting horizontally in a range 142.80 - 143.20. MA 23 is in support while prices are closing upper than MA 44. The exit from such range shall give the next direction.

The 144.40 target is still valid as prices are above the oblique resistance of the broadening structure and it should remain valid as long as prices are above MA 23 (at 143.02 this evening). On the way to such target, still the 143.37 and then 143.94 levels.

On the down side, 142.82 proved to be a good support. If broken the drop could be fast to 142.40 area.

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  #220 (permalink)
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BOBL


Sometimes, the BOBL future contract is making better graphical structures than the BUND.

Here for instance, on the 4h graph, the exit from the broadening and the subsequent throwback, with the end of the lower shadow of the long legs doji ending on the MA 23 and the resistance oblique. Conservative target is here 126.20.

I see the BUND and BOBL moderately rising when stocks are rising . What will happen when stocks will decline ?

Good night.

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