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Monday candle is red with almost no shadows and forms with the previous candle a black cloud. Volume is important but the rollover between march and june shall make us suspicious on the actual net volume involved.
I do not have a clear view on what could happen today therefore I will wait for IB to develop and PMI figures to be released from 9.15 - 9.55 before opening positions.
As previously stated, 144.80/86 and aroud 145 shall behve as supports.
Below average volume and below average range. Range is a few ticks smaller than yesterday's. PoC (=145.17) is below yesterday's PoC. Same applies to the VA.
Market opened near yesterday's low, rose for 30 minutes and then started to drop till 10:30 CET. After that it traded sideways in a tight range till 15:30 CET. It dropped to its LoD (145.01) at 17:00 CET and then traded sideways till the close. All in all similar to yesterday's moves.
Though stock markets dropped into the close they show a remarkable rally. Dow made a new high. Reports have been positive for the stock market.
In the 5-day volume profile chart the PoC has slightly risen to 145.17. Next level down is 143.50.
Six levels of Support
• 145.17 (PoC)
• 143.50
• 142.80
• 142.50
• 141.88.
The daily chart shows that the market has to drop below 144.80 before this up trend may be in danger.
The daily volume profile looks similar to yesterday's.
I see two reports for tomorrow: ADP report at 14:15 CET (=08:15 EST) and Factory Orders at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST). Beige Book will be released at 20:00 CET (=14:00 EST), late for the European day.
I have a slight long bias for tomorrow. I would like to see an open below 145.11 and a drop on normal volume to below 145.00. Market should not drop below 144.95. Then I'll look for a long position. An open around 145.17 may be possible too, depends upon overnight moves on Globex. After this rally I think profit taking in the stock markets may take place.
But a continuation of the down swing could happen just as well.
I have switched to the M contract today, so levels have changed. Had to do it manually.
Average volume but well below average range. A down day, PoC (=143.11) and VA are down from previous days too. The down move has lost a bit of momentum since the net "gain" is small.
Market moved down after the first hour, up and down again to make its LoD of 143.01 around 14:00 (caused by the ADP report at 14:15 CET). That was one tick lower than the previous session low and from here market rose to its HoD of 143.37 at 16:30 CET. After that it drifted down till the close. Range bound trading at its best.
ESTX and DAX made nice gains today, but US markets show small range down moves by now. Euro trades below 1.30.
The 5-day volume profile shows one level of resistance now: 143.30, the PoC. But it remains to be seen whether it will stay like that.
One level of Resistance
• 143.30 (PoC)
Five levels of Support
• 141.65
• 141.02
• 140.62 2x
• 140.05.
The up trend in the daily chart is still ok, but the low of the 27th February is just a few ticks away.
The 60-minute chart shows a change in the intraday behavior of the bunds: The HoD was made late in the day, after the LoD.
The most important event tomorrow will be the ECB interest rate decision. There are some analyst who expect an interest rate cut. So the announcement of the decision itself at 13:45 CET (=07:45 EST) has to be monitored closely - unlike the last few meetings. The press conference starting at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) is likely to cause volatility.
If - very big if - ECB really cuts then this will cause some volatile moves, the very first reaction may not be up. I'll stay out of the market then. Too volatile: my quotes usually don't keep up with the market in such situations.
The H contract stops trading at 12:30 CET (=06:30 EST).
The morning is likely to be as today: range bound trading. Depending on over night moves on Globex the market should open a bit higher (or move there within the first 30 minutes) and then drop a bit.
Above average volume and well above average range. A down day; PoC (=142.82) and VA are lower than those of the previous days.
Market opened above yesterday's close, but started to move down immediately. It dropped during the first hour, moved sideways for two hours and then started to rise to its HoD (above Tuesday's VAH) of 143.45 at 12:30 CET. From here it started to drift down again. BoE and ECB interest rate decisions were no surprise (both unchanged). At the start of the ECB press conference the market dropped fast and on high volume till its LoD (142.64) at 16:30 CET. The rest of the day was spent climbing up a bit into the close.
Stock market show very small ranges; they seem to be waiting.
The 5-day volume profile now shows two levels of resistance and several support levels. But these are essentially two big levels 2 full points apart. That's about 0.25 bps.
Two levels of Resistance
• 143.32 (PoC)
• 143.15.
Four levels of Support
• 141.00
• 140.95
• 140.70
• 140.03.
The market just hovers above the high of the 25th of February, that wide range up day.
The daily volume profile shows three distinct peaks:
one around 143.33, one around 143.15 and one around the PoC.
Most important report for tomorrow is the NFP report scheduled at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST). The markets seem to expect a positive NFP number. I'm not sure that this will push up stock markets further: they have gone up a lot already. May be we will see a case of "Buy the rumor, sell the fact". A negative number will drive down stock markets.
The 60-minute chart looks like bunds want to make a second low below or at 142.64. 142.60 is the high of 25th February, so market might try to test this area. On the other hand the late up move was on high volume, that is high for this time of day.
I'm expecting a repetition of today's intraday moves: open maybe between 142.95 and today's PoC (=142.82), a down move on normal volume to below 142.60 and then up. A positive NFP will drive the bunds down.
The NFP report used to be a real market mover for the bunds, about 50 ticks, but the last few times it did not live up to expectations.
In the composite volume profile there is a thinly traded range between 142.60 and 141.93; looks like a nice "black hole".
On the 4H graph, I see the Bund future forming a head & shoulders with neck line at 143.
The 143 horizontal support was broken with volume during Mario Draghi conference.
As long as 143 hold as resistance on a 4H basis, target is 142.
We can also see on the graph that MA 23 was the top of second shoulder and that such medium average is now heading down. The 142 target is also MA 20 daily.
142.14 (top of january 24th) and 141.81 (upped hedge of the cloud) are also levels where some reaction may happen.
German industrial production at noon and 2.30 pm US statistics may bring some volatility.
