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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #181 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-27

Average volume, but well below average range. A down day, but PoC and VA are up. Made a new high of the year.

Market dropped after the open on low volume and then traded sideways till 11:00 CET when the results of the Italian Bonds auction were released. Market dropped to make a low and then rose above the range. It rose till 14:30 CET to make its HoD of 145.40. This almost closed the gap from the start of the year. From here market dropped to make its LoD of 144.80 just before the close, erasing all gains made during the day.

(European) Stock markets started to rally after 11:00 CET, Es rallied during its RTH too. Stock markets are on their way to claim back what they lost Monday/Tuesday. Fiscal Cliff seems not to exist? Maybe an End-Of-Month thing.

The 5-day volume profiles still show support only, resistance levels are far back.

No level of Resistance
(145.68, 145.08)

Six levels of Support
• 143.50 (PoC)
• 142.87 2x
• 142.50 2x
• 141.91.

Whether that gap is closed may be open to discussion: the low/close on 2012-12-28 was 145.42/145.52 today's high is 145.40.

The daily volume profile shows two nodes: one around its VAH of 145.22 and one around its PoC of 145.00.

There are quite a lot of reports due tomorrow, among them US GDP at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).

If stock markets continue to rally, bunds will drop further. 144.65 is the next unbroken PoC, below that 144.48 is beckoning. If it goes that low it may drop further into that area of thinly traded volume.

If markets rises 145.10 may offer first resistance. For a move above I think the cooperation of stock markets is needed.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.02.2013-22.05.41.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.02.2013-22.04.46.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.02.2013-22.08.55.png  
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  #182 (permalink)
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PMA for February 28

We are near the top of a long term balance started on 01/06/2012, the day also formed a balance, though there is a distinct LVN at 145.10. Market continued to retrace all the way down till the close and closed below value area. There may still be some down momentum tomorrow morning but we will see.

SUPPORT
144.90
144.81
144.42

RESISTANCE
145.29
145.54
145.88

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  #183 (permalink)
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PMA for March 1


We are balancing at the top of LTF range. Again, two distict nodes with thinish area around 145.01. Close very close to it . I will prefer shorting if we open above the currently forming value area and buying if we open below while closely watching for any sign of starting imbalance.

S/R zones remain as yesterday.

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  #184 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-28

Below average volume and well below average range. A doji, an inside day. Though the PoC (145.10) is up.

Market behaved in a similar fashion to yesterday: It started to drop right after the open to its LoD (= 144.81, same as yesterday) and then rose in several swings up to its HoD (= 145.23) at 14:30 CET. From here it zig-zagged into the close. Strongest decline happened at 17:00 CET (= 11:00 EST), release of the Kansas City report.

US stock markets made some gains during the day, but turned into the red after 14:30 EST. ESTX and DAX show small gains.

The 5-day volume profiles show little change except that the PoC (of the last profile) is 145.00 now.

No level of Resistance
(145.34)

Six levels of Support
• 145.00 (PoC)
• 142.94
• 142.84
• 142.80
• 142.56
• 141.88.

The daily chart is inconclusive: The steep up move which started last Thursday has come to a halt and it looks like the market may topple over and decline. Classical volume analysis suggests a continuation of the up move because the stop is on declining volume. I would have preferred to see a real down move today for this scenario.

The daily profile shows that the last two days stopped their down moves at Tuesday's VAH (=144.80). Today's up move found resistance at yesterday's VAH (=145.23).

The market is collecting steam, just don't know what direction it will take.

Tomorrow again a lot of economical reports is scheduled.

My preferred scenario for tomorrow: market drops below today's low on normal volume before stock/cash markets open and then starts to rally. Stock markets will have to drop for this. 145.55 looks like a first target.

If US futures drop seriously overnight then the market may move up immediately.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-28.02.2013-22.17.07.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-28.02.2013-22.16.02.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-28.02.2013-22.26.45.png  
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  #185 (permalink)
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Market opened within wednesday VAH, explored the downside to yesterday low (144.81 vs 144.82) giving a nice buying opportunity for at such level some reactive buyers pushed the market up to 145.23 and then the Bund future traded sideways to close near the opening. POC is about the same as yesterday (145.01 vs 145.04 wednesday).

Result of the day is almost a doji. Whether it is of summit or continuation is to be seen.

Two things are calling my attention :
- the Bund future prices stayed at a high level while the stock markets rose,
- bollinger bands on ut 1H are very close.

On the 4H graph, I see the Bund future forming a diamond.

Such structure could be the top of a move. Target is 143.40 if the exit is from below the diamond. 143.40 is a minor node in the 5days profile and not too far from the 143.00/20 support area.

But diamonds could also be a continuation structure. Target is 146.80 if the exit from the diamond is from above and in such case, the diamond would be at mid distance between the 143.00/20 support area and the target.

On the daily graph, we can see that there are 280 ticks between january 30th low (141.25) and the middle of the support area (144.10) and also about 280 ticks between such level (144.10) and the target (146.80)

Is not that funny ?

On the 5 days profile there is a big node around 145 and almost no exchanges between 144.60 and 143.60.
I do not know whether the Bund future contract will go up or down but I am convinced that it will be a violent, huge and fast move.

Only with fiscal cliff due tomorrow, not to mention the statistics to be released there are plenty of reasons to move tomorrow.

Fasten seat belts.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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  #186 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-25 - 2013-03-01

Friday was an up day. Slightly below average volume but average range. PoC is 145.52, VA is higher than those of the preceding days. The daily volume profile shows a p-shaped distribution. The gap from start of the year is now closed by any definition.

The weekly chart shows a wide range up week on rising volume. The 5-day (today = weekly) volume profiles show support levels only. The last week has a p-shape too.

No level of Resistance

Six levels of Support
• 145.00 (PoC)
• 142.80
• 142.54
• 142.50 2x
• 141.88.

The daily chart shows that there is not much room left to the up side: 146.17 is the high of 2012, made in December. This is a back-adjusted contract, in the non-adjusted contract the high of 2012 is 146.89, made in June.

There are not many reports scheduled for next week: most prominent is the NFP report on Friday. For European traders the ECB meeting on Thursday is important. Some analysts expect an interest rate cut.

In view of the Fiscal Cliff the stock markets behaved strange. They remained pretty strong. It remains to be seen whether this remains so now that the Sequestration is in place. The effects will unfold over the next weeks and maybe it takes this time to really see the consequences.

There are no reports scheduled for Monday and I think that the markets will trade quietly till the US markets open to see their reaction. Strong overnight moves on Globex may change this.

To the down side 145.30 looks like a level where the market may drop to. Next level down is 144.80. To the up side there is the 145.90 level. Beyond that? I don't know.

Edit: forgot one thing to add; The March contract will expire on Thursday, the 7th. There will be a lot of rollover trades/block trades: high volume trades that don't move the market.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-03.03.2013-11.35.54.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-03.03.2013-11.39.03.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-03.03.2013-12.45.53.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-03.03.2013-12.49.38.png  

Last edited by FGBL07; March 3rd, 2013 at 01:21 PM. Reason: Rollover
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  #187 (permalink)
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WEEKLY REVIEW

Candle of the week is a green one, with almost a naked head and important volume. The bund future contract is so close from 2012 high (146.28) that I think such level will be reached and tested within this coming week.

Afterwards, either the market has fuel to go higher or it makes a triple top with the two high points of 2012 (week beginning july 23rd and dicember 10th) and the rejection move could be substantial.

Friday, the session begun by a down move down to 144.86, six ticks from thursday low where reactive buyers brung the market back to IB top. The exit from the diamond by above, as can be seen on the 4H graph, rocketed the market to 145.64, almost reaching the first target given by such structure.

Final target, by the rule of the mast, is 146.80 but as said before 146.28 seems a more reasonable figure.

I see december 28th top (145.84) and december10 top (146.19) as possible resistance points while a big support shall be found in 145.00/10 area where there is a big node on the 5 days profile. 144.80/86 is another interesting level (low of the three previous trading days). Much below there is the upper hedge of the cloud at 143.73

I am prepared for a boring day tomorrow and therefore it will probably be a hectic day....

Have a nice sunday evening.

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  #188 (permalink)
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hi all,

this week is rollover day on thursday. the june contract qutoes about ~ 2 Points lower than the march contract. So am i right that we see a down gap on the nonbackadjusted chart?

good trades

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  #189 (permalink)
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hi all,

this week is rollover day on thursday. ..

good trades

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  #190 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-03-04


Well below average volume and average range. A down day. PoC (=145.55) is about the same as Friday's (=145.52) and the VA is contained within Friday's. The official volume reported on the Eurex home page is much higher, almost double as high. Looks like they count all calendar trades twice.

Market opened with an up gap, quickly rose to its HoD (=145.80) and traded in a tight range for the first 30 minutes. Then it started to drop till its LoD of 154.35 at 15:30. A nice up move followed for about an hour and then the market drifted down till the close.

Stock markets opened gap down, but then steadily rose throughout the day to end in the green.

There is not much change in the 5-day volume profiles, PoC is unchanged.
No level of Resistance

Six levels of Support
• 145.00 (PoC)
• 143.50
• 142.85
• 142.50 2x
• 141.88.

The daily chart shows a down day on declining volume. The pattern indicates a continuation of the up move, but then stock markets should drop.

The daily volume profile shows a balanced profile.

The latest swing low of last Friday - 145.35 - offered support today. Below this level 145.21 - 145.23 may offer support too. 145.00 should be a major level. Above today's prices I still see 145.90 as resistance (attractor?)

For tomorrow there only a few reports scheduled, 10:00 and 11:00 CET and US ISM Non-Mfg at 16:00 CET. I do not expect them to have much influence. Today there was a rumor on Twitter that Italy will be downgraded, but till now I don't see any news re this.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-04.03.2013-22.07.17.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-04.03.2013-22.06.35.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-04.03.2013-22.09.36.png  
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