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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #141 (permalink)
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PMA for February 15

We are building a range around a very distinct POC at 142.49-.56. An up day with rejection at the lows near yesterday single prints. If we stay above POC, we may travel up to the high of the range (VA). Remember, support turns into resistance and vice versa.

SUPPORT
142.41
142.07
141.85

RESISTANCE
142.79
142.92
143.12

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  #142 (permalink)
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As forecasted yesterday evening (you can't always be mistaken, even a damaged clock is right twice per day) the Bund took support on the green oblique and rose . It actually begun down, found no further Seller's interest at yesterday low (low of today is 141.87 vs 141.85 wednesday) and then went up till yesterday's high (142.66 vs 142.68 today).

As can be seen on the graph, with pink glasses you can see the Bund in an upward channel while with dark ones the future contract is still in the downard channel.

There is room for the uncertainty to remain tomorrow as the Bund may very well stay friday in the the triangle formed by the two obliques.

I think however that the Bund may end exiting up : today volume (up day) is bigger than yesterday (down day) and last week was a bullish engulfing with good volume.

Otherwise nothing to add to FGBL07 comments on POC and support/resistance points.

Gutte Nacht.

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  #143 (permalink)
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WEEK REVIEW


Last week candle is a hung and forms with the previous candle a summit in pliers. It is not a positive sign for the Bund market. If 143.12 level is not overcome, the market will go down.

As can be seen on the daily graph and as I suspected thursday evening, the market decided not to decide between the downard channel and the upward one and stayed in the triangle formed by the two obliques.

The market opened outside the previous day range, with some Buyers making a buying tail of about 10 ticks, made a double top at 143.01, a shade below tuesday top (143.03) where some reactive Sellers sent it back to the open level and then pushed it lower to 142.29 where some reactive buyers brung it back very close to the open level .
POC is at 142.85 and most of the volumes was made at such level, giving the day a p shape.

A doji with long legs is therefore the result of the day, showing market uncertainty. Placed where is it, it could be either a doji of continuation, targetting the resistance oblique of the rising channel, around 143.30/40 and also the lower hedge of the Ichimoku cloud or a summit doji with a first target being the support oblique of the rising channel, around 142.00.

If 143.12 is passed with volume, the rise to 143.40 will be very fast and such target may be overshooted.

On the 4h graph, we can see that the Bund future is within a rising square triangle, with the support oblique (the one of the rising channel visible on the daily graph) touched 4 times and the horizontal resistance 5 times. As the entrance in the triangle was made from above, I am expecting the exit to be by the bottom, with a target in the case the support oblique is broken of 140.20, about the level of the support oblique of the downard channel visible on the daily graph.

As a general comment, I feel the Bund market very fragile would the stock market stabilize. Last week for instance, Bund market only rose when stock markets were heaviliy sold. I only saw reactive buyers while the sellers were more agressive. If I risk myself in the fundamental analysis, the panic mode that made bund market going so high seems over and for investors looking for fixed income, corporate bonds or sovereign bonds issued by other countries than Germany look more interesting than Bunds.

In a nutshell my strategy for the first half of the week :
above 143.12 I buy with 143.40 as target where a reverse may happen,
below 142.00 about I sell with a target of 180 ticks,
in between I scalp the trading range in the triangle.

Have a nice sunday.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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  #144 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
What do you mean by overnight session? The time from cash market close 17:30 CET till future market close 22:00 CET?

Yes, that one. It can hint at early context, although these days its very small and range-bound due to most of the interesting news flow occurring during EU market hours.

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  #145 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-11 - 2013-02-15

In the weekly chart the market made an inside week, lower range and volume than the week before. The chart pattern is inconclusive: there is a down move on rising volume since the start of the year. The last two weeks volume declined, but only by a small amount. Though the last week is down, it could still signal an impending up move.

The daily chart is also inconclusive: First three days of the week saw a down move on rising volume, Thursday's up move was on even higher volume. On Friday volume dropped. Can be sign of a break in the up move or a sign of exhaustion.

The 5-day volume profiles (coinciding with weekly profiles on the weekend) show 142.50 as PoC again. If we view 142.54 as identical then we see this level for the third time now within 4 weeks.

143.40 is the next resistance level beyond 142.87 (90). Just dropped out of view.
One level of Resistance
• 142.87.
Four levels of Support
• 142.54
• 142.50 (2x) (PoC)
• 141.88.

On Friday the market opened up (short covering? Buyers in a rush?) but after the buying was over, market dropped to about the middle of the valley formed by Wednesday's and Thursday's volume nodes. Then buyers stepped in again and drove the market up into the close.

The last two days are up days: though Friday is a kind of doji, PoC and VA are up. But it did not break above the February high of 143.11.

The composite profile since the up swing which started 2013-01-30 has not changed (see post #140 of this thread). There are three distinct nodes at 142.86, 142.50 and 142.00

US Markets are closed on Monday due to Presidents' day. So there will not be much guidance from these markets. Usually volume drops to about 50% of the average on such days. Range in the last two years was still decent with 50 - 60 ticks. But there were also years when range dropped to just above 20 ticks.

If there are no extraordinary events, trading will be quiet tomorrow and get very quiet in the afternoon.

The market is struggling to move beyond 143.10. I'm not sure if a break of that level will led to an accelerated up move. On the down side, any move below 142.00 should initiate another down swing.

Stock markets look struggling, but at least the US markets could continue to move up. The Fiscal Cliff will rear its head soon again.

On Tuesday the ZEW report released at 11:00 CET (=05:00 EST) will be important.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.02.2013-14.00.14.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.02.2013-14.23.14.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.02.2013-14.04.10.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-17.02.2013-15.43.09.png  
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  #146 (permalink)
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The market has been a difficult read for me lately as well, not helped by catching the flu last week.

The balance area marked from the 4th Feb was confirmed as a good move down on Wednesday was met by a strong counter-reaction on the Thursday. I was unsure if price would continue down to 141.30 before seeing buying, but 141.88 acted as resistance - for now.

It was an inside day however, and Fridays action was weak and listless to the upside. Still no real excess at the top, but on a day basis the candle looks weaker and was unable to reach the previous highs at 143.11 so perhaps sellers have their "good" high and feel confident to sell.

Likely to see a stop run above 143.11 if price travels higher as I suspect many longs would exit here, but the area above is a CHVN and very dense.

The balance MC is strange, with a very pronounced POC. I am not entirely clear on what this may represent. It definitely appears to be a magnet at the moment, although I prefer shorts to longs given the failure on the high end on Friday.

My chart shows balance areas as I see them - the market moves vertically, then spends time balancing around that vertical move until the next catalyst causes another one. Steidlmayer calls this "market time", rather than a fixed period external to the market.

Overnight action on Friday was interesting, with the push downwards almost completely retraced. I will be watching the test of the overnight high at 142.67 for rejection.

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  #147 (permalink)
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PMA for February 18

Slowly grinding day on Friday before a run of stops creating vacuum with not much shorting follow-through.
There is a thinish area between 142.64 and 142.50 so we migh fill that in. I prefer short, however if we remain above the current POC, we might fight the way upward again (but maybe not today due to US public hols).

SUPPORT:
142.36
142.22
142.08

RESISTANCE:
142.79
143.02
143.11

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  #148 (permalink)
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Thanks for the Thread

My first post here, I've been lurking for some time, but today was a slow enough day to register.

Anyway, want to thank FGBL07, MARS, hadamkov, corbeste... for your input. I've got some good food for thought and insights about various pivot points. So, keep up the good work, I guess there are a lot of people reading but not posting here. Thanks.

Just my 2 cents regarding markets - I think H1 2013 could be a replay of H1 2012 i.e. enthusiastic start for the year will end up so that stocks will be staring at the abyss by summer.

ESTX50 and Bund have been going sideways for the past 2 weeks and now the path is narrowing. For bund it's 142/143.10 and ESTX50 (index) 2590/2670. A breakout will soon emerge for both and I'm inclined to think that bund will go up and stocks down (sequester or whatever reason...).

It looks to me that ESTX50 has a horizontal support @2590 and a declining resistance coming down from 2750. Today ESTX50 made a second bottom close to 2590 and as the old saying goes "triple bottoms are ohh, so rare". Whereas bund has a horizontal resistance at 143.10 and maybe a rising support.

Anyway, good trading for everyone and be prepared.


Last edited by nolla; February 18th, 2013 at 01:36 PM.
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  #149 (permalink)
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Sun was shining so I left my computer late morning and rode my bicycle in the Versalles palace park.

Therefore I will not comment the session today only to say that volume was very low and that not surprinsingly, with no news flow and the US markets closed, the Bund market stayed in the triangle defined by the two obliques of the two channels that can be seen on the daily graph.

I however attach a graph you may find interesting : while MACD last peak is higher than the previous one, on the Bund market last peak is lower than the previous one, what is called in french "divergence baissière cachée" that I could translate roughly by "hidden bearish discrepency", which does confirm the bearish trend of the Bund market.

Therefore, the upward channel may very well be a flag and the downtrend resume very soon as prices are testing the resistance oblique of the downard channel.

Have a nice evening.

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  #150 (permalink)
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PMA for February 19


Quiet day with little volume. We are building a short-term balance (10-day). Either we get back up to the VAH or back down to VAL.

SUPPORT
142.39
142.21
142.14

RESISTANCE
142.91
142.95
143.11

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