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Above average volume and range. A down day. Daily PoC is 142.02 well below yesterday's.
Half an hour after the open the market started to drop till 13:30 CET with only one correction at 11:00 CET. LoD was made at 15:00 CET and then a nice up/down zig-zag into the close followed.
The 5-day volume profile shows 142.86 as PoC.
Four levels of Resistance
• 142.50
• 142.86(2x)
• 143.30.
One level of Support
• 141.90.
Looking at an hourly chart shows that the up trend from 2013-01-30 is broken.
The daily volume profile shows a b-profile. There is still an untouched PoC of 141.83, today's down move stopped just one tick above it. Next level down is 140.73.
It is a wide range down day, but no sell-off day. For such a day volume should be higher and range above 100 ticks.
Stock markets look struggling, during RTH ES dropped while ESTX and DAX finished in the green. I see only two reports for tomorrow: The Jobless Report for the US-Market and EU GDP at 11:00 CET.
This down move does not look finished. It does not have to continue tomorrow and it will depend upon how stock markets continue.
An up move tomorrow to the VAH at 142.25 will have me look for a short position. If market drops immediately below 141.83, then I will look at volume: high volume probably implies a continuation of the down move. Low volume an up correction.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
We are on the edge of a value area forming after a recent down move. We are building middle-term value lower. We may get down to the low of the range or balance below 142,45.
LOL, I never did that. What did you watch when that happened.......?
Well, posting trades in real-time or after the fact is usually done in a journal. That's what the Journal Section of this board is good for. Your readers will expect some explanation of methodology used and some more detail.
Alternatively post your trades real-time on Twitter. There some Bundtraders doing so.
So keep valid the (my) idea of the short till 141.45/50 for that I already posted the chart.
I will be back soon with some different news. With chart...of course!!!
Above average volume and range. An up day, but an inside day. PoC (142.50) is in the upper part of the range.
Market traded in a small range till the stock market opened. After that dropped to its LoD (141.88) at around 10:00 CET and then started to rise. The negative EU GDP growth report for the last quarter of 2012 released at 11:00 CET sent the stock markets down while Bunds rose correspondingly. It moved through the resistance level of 142.50 up to 142.60. Something which can often be viewed: when a support/resistance level is broken market will overshoot by about 10-15 ticks. After a correction down to 142.23 the market made several attacks at the 142.60 level till the close pushing the HoD to 142.68.
The reaction to the GDP report came as surprise: The surprisingly negative German GDP report had already been released at 08:00 CET.
The 5-day volume profiles show 142.56 as PoC, for two profiles in a row.
Two levels of Resistance
• 142.73
• 142.93.
Three levels of Support
• 142.56 (2x)
• 141.88.
Daily volume profiles show a b-shaped distribution for yesterday and a p-shaped one for today. There are two distinct nodes: one around 142.00 and another one around 142.50 with a valley in between.
Looking at a combined profile from 2013-01-30 till today shows a profile with three distinct peaks. Most prominent around 142.50, one around 142.86 and another one around 142.00.
ESTX and DAX are down, while US markets show small up/down moves.
The last two days show abrupt turns in market direction. Looks almost like stop hunting "left and right". I had (mental) problems in the morning to switch from short to long.
So it is probably best to be without any bias. Since stock markets still look weak an up move in the bund is likely. The 142.86 mentioned above could be a target but that's a small up move. Most damaging would be an up move beyond 143.10 and then a reversal. OTOH a drop below 142.50 should send the market down to 142.00 maybe 141.88.
For the US markets there are four reports scheduled between 14:30 CET and 16:00 CET.
Don't know whether this LTRO repayment story will play a role tomorrow. Scheduled for 12:00 CET.
