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We found a short-term balance, two balancing days in row now, copying the lower line of the channel. We may be balancing some more tomorrow, open will tell. Value area (142.80-143.04) for range trading if we remain in balance.
Apart from the value area: RESISTANCE
142.94
143.14
Very low volume (down almost 50%) and below average range. An inside down day. Today's PoC (142.86) is below Friday's (143.00).
There were no news scheduled for today but a good part of the drop in volume must be attributed to the Chinese New Year Holidays in Asia. Celebrations continue tomorrow in China and Singapore. Have overlooked these Holidays.
Else there is not much to say about today; a slow going replica of Friday.
The 5-day volume profiles have changed a bit:
Two levels of Resistance
• 142.86(2x). This 5-day period and that of three weeks ago.
Three levels of Support
• 142.69
• 142.50
• 141.88.
Though calling the 142.86 level resistance level may not be justified: could just as well prove to be support.
In the daily chart a little rising wedge since last Tuesday can be seen, though the duration is a bit short for a rising wedge.
The PoCs of the daily volume profiles are 142.35 and 141.83 and still 144.00.
For tomorrow there are still no reports scheduled. I hope the market will be a little bit more dynamic than today.
The main levels are 142.50 and 143.30. If market drops to 142.50 I'll be looking for a long position. But if it drops down on high volume and fast I'll be careful.
Up there are some more levels: 143.30 ~ .40 and 143.70. An up move will probably stop there, maybe offering a second chance to get on board.
(note, the terms used here are from FT71, see his site for definitions)
Big Picture:
Still grinding away at the the POC (point of control) of the Jan balance area, with lower volume and range. Somewhat cloudy picture up here, but the latest balance profile as a whole is looking like a giant p-shape. By including only the ECB and after days the p-shape is even more pronounced, and the lower volume signifies that higher prices are cutting off activity after the ECB trend. Both balance days have been unchanged, so hard to call an overall attempted direction here.
To the downside is the POC from the ECB day, then the early Feb POC at 141.88. Quite possible for price to auction down there and find buyers, but the 142.67 CHVN is the first barrier. If this acts as resistance, likely to test down.
Yesterday:
Same as Friday, although the second auction higher did not reach the highs so the day is actually a weak trend down, on lower volume. I see a market in stalemate but in a weakening state. Profile is fairly toothy, poorly auctioned from 142.95 down. What is revealing is that the second auction higher made lower highs, and was rejected fairly rapidly. It appears that Fridays YPOC is now cheap to sellers. Value is drifting downwards., over-lapping.
Levels Up:
143.02 - small LVN and closing swing high. Bad for bulls if this finds sellers.
143.17 - CHVN and CLVN above at 143.20, both respected in the Jan balance area.
143.40 - middle of large CHVN area. Probable choppy price action here, not a great level.
Levels Down:
142.50 - POC since the 4th Feb trend
142.35 - POC from ECB day, also a CHVN.
141.88 - POC measured from 28th to early Feb. Possible destination for any strong move down.
Bunds have opened in range, at the top of the value area from yesterday. Watching 143.02 for possible early seller entry but expecting a test into the 143.17-20 area for a decent short setup.
Interestingly my stats are suggesting a positive day (based on location of open vs hi/lo/close/POC and yesterday characteristics) but the sample size is too small to trust. Odds of a lo touch are 33% by EOD.
A day not so different from the two previous ones. Just after the opening, the market shyly tried to go up then, after defining a rather small IB, explored the down side untill some reactive Buyer's appeared at 142.40. POC is at 142.57, close to market close (142.67) and lower from yesterday's. Volumes are slighly more important than yesterday but still on the low side. On a day basis, big volumes are divided in two, one in the 142.75 - 142.98 area, the other, the bigger, in the 142.45 - 142.60 area with a valley in between.
From there can be guessed resistances for tomorrow. Supports are at 142.40 and below I do not see much before 101.47, last week low.
The last three days we did not see follow through on the Seller's side and on the Buyer's side, only reactive interests.
142.40 level is about 38.2% retracement of last week rise. Such rather modest figure keeps intact potential for a higher market would the european stock markets resume their downtrend.
I redraw the dayly graph where I now see the Bund future in a downard channel (4 points of contact on the support oblique and five on the resistance oblique).
On the 4H graph, I see now the Bund future on the lower side of a rising channel (3 points of contact on the support oblique and 5 on the resistance oblique), MA 44 at 142.40 this afternoon being in support.
I think that the support oblique of such channel will hold and that the Bund may test the upper oblique of the channel in the second part of the week, around 143.40.
Slightly below average volume, average range. A down day. PoC (142.56) dropped below yesterday's.
Market started very slow, traded on low volume in a 20 tick range till about 11:00 CET (=05:00 EST). Then it started to drop in two swings down to its LoD (142.41) on high volume. Then again it moved sideways till 3 hours later (after stock and cash market closed) it moved up a bit.
The 5-day volume profiles show show 142.86 as PoC.
Three levels of Resistance
• 142.70
• 142.86
• 142.90.
Two levels of Support
• 142.50
• 141.88.
On the daily chart the little up trend since 2013-01-30 is still ok, but we need a new high now for it to stay ok.
The daily volume profile shows two distinct nodes: one around 142.83 (=VAH) and the other around 142.56, the daily PoC. The 14:00 CET bar has very high volume, but closed in its lower range. So it cannot be viewed as reversal bar.
Stock market show a slightly positive picture for today.
There are two major reports for tomorrow: At 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) Retail Sales and at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) Business Inventories may offer some guidance.
Don't know whether the ifo report due at 11:00 CET will have much influence.
The drop below the 142.50 level today was ok, but the idea to buy below this level did not work for me, because there was no good up signal.
Tomorrow we may close the valley between the two nodes at 142.83 and 142.56.
The 60-minute chart calls for a second low. A break below 142.35 should led the market down to the 142.20 area. And then maybe a reversal.
A move up to 142.80 in the first hour will look like a repetition of the last days and probably lead to a down drop.
A bit of a downtrend today with two distinct nodes of high volume on both ends with responsive sellers as well as buyers, low volume in the middle where the close is. We might be balancing tomorrow between the two protruding nodes. It will be important to watch rejection/acceptance in those areas.
Big Picture:
Small balance breakout yesterday, but no real follow through. Position is at the top of a good pullback, but lower volume and range imply trade facilitation is not occurring at a somewhat vulnerable position. Composite from the end of Jan is looking almost like a double distribution, with 142.25 being the deepest LVN here, so its a possible overshoot from a break of the 142.50 MCPOC. Second POC is still the 141.88 area, but that has been soundly rejected over the last couple of weeks so may act as support.
Still no excess on the high end on a day timeframe basis so the uptrend is intact until proven otherwise. Note European equity indices have yet to move away from their correction lows.
Yesterday:
A double distribution, with a quiet local-dominated morning and afternoon session broken up by a rapid stop run through the lows of the last two days. If this is only a stop run, then I expect price to at least return to the upper distribution and old POC at 142.78 to check value. The lack of activity after the stop run is suspicious and a little hard to read. It could represent a lack of interest (therefore higher prices are likely) but buyers did not step in yesterday to take advantage of these prices at all, not even testing the lower part of the LVN.
The ON session checked the top of the LVN within the first 30 minutes of closing, then found resistance at the POC, indicating the bottom distribution is possibly viewed as cheap to buyers.
In my experience, a double distribution day is re-auctioned the next day within the LVN if no news flow forces a change in value.
Today:
In general, expecting a re-test of the upper distribution then re-auction of the LVN created yesterday. Any evidence of higher than normal (or even normal) volume will invalidate this thesis and suggest potential range extension. Odds of tagging yesterdays high are low based on opening position.
As can be seen on the daily graph, the BUND is in a downnard channel and in a upward channel. It is yet to be seen the one the BUND will follow in the end of the week.
Today has been a down day with an increase of volumes if compared to the two previous days. From the opening the market went down, forming a narrow ID with a lower limit at 142.44. The 142.40 support did not hold long however and the future contract went down rather fast to 141.85 where reactive Buyers appeared and from early afternoon to the closing ranged between 141.80 and 142.20. The candlestick is therefore a red belt passer by.
Again, no follow through on Seller's side.
POC is at 142.04, lower than yesterday, a level visited very often last week. Volumes are concentrated in the lower part of the range, giving the day a b shape.
Below the support oblique, I can imagine that some reactive Buyers would appear on 2013 low (141.30).
As far as resistances, there are plenty, beginning with 142.50 then 142.70, 143.20 being the resistance of the rising channel and also the lower edge of ICHIMOKU cloud.
I was mistaken yesterday thinking that the market would go up and so I witnessed the market going down without doing anything, waiting for the rebound that never came.
I have reasons to believe that european stocks are very close to resume their move down and will therefore buy the Bund market if the support oblique of the rising channel holds.
