Average volume and average range. An up day. PoC is lower than yesterday's: 142.35 vs. 142.54.
Market rose from the open above yesterday's latest swing high and started to drop when stock/cash markets opened. It dropped below yesterday's low and then rose to its HoD (143.01) at 16:30, well above Tuesday's high. The rest of the day was spent drifting down into the close. The rise started at 13:30, well before the ECB press conference at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).
Two levels of Support
• 142.54 (5-day PoC)
The daily chart shows that the little up trend which started 2013-01-30 is still intact: market makes higher highs and higher lows.
The daily volume profile shows selling above the VAH of 142.72. Daily levels are 142.35 and 141.83 and 143.97.
I have added a 60-minute chart with a composite volume profile which starts at 2013-01-30 16:00. There are several nodes, but the two around 142.55 and 141.88 stand out. Between them there is a valley.
Stock markets moved up till US open: When these dropped ESTX and DAX started to drop too. The Euro nosedived, reacting to the rise in the bunds.
There are only two reports scheduled for tomorrow at 14:30 CET and 16:00 CET (=08:30 and 10:00 EST).
Stock markets still look weak and this should further drive up the bund future. If they recover it will lead to a decline in the bunds.
Market probably will be struggling to get up and above 143.10. OTOH today's 13:00 bar is a reversal bar (drop below Tuesday's PoC of 142.20). So a move down to/below 142.35 should be met with buying.
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Interesting, I did not note 143.10 as a level of interest apart from the general high-volume node, my HVN for the Jan balance period is 142.89. You are using DTN, correct?
I am considering shorts above the CHVN and small LVN at 143.14, if we assume the market is still attempting to develop balance after the big trend day on the 4th, then an extension further into the prior balance becomes progressively more difficult if a re-pricing of value is not in progress. Current balance is 142.50 and the lack of a VPOC shift higher yesterday implies weakness.
Pretty boring day though so far..
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To start with, the weekly candle is a bullish engulfing of last week with good volume.
POC of the week is 142.59, higher than last week (141.88).
Todays session has been a non directional day with reactive buyers and sellers at both ends of a limited range.
Many thanks to FGBL07 for its 143.10 resistance level given thursday evening.
On the daily graph, we can see that today's candle is a spinning top which knocks at the resistance oblique of the falling wedge. We also see that mid BB is below prices and that therefore target is upper BB (143.75), a target in accordance with falling wedge one (144).
On the second graph, also a daily one but with ICHIMOKU indicators we can see that the cloud was very thin last week, and that the market rose accordingly but that the week to come the cloud gets thicker and may oppose some resistance would the prices try to cross it. Chikou span is also still below the candle line and the cloud.
If the falling wedge target is met, it may very well be a reverse point, keeping in mind that the upper border of the cloud, at 144.09 may act as a resistance.
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is still rising and in support while MA 44 begins to rise as well. As previously written, as long as MA 23 rises and is below prices, the upper trend does continue. For those who like chart figures, can be seen a cup with handle with neck line at 142.90 and tarket around 144.10.
In a nutshell I think futures will next week visit the 143.70 level and 144 in extension where a reverse may happen.
Have a good week-end.
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