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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #101 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-07

Average volume and average range. An up day. PoC is lower than yesterday's: 142.35 vs. 142.54.

Market rose from the open above yesterday's latest swing high and started to drop when stock/cash markets opened. It dropped below yesterday's low and then rose to its HoD (143.01) at 16:30, well above Tuesday's high. The rest of the day was spent drifting down into the close. The rise started at 13:30, well before the ECB press conference at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST).

The 5-day volume profile shows the same PoC as yesterday.
Two levels of Resistance
• 142.73
• 142.94.
• (143.10)

Two levels of Support
• 142.54 (5-day PoC)
• 141.90.

The daily chart shows that the little up trend which started 2013-01-30 is still intact: market makes higher highs and higher lows.

The daily volume profile shows selling above the VAH of 142.72. Daily levels are 142.35 and 141.83 and 143.97.

I have added a 60-minute chart with a composite volume profile which starts at 2013-01-30 16:00. There are several nodes, but the two around 142.55 and 141.88 stand out. Between them there is a valley.

Stock markets moved up till US open: When these dropped ESTX and DAX started to drop too. The Euro nosedived, reacting to the rise in the bunds.

There are only two reports scheduled for tomorrow at 14:30 CET and 16:00 CET (=08:30 and 10:00 EST).

Stock markets still look weak and this should further drive up the bund future. If they recover it will lead to a decline in the bunds.

Market probably will be struggling to get up and above 143.10. OTOH today's 13:00 bar is a reversal bar (drop below Tuesday's PoC of 142.20). So a move down to/below 142.35 should be met with buying.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.02.2013-22.16.35.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.02.2013-22.16.06.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.02.2013-22.20.22.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-07.02.2013-22.21.30.png  
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  #102 (permalink)
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Good morning everybody.

On 30minutes seems there is forming a head and shoulders.
However I do not think bund will go up from here. and I will take only short position....

Buona giornata!

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  #103 (permalink)
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Interesting, I did not note 143.10 as a level of interest apart from the general high-volume node, my HVN for the Jan balance period is 142.89. You are using DTN, correct?

I am considering shorts above the CHVN and small LVN at 143.14, if we assume the market is still attempting to develop balance after the big trend day on the 4th, then an extension further into the prior balance becomes progressively more difficult if a re-pricing of value is not in progress. Current balance is 142.50 and the lack of a VPOC shift higher yesterday implies weakness.

Pretty boring day though so far..

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  #104 (permalink)
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Si, demasiado aburrido.

As the english say, TGIF, so I wish you a good week end.

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  #105 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
Si, demasiado aburrido.

As the english say, TGIF, so I wish you a good week end.

Buon WE a tutti

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  #106 (permalink)
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WEEKLY REVIEW

To start with, the weekly candle is a bullish engulfing of last week with good volume.

POC of the week is 142.59, higher than last week (141.88).

Todays session has been a non directional day with reactive buyers and sellers at both ends of a limited range.

Many thanks to FGBL07 for its 143.10 resistance level given thursday evening.

On the daily graph, we can see that today's candle is a spinning top which knocks at the resistance oblique of the falling wedge. We also see that mid BB is below prices and that therefore target is upper BB (143.75), a target in accordance with falling wedge one (144).

On the second graph, also a daily one but with ICHIMOKU indicators we can see that the cloud was very thin last week, and that the market rose accordingly but that the week to come the cloud gets thicker and may oppose some resistance would the prices try to cross it. Chikou span is also still below the candle line and the cloud.

If the falling wedge target is met, it may very well be a reverse point, keeping in mind that the upper border of the cloud, at 144.09 may act as a resistance.

On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is still rising and in support while MA 44 begins to rise as well. As previously written, as long as MA 23 rises and is below prices, the upper trend does continue. For those who like chart figures, can be seen a cup with handle with neck line at 142.90 and tarket around 144.10.

In a nutshell I think futures will next week visit the 143.70 level and 144 in extension where a reverse may happen.

Have a good week-end.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-w.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  
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  #107 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-04 - 2013-02-08

First a note about last Friday (2013-02-08)

Below average volume and well below average range. An up day. PoC (143.00) is up, and the VA sits above the VA of yesterday.

From the open the market rose above yesterday's high, dropped back, rose again at 13:00 to make a new high and then dropped to its LoD (142.62). After that it rose remarkably high till the close.

Below the VAL (142.81) there was buying.

Now to the week:

An up week, wider range than last week, but a bit less volume. PoC is 142.54, almost the same as two weeks ago (142.50).

The 5-day (toady = weekly) volume profile shows the following levels:

One level of Resistance
• 143.40.

Four levels of Support
• 142.87
• 142.54
• 142.50
• 141.90.

The little up trend in the daily chart (better seen in an hourly chart) is still ok.

The daily volume profiles show 142.35 and 141.83 as support, next resistance is around 144.00

I have added two composite profiles, one for the down trend since 2012-12-10 and one for the up trend since 2013-01-30. The former one shows 143.10 as PoC, the latter one 142.55.

In the down trend profile there is a peak between 143.30 - 143.40. And a distinct valley at 143.80.

Friday's daily bar is not conclusive: an up move on low volume and range is not encouraging. OTOH it may just be a pause in the up trend.


US stock markets have lost some steam, but still look positive while European markets made a strong down week. Looks like the markets start to move independently.

The next week there are not many reports scheduled, especially Monday and Tuesday are pretty void of them.

Monday mornings usually have clean moves, but I'll wait till the (European) stock markets open. They may give some guidance.

A down IB on moderate volume will make me look for longs. That 143.30 - 143.40 area will be resistance.

A down IB on high volume will make me mistrustful: maybe the market wants to drop. 142.54 should supply support.

In case of an up IB I'll look for a correction to enter long.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.02.2013-20.41.43.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.02.2013-14.25.59.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.02.2013-14.47.21.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.02.2013-20.51.33.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-10.02.2013-16.31.39.png  
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  #108 (permalink)
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PMA for February 11

We are in a channel up, slowly creeping towards LTF POC near 143,40. There is a thin area at 143.10-143.14 and might get rejected first and then filled in in the up move tomorrow.

SUPPORT
142.68
142.45
142.79

RESISTANCE
143.10-14 ???
143.35

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  #109 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
To start with, the weekly candle is a bullish engulfing of last week with good volume.

POC of the week is 142.59, higher than last week (141.88).

Todays session has been a non directional day with reactive buyers and sellers at both ends of a limited range.

Many thanks to FGBL07 for its 143.10 resistance level given thursday evening.

On the daily graph, we can see that today's candle is a spinning top which knocks at the resistance oblique of the falling wedge. We also see that mid BB is below prices and that therefore target is upper BB (143.75), a target in accordance with falling wedge one (144).

On the second graph, also a daily one but with ICHIMOKU indicators we can see that the cloud was very thin last week, and that the market rose accordingly but that the week to come the cloud gets thicker and may oppose some resistance would the prices try to cross it. Chikou span is also still below the candle line and the cloud.

If the falling wedge target is met, it may very well be a reverse point, keeping in mind that the upper border of the cloud, at 144.09 may act as a resistance.

On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is still rising and in support while MA 44 begins to rise as well. As previously written, as long as MA 23 rises and is below prices, the upper trend does continue. For those who like chart figures, can be seen a cup with handle with neck line at 142.90 and tarket around 144.10.

In a nutshell I think futures will next week visit the 143.70 level and 144 in extension where a reverse may happen.

Have a good week-end.


FGBL07 View Post
First a note about last Friday (2013-02-08)

Below average volume and well below average range. An up day. PoC (143.00) is up, and the VA sits above the VA of yesterday.

From the open the market rose above yesterday's high, dropped back, rose again at 13:00 to make a new high and then dropped to its LoD (142.62). After that it rose remarkably high till the close.

Below the VAL (142.81) there was buying.

Now to the week:

An up week, wider range than last week, but a bit less volume. PoC is 142.54, almost the same as two weeks ago (142.50).

The 5-day (toady = weekly) volume profile shows the following levels:

One level of Resistance
• 143.40.

Four levels of Support
• 142.87
• 142.54
• 142.50
• 141.90.

The little up trend in the daily chart (better seen in an hourly chart) is still ok.

The daily volume profiles show 142.35 and 141.83 as support, next resistance is around 144.00

I have added two composite profiles, one for the down trend since 2012-12-10 and one for the up trend since 2013-01-30. The former one shows 143.10 as PoC, the latter one 142.55.

In the down trend profile there is a peak between 143.30 - 143.40. And a distinct valley at 143.80.

Friday's daily bar is not conclusive: an up move on low volume and range is not encouraging. OTOH it may just be a pause in the up trend.


US stock markets have lost some steam, but still look positive while European markets made a strong down week. Looks like the markets start to move independently.

The next week there are not many reports scheduled, especially Monday and Tuesday are pretty void of them.

Monday mornings usually have clean moves, but I'll wait till the (European) stock markets open. They may give some guidance.

A down IB on moderate volume will make me look for longs. That 143.30 - 143.40 area will be resistance.

A down IB on high volume will make me mistrustful: maybe the market wants to drop. 142.54 should supply support.

In case of an up IB I'll look for a correction to enter long.



For sure you are right.

But I really do not understand... I see just occasion for a short entrance.
I watched 1/2/4h on bund, bobl, tbond, euro, stoxx, dax, not sure on sp500 but I see always the same: just a trap.


Boh...wait and see.

Buona serata.

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  #110 (permalink)
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terapiaintensiva View Post


For sure you are right.

But I really do not understand... I see just occasion for a short entrance.
I watched 1/2/4h on bund, bobl, tbond, euro, stoxx, dax, not sure on sp500 but I see always the same: just a trap.


Boh...wait and see.

Buona serata.

Add some charts and a few more more arguments and we have a fourth contributor.

And please stop making these full quotes. They add no information.

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