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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #91 (permalink)
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hadamkov View Post
Here is how I see the market:
We reached the previous POC and it was rejected (expected behaviour). Now we are back around the current POC. Preferred way is down, however there might be some consolidating aroung the POC, as usual.

Interesting zones:
SUPPORT
as yesterday

RESISTANCE
142.78
142.59
142.23-35 rather thinish area just below current VAH (that is where we could be balancing tomorrow).

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Happy trading.

I see the same.

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  #92 (permalink)
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short 142.36

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  #93 (permalink)
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terapiaintensiva View Post
short 142.36

Too early.

Second tranche 142.53

PMC 142.40

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  #94 (permalink)
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WAITING FOR GODOT

A rather calm day if compared to the previous ones. The market stayed within the Initial Balance all morning and had some fever during a couple of hours early afternoon. At 5.30 pm, result was a meagre 20 ticks up may be half a dozen more at 10 pm. POC is however at 142.62, above yesterday's 142.22

If compared with DAX and Stoxx drop, I feel that the Bund market is heavy and might be vulnerable would stok rebound on the second half of the week.

Plenty of statistics tomorrow together with Super Mario speech = volatility ahead.

On the dayli graph, we can see that the resistance oblique made a good job together with the mean average 20.

If the resistance is not broken tomorrow, I think that the BUND futures will explore the downside.

Support levels may be at 142.05 and 141.50 while resistance is at 142.95. Above such figure, target of the falling wedge, would the oblique be overcomed, is 143.70, level of upper bollinger band and of mean average 50.

Take care for tomorrow.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund.jpg  

Last edited by MARS; February 6th, 2013 at 04:20 PM.
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  #95 (permalink)
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As usual I do just intraday trading.
But in this case I will keep the short position till tomorrow.
I saw yesterday a strong rebound arriving on the dax and Euro/Usd so I thought to see the bund slide down today.
Not yet...
I hope tomorrow.
Let's see.


Ciao a tutti

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PMA for February 07

An uninteresting day. Balancing below previous quite distinct POC near 142.90, now forming a new value around 142.50. The thinish area below it may serve as a support. Buyers are trying hard to move the price up but they are just building value. We will see tomorrow.

Intersting zones can be seen on the chart, though the resistances might change into supports.

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  #97 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-02-06

Slightly below average volume, well below average range (5-day average). Though today's range corresponds to the long-term average. An up day, an inside day. PoC is 142.55: almost identical to the former resistance level of 142.50. A balanced day.

Market moved up right from the open, dropped heavily at around 9:30 CET without making a new low and then rose to its HoD at 14:30 CET. After that zig-zagged down and up till the close. Short term volatility was nasty, looking at a 30 minute chart the wicks seem designed "to kill you".

The 5-day volume Profile shows a PoC of 142.54.
Two levels of Resistance
• 142.90
• 143.30.

Two levels of Support
• 142.54
• 141.90.

The daily volume profiles show PoCs at 142.20 and 141.83, and 143.97.

If you look at an 1-hour chart then the little up trend since 2013-01-30 16:00 is still intact, though market looks struggling.

Looking at the 30-minute chart starting with Monday's low and yesterday's high market is contracting into a slightly upward tilted triangle.

Tomorrow the ECB meeting is due, the interest rate decision will be announced at 13:45 CET (=07:45 EST) No changes expected (a rate hike of 0.25 would be a real surprise...).

The interesting part will be the ECB press conference starting at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST). This is likely to cause some volatility.

ESTX and DAX nose-dived today, even the positive reports at 11:00 and 12:00 CET did not help. Only the up move in the US markets after their open stopped the down fall.

If ES continues to move up, it might take along ESTX and DAX.

Usually my best time is in the morning, but I have no idea for tomorrow morning. Might be a copy of today. The afternoon hopefully changes that.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-06.02.2013-22.07.36.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-06.02.2013-22.05.25.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-06.02.2013-22.30.06.png  
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FGBL07 View Post
Slightly below average volume, well below average range (5-day average). Though today's range corresponds to the long-term average. An up day, an inside day. PoC is 142.55: almost identical to the former resistance level of 142.50. A balanced day.

Market moved up right from the open, dropped heavily at around 9:30 CET without making a new low and then rose to its HoD at 14:30 CET. After that zig-zagged down and up till the close. Short term volatility was nasty, looking at a 30 minute chart the wicks seem designed "to kill you".

The 5-day volume Profile shows a PoC of 142.54.
Two levels of Resistance
• 142.90
• 143.30.

Two levels of Support
• 142.54
• 141.90.

The daily volume profiles show PoCs at 142.20 and 141.83, and 143.97.

If you look at an 1-hour chart then the little up trend since 2013-01-30 16:00 is still intact, though market looks struggling.

Looking at the 30-minute chart starting with Monday's low and yesterday's high market is contracting into a slightly upward tilted triangle.

Tomorrow the ECB meeting is due, the interest rate decision will be announced at 13:45 CET (=07:45 EST) No changes expected (a rate hike of 0.25 would be a real surprise...).

The interesting part will be the ECB press conference starting at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST). This is likely to cause some volatility.

ESTX and DAX nose-dived today, even the positive reports at 11:00 and 12:00 CET did not help. Only the up move in the US markets after their open stopped the down fall.

If ES continues to move up, it might take along ESTX and DAX.

Usually my best time is in the morning, but I have no idea for tomorrow morning. Might be a copy of today. The afternoon hopefully changes that.



Ready for the short?

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  #99 (permalink)
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Market opened at 142.62, within yesterday's value, shily tried to go up than passed down the open level and glided to 142.15 a shade below yesterday's low (142.22) . Just before the US figures were released and Mario's speech, the Bund future begun to regain the lost ground, later passed up the open level and climbed a shade more than tuedsay's high (143 vs 142.94). At 17h30 the futures were a bit lower than the today's high and this evening the market is ending about 10 ticks from the opening level.

POC is ending at 142.78 higher than yesterday's 142.50 but was at 142.54 at 5.30 pm.

Many trading opportnities today but at the end of the day, the market has not changed much from yesterday.

On the dayli graph we can see that the BUND future is close to the oblique resistance of the falling wedge and that the shades of the candlestick are rather important if compared to the true corpse, reflecting market uncertainty.

On the 4H graph, we can see that the oblique stopped the rise of the BUND future and that MA 23 actually supported the prices and is on the rise.

The market is therefore locked between the resistance oblique (about 142.95 tomorrow) and the MA 23 (about 142.40 tomorrow).

Either tomorrow is a very qiet day with the market broadly ranging between these two levels or it escapes by one side and bigger trading opportunities may arise.

Gutte nacht.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund-4h.jpg  

Last edited by MARS; February 7th, 2013 at 05:20 PM.
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PMA for February 08


Neutral day, today, one of many these days. Large extensions from both ends, responsive sellers at the top, no responsive buyers, just initiative this time.
We are forming a rising channel so I moved my support zones up a bit.
We keep on balancing about previous POC and also a very LTF POC.

Interesting zones:
SUPPORT
141.98
142.23
142.45

RESISTANCE
142.68
142.79
142.99

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