NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





German Bund Traders


Discussion in Treasury Notes and Bonds

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one grahamg with 6 posts (12 thanks)
    2. looks_two cowjuice with 4 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Yuri57 with 4 posts (3 thanks)
    4. looks_4 DarthDion with 3 posts (2 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one kkfx with 5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two joeyk with 4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 isildur1 with 3 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 grahamg with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 33,428 views
    2. thumb_up 47 thanks given
    3. group 38 followers
    1. forum 43 posts
    2. attach_file 2 attachments




 
 

German Bund Traders

 
yuak
tel aviv, israel
 
Posts: 7 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 0


Yuri57 View Post
I had only 1 trade today

hi Yuri,
i'm trying to day-trade the bund for a while, without any major success...
i tried different methods, which have common basis: estimating fair value, and pair-trading.
during my tests, i tried some "ema's logics" and the best of them ended "break even" , i found the bund very very choppy, hence "killing" all my logics.
my question, regarding your trade example, how did you avoid enter other trades at that day? (any setup that i'm testing with this data makes more trades, which lowers my profit...) ,do you use addional data ?

(i dont expect your answer to uncover your system, but maybe i'll gain a new ways of thinkings...)
thanks ahead,


Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
 
 
 
Yuri57's Avatar
 Yuri57 
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Windows 95
Trading: YM
Posts: 286 since Feb 2013
Thanks Given: 72
Thanks Received: 108


yuak View Post
hi Yuri,
i'm trying to day-trade the bund for a while, without any major success...
i tried different methods, which have common basis: estimating fair value, and pair-trading.
during my tests, i tried some "ema's logics" and the best of them ended "break even" , i found the bund very very choppy, hence "killing" all my logics.
my question, regarding your trade example, how did you avoid enter other trades at that day? (any setup that i'm testing with this data makes more trades, which lowers my profit...) ,do you use addional data ?

(i dont expect your answer to uncover your system, but maybe i'll gain a new ways of thinkings...)
thanks ahead,

Hard to tell. Technicals are one thing, if you take every trade that's not good. This is when gut feel comes into play and you select which technically sound plays you want to play.

Thanked by:
 
meow
Bangkok+Thailand
 
Posts: 47 since Nov 2012
Thanks Given: 64
Thanks Received: 14


Anyone here trading/scalping Bund using bid/ask analysis?

 
 
cowjuice's Avatar
 cowjuice 
Australia, NSW
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: DAX, HSI, Gold
Posts: 31 since Aug 2012
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 11

In the process of doing a heap of back testing as my results on the bund have been a little inconsistent.

Lately, the Bund (in my opinion) has not been playing ball.. not trending.. doesn't seem to the have the rhythm it once did which is making if difficult to day trade.

Is it just me or are others having the same challenge ?

Happy to take any help on offer ......

Thanks team !

 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 grahamg   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 115 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 108


meow View Post
Anyone here trading/scalping Bund using bid/ask analysis?

Bid/Ask analysis? You mean reading the bids and offers to trade off the order flow? Or TA on the Bid/Asks.

I have been trading the order flow purely off the DOM for 6 months now. At the point now that I don't feel I'm pulling up a chair to take 3 hours of abuse. It did require some external assistance to get me to this point as 4 months in I was about to quit. Keep at it as it totally doable I think.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter
 
 
cowjuice's Avatar
 cowjuice 
Australia, NSW
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: DAX, HSI, Gold
Posts: 31 since Aug 2012
Thanks Given: 20
Thanks Received: 11

Hi Graham,

It sounds like you were where I am right now... doing my head in you might say
Are you able to offer any specific guidance / advice on what got you over that hill ?.. that would be muchly appreciated !!!

Cheers.

 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 grahamg   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 115 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 108


cowjuice View Post
Hi Graham,

It sounds like you were where I am right now... doing my head in you might say
Are you able to offer any specific guidance / advice on what got you over that hill ?.. that would be muchly appreciated !!!

Cheers.

I emailed you but since I am perpetually seeing numbers flash even when trying to dose off on the couch here I'm back at it haha. Think i have got over the crest at least of the hill. As i said.. no longer intimidated by the goals set out in each trading session of taking trades that make sense. Biggest factors for me were

- repetitive reviews pointing out trades that didn't make sense and how to correct them. No rocket science taking trades that make sense. Don't jump in front of the train.. don't chase.. work orders where it makes sense based on the order flow. ie make sure you're buy or sell is supported by someone else doing it on a big scale that has already stopped the market. That is the art, recognising the size coming in. No BS is good for that so I highly recommend watching everything he has to offer, and doing a webinar so you can drill him with questions.

- my shift has been that instead of spending the trading session trying to make sense of what is going on and take pokes in the dark.. i am much more confident knowing what I'm looking for. This only comes with screen time and constant review. Where do you take a trade.. why?.. was there volume supporting your decision.. were you too early acting on that volume.. too late..? try do better each time. To cut down on my amateur attempts at catching turns I was limited to only a few bullets to fire each session. This taught me a lot and made me focus ever more. Now I am being to selective knowing exactly what I want but realising its never ideal, so have to do the opposite and take more trades.

Thats the gist of it.. constantly having a go, then correcting path every so slightly each session. Coupled with screen time it is starting to feel like its coming together. No secret other than recognising that size trade and timing your actions on it. OH and most importantly managing your risk reward.. like we all hear.. but gotta make your average win (in bund) > 4 and average loss < 3.. shooting for probability of 50% minimum. Sounds easy.. but isn't. Still a couple months to go before I reckon I will be trading well enough to walk into a prop firm and get 'em out and say.. hire me!

Not something I think I could do as a casual attempt either.. set aside a few months and make sure in as good a state to focus for a few hours of the trading session. Then do review when refreshed also. In between that means chilling out. Treating it like this has given me biggest improvement. Wish we were like the matrix and could just download the 'how to scalp' program.

EDIT; I could still fail yet - but this approach just makes sense. No shortcuts. Pure effort and focus. Later on it becomes effortless but its a skill to be learnt.. and probably one of the hardest out there unless you're a freak.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter
 
 leinster 
Brussels / Dublin
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: Stdev + 2
Posts: 468 since Jun 2010
Thanks Given: 844
Thanks Received: 595

Hi,

New to bond / bund trading but which products are you using to trade this ?

Im looking for non future based cash based 10 year bund or 10 year AAA european bonds.

Can you list the products that i can lookup to trade (am with Interactive brokers but most i have seen are etf's pretending to be bonds).

Im looking to hedge some risk i have on (my own mortgage) and given the noise today i want to look into hedging.

Thanks.

 
joeyk
Australia
 
Posts: 24 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 14
Thanks Received: 89


meow View Post
Anyone here trading/scalping Bund using bid/ask analysis?

I scalp ZN and ZB using orderflow pretty much taught by John Grady. I put in the work and took it all to the next level.

I look at the bund and ES for correlation too.

Heres my time line before i started to know whats going on.

January to March. Looked at charts and order flow. Probably 50/50 and I was improving but still losing over all.

April I looked at only order flow and lost again at the end of the month.

May I broke even and was looking at orderflow 80% of the time

June I made some money and was looking at order flow 80% of the time

July I killed it with 4 losing days.

I can consistently read it decent now. Currently i am profitable 80% of the days. So i guess it works. I traded every day for 6-7 hours, journalled every day and also visualized every day. O I also screen record my trading sessions for review. I have a library of trades such as Momentum trades and Fade trades. I add to it. Seriously i don't think i could of become reading order flow that good if it wasn't for the training i put in, so you must do it.

Im just at crossroads now whether to continue trading out rights or start to spread trade. Big dilemma for me right now.

 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 grahamg   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 115 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 108



joeyk View Post

...

Im just at crossroads now whether to continue trading out rights or start to spread trade. Big dilemma for me right now.

Why switch it up if its working eh? Tops to you for nailing the order flow. I started Jan also after spending December studying Johns webinars. Pretty similar timeline though I needed some extra help from a prop trader.

Where you at?

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter

 



Last Updated on December 13, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts