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German Bund Traders
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German Bund Traders

  #11 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
tel aviv, israel
 
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Yuri57 View Post
I had only 1 trade today

hi Yuri,
i'm trying to day-trade the bund for a while, without any major success...
i tried different methods, which have common basis: estimating fair value, and pair-trading.
during my tests, i tried some "ema's logics" and the best of them ended "break even" , i found the bund very very choppy, hence "killing" all my logics.
my question, regarding your trade example, how did you avoid enter other trades at that day? (any setup that i'm testing with this data makes more trades, which lowers my profit...) ,do you use addional data ?

(i dont expect your answer to uncover your system, but maybe i'll gain a new ways of thinkings...)
thanks ahead,

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  #12 (permalink)
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yuak View Post
hi Yuri,
i'm trying to day-trade the bund for a while, without any major success...
i tried different methods, which have common basis: estimating fair value, and pair-trading.
during my tests, i tried some "ema's logics" and the best of them ended "break even" , i found the bund very very choppy, hence "killing" all my logics.
my question, regarding your trade example, how did you avoid enter other trades at that day? (any setup that i'm testing with this data makes more trades, which lowers my profit...) ,do you use addional data ?

(i dont expect your answer to uncover your system, but maybe i'll gain a new ways of thinkings...)
thanks ahead,

Hard to tell. Technicals are one thing, if you take every trade that's not good. This is when gut feel comes into play and you select which technically sound plays you want to play.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Bangkok+Thailand
 
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Anyone here trading/scalping Bund using bid/ask analysis?

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  #14 (permalink)
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Mixed Bag...

In the process of doing a heap of back testing as my results on the bund have been a little inconsistent.

Lately, the Bund (in my opinion) has not been playing ball.. not trending.. doesn't seem to the have the rhythm it once did which is making if difficult to day trade.

Is it just me or are others having the same challenge ?

Happy to take any help on offer ......

Thanks team !

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  #15 (permalink)
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meow View Post
Anyone here trading/scalping Bund using bid/ask analysis?

Bid/Ask analysis? You mean reading the bids and offers to trade off the order flow? Or TA on the Bid/Asks.

I have been trading the order flow purely off the DOM for 6 months now. At the point now that I don't feel I'm pulling up a chair to take 3 hours of abuse. It did require some external assistance to get me to this point as 4 months in I was about to quit. Keep at it as it totally doable I think.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #16 (permalink)
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Hi Graham,

It sounds like you were where I am right now... doing my head in you might say
Are you able to offer any specific guidance / advice on what got you over that hill ?.. that would be muchly appreciated !!!

Cheers.

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  #17 (permalink)
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cowjuice View Post
Hi Graham,

It sounds like you were where I am right now... doing my head in you might say
Are you able to offer any specific guidance / advice on what got you over that hill ?.. that would be muchly appreciated !!!

Cheers.

I emailed you but since I am perpetually seeing numbers flash even when trying to dose off on the couch here I'm back at it haha. Think i have got over the crest at least of the hill. As i said.. no longer intimidated by the goals set out in each trading session of taking trades that make sense. Biggest factors for me were

- repetitive reviews pointing out trades that didn't make sense and how to correct them. No rocket science taking trades that make sense. Don't jump in front of the train.. don't chase.. work orders where it makes sense based on the order flow. ie make sure you're buy or sell is supported by someone else doing it on a big scale that has already stopped the market. That is the art, recognising the size coming in. No BS is good for that so I highly recommend watching everything he has to offer, and doing a webinar so you can drill him with questions.

- my shift has been that instead of spending the trading session trying to make sense of what is going on and take pokes in the dark.. i am much more confident knowing what I'm looking for. This only comes with screen time and constant review. Where do you take a trade.. why?.. was there volume supporting your decision.. were you too early acting on that volume.. too late..? try do better each time. To cut down on my amateur attempts at catching turns I was limited to only a few bullets to fire each session. This taught me a lot and made me focus ever more. Now I am being to selective knowing exactly what I want but realising its never ideal, so have to do the opposite and take more trades.

Thats the gist of it.. constantly having a go, then correcting path every so slightly each session. Coupled with screen time it is starting to feel like its coming together. No secret other than recognising that size trade and timing your actions on it. OH and most importantly managing your risk reward.. like we all hear.. but gotta make your average win (in bund) > 4 and average loss < 3.. shooting for probability of 50% minimum. Sounds easy.. but isn't. Still a couple months to go before I reckon I will be trading well enough to walk into a prop firm and get 'em out and say.. hire me!

Not something I think I could do as a casual attempt either.. set aside a few months and make sure in as good a state to focus for a few hours of the trading session. Then do review when refreshed also. In between that means chilling out. Treating it like this has given me biggest improvement. Wish we were like the matrix and could just download the 'how to scalp' program.

EDIT; I could still fail yet - but this approach just makes sense. No shortcuts. Pure effort and focus. Later on it becomes effortless but its a skill to be learnt.. and probably one of the hardest out there unless you're a freak.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #18 (permalink)
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Which products

Hi,

New to bond / bund trading but which products are you using to trade this ?

Im looking for non future based cash based 10 year bund or 10 year AAA european bonds.

Can you list the products that i can lookup to trade (am with Interactive brokers but most i have seen are etf's pretending to be bonds).

Im looking to hedge some risk i have on (my own mortgage) and given the noise today i want to look into hedging.

Thanks.

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  #19 (permalink)
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meow View Post
Anyone here trading/scalping Bund using bid/ask analysis?

I scalp ZN and ZB using orderflow pretty much taught by John Grady. I put in the work and took it all to the next level.

I look at the bund and ES for correlation too.

Heres my time line before i started to know whats going on.

January to March. Looked at charts and order flow. Probably 50/50 and I was improving but still losing over all.

April I looked at only order flow and lost again at the end of the month.

May I broke even and was looking at orderflow 80% of the time

June I made some money and was looking at order flow 80% of the time

July I killed it with 4 losing days.

I can consistently read it decent now. Currently i am profitable 80% of the days. So i guess it works. I traded every day for 6-7 hours, journalled every day and also visualized every day. O I also screen record my trading sessions for review. I have a library of trades such as Momentum trades and Fade trades. I add to it. Seriously i don't think i could of become reading order flow that good if it wasn't for the training i put in, so you must do it.

Im just at crossroads now whether to continue trading out rights or start to spread trade. Big dilemma for me right now.

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  #20 (permalink)
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joeyk View Post

...

Im just at crossroads now whether to continue trading out rights or start to spread trade. Big dilemma for me right now.

Why switch it up if its working eh? Tops to you for nailing the order flow. I started Jan also after spending December studying Johns webinars. Pretty similar timeline though I needed some extra help from a prop trader.

Where you at?

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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