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Bond "Bubble" discussion 2012
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Bond "Bubble" discussion 2012

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Bond "Bubble" discussion 2012

My research this weekend has been focused on Bonds/Treasuries U.S. and Bernanke's magic wand... Throughout the crisis and still all through 2011 there have been predictions of a pending collapse , bad calls from big names and they were all wrong or at least early, now Schiller has gone so far as to say that the 29 year bull in bonds is in a bubble U.S. Bond Market May Be in ?Bubble,? Yale?s Shiller Says - Bloomberg and we all know how bubbles can chew you up and spit you out and so I'd like to develop a long term position against but also try to get a better understanding of the shorter term risks and see what others have to say ....


It appears that from reading through some of the outlooks for 2012 from the likes of Goldman Sachs and others that they are leaning towards a bullish outcome in equities, with the elections coming and hints of possible improved outlooks for next quarter from companies, but with inflation pressures non existent and no signs of a bottom in housing market as expectations are for recent increased activity to fade , and Bernanke stating that interest rates will remain low through mid 2013 , Europe still in shambles and Greece still a huge problem, that leaves "QE3" still a possibility as well, so those are some concerns against the risk of being early so I was wondering what others are thinking and what trades if any are on or being considered etc...

But just can't shake the feeling that one of these days , the safe haven if one exists will not be where everyone is accustomed to running to, like to have a piece of the action in place....

Thoughts?

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Decision Point : Long-Bond Yield: How Low Can It Go? - Chart Spotlight

Indicator At 0.2% Offers Clues To Direction Of Bonds, Stocks And Commodities | Bonds | Minyanville.com

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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...

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"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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Here are 3 sites I reference in regard to Treasuries and the credit markets.

I recommend them highly.

E-piphany

PIMCO | Home

Sober Look

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Bonds Turning Down From Top of Channel - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial


http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/charting-a-potential-break-in-bond-fund-ief-and-tlt/

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Last edited by GridKing; January 21st, 2012 at 05:59 AM.
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Trying to pick a top in the bonds is like trying to pick a bottom in natural gas.
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Trying to pick a top in the bonds is like trying to pick a bottom in natural gas.
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Not "picking a top", it's a discussion thread that will most likely last a while with interest rates pegged to mid 2013 , we'll have to see what happens with equities at resistance as well , but noticing divergences that could return to proper inverse relationship ... also don't agree that natural gas, is similar to thinking that there will be an endless supply of lending at 2% -ish to U.S. .....

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time


picked up some long dated 2013 and 2014 options on TBT when thread started, moving nicely but may cash in and look for another entry if equities top out over next several days .... see what happens with Greece to as creditors and Europe seem to be unable to agree on interest rates.... see what happens....

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Fed To Detail Officials' Interest-Rate Forecasts

-- Fed to detail when 17 officials see first rate rise, from 2012-2016

-- Fed to disclose officials' individual rate forecasts through 2014

-- Fed won't disclose identity of officials' interest rate forecasts


Dow Jones: Fed To Detail Officials' Interest-Rate Forecasts

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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