Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Nice drop today with the meeting notes release from the Fed. I thought about taking some profits off the table after scaling into a ZN short over the last week but we might see a bit of a sell-off next week depending on employment numbers for March. Maybe the market isn't entirely convinced QE3 is off the table and still giving it a 50/50?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I've started scaling into a SHORT position on ZN that will be a longer-term trade that I'll start to unwind as 10-year rates approach 3.5% - hopefully later this year. I am betting that an improving (albeit slowly) economy will put and end to lingering hopes of QE3 at some point and that prices will start heading lower once the Fed stops their efforts to flatten the yield curve with op twist (due end of June), etc.
I don't have a crystal ball but it seems like we are fairly close to a floor on the 10-year with yields around 2.2% and core inflation at the same level... A black swan event (or combination of events) could push rates back to a century low of 1.7% but to me that would seem to present a great opportunity to scale into the trade since you can quantify your downside (one of the tails is capped). Real rates can go into negative territory but how much?
Timing of course if tricky but as long as you roll the contracts the right way and have a stomach for the potential DD then I think this is a good opp. I also need to look into ZB to see if I should incorporate into this strategy?
BTW, do you have a reference site where you look up/confirm DV01's for different contracts or do you calc on your own?
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
Maybe summer will be ripe , see if get's another leg up and after equities correction?
Monthly
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter