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zb daily
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zb daily

  #451 (permalink)
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Technical analysis of this trade:

Big picture ZB view. Notice the strong s/r level at 145'30. Also, here you can see that the rally in ZB started at approximately the same time as the sell off in stocks did (early Oct):
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Here is a 4hr view of ZB. You can see that we have been respecting our uptrend line and the 200ma. We have repeatedly bounced off of the 145'30 level over the last month while staying in a narrow range for the most part. The uptrend strength of bonds has been stronger than the downtrend strength in stocks imo. The pink line below is the monthly VWAP and played a part in my decision to trade ZB instead of one of the other bonds today:
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ZB didn't blast through the monthly vwap right away like the other bonds did today. I believe this is due to the very pronounced 145'30 s/r level. The ZB is the longest term bond and it seems to be a bit slower moving than the other ones. That's fine with me, because it allowed me to get in with a bit better price than if I had used a shorter term bond. So the delay in the move relative to the other bonds combined with the potential for an explosive move past the 145'30 level made me pick ZB.
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You can see that prices took off right at noon MT when the fed rate decision came out. Also, the gains held up nicely. ZB wobbled a bit more in the first couple hours after the rate decision, but I was confident that this was due to the strong s/r level it had to deal with relative the other bonds.

Also, we seem to be right above a long-term, high volume range, so everything is lined up quite nicely here.

I think we're gonna blast off once we get all of the earnings and econ stats out of the way this week. I expect bonds to move higher for the next couple weeks at least. Target for this trade is going to be above the previous swing high at about 149'10. If the trend remains productive I may try to get in on the dips all the way up to around 154 where there is a long term, high volume level.

I'm eager to hear if others are taking this trade or some variation of it. Let me know your thoughts.

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  #452 (permalink)
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follow up on ZB trade

ZB exploded off of the 145'30 level nicely on Thursday but sold off back to that level today. I exited my trade at 146'29 due to a rule I have about taking profits quick if something moves faster than I initially anticipated. I think we are going to need some weakness in equities next week to get it going with some momentum. Stocks were not that impressed with the good non-farm employment change number we had today so, for stocks, I expect volume and volatility to contract and then for a sharp sell-off within a week. If the risk-on/weak dollar theme continues next week I am going to switch my focus to currencies.

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Last edited by LittleFinger; February 1st, 2019 at 10:38 PM.
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  #453 (permalink)
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Good stuff keep it coming , will join you in the near future

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  #454 (permalink)
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zb weekly

hi

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zb daily-zb-03-19-weekly-2019_06-11_47_02-am-.png  
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  #455 (permalink)
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Hello,

Think we can push higher from here? I got long again today. ZN this time. My last long attempt from this area.

Losing faith a bit here though. Stocks look like they are back in endless up-trickle mode.

ZB isn't respecting the 4hr 200ma as well as ZN. It looks like we are still bouncing along in the 145 area waiting for a breakdown of stocks. Can bonds keep their patience though?

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  #456 (permalink)
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Added to my ZN position at 122. Seeing more short than long volume in stocks. Probably gonna tip over here.

Also I was wondering what methods people are using to calculate risk on their bond trades. They were giving me a little trouble due to the fractions, so I made a spreadsheet. It's super basic, but it works for me:

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  #457 (permalink)
Zb Trader
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30min zb chart

hi

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zb daily-zb-03-19-30-minute-2019_02_07-11_16_41-am-.png  
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  #458 (permalink)
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LittleFinger View Post
Added to my ZN position at 122. Seeing more short than long volume in stocks. Probably gonna tip over here.


Good call.
What do you normally look at to trade bonds?


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  #459 (permalink)
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ElChacal View Post
Good call.
What do you normally look at to trade bonds?

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Well I don't trade bonds all the time, but have been interested in them lately because of the strong uptrend they've started since stocks started selling off.

I don't have a complete understanding of all the fundamental factors that can influence their price, so I have mostly been watching the recent correlation with stocks.

I watch how bonds move in relation to stocks in real time during the trading day. If the ES just had a big price move up on the 5m, did ZN show an inverse move? If their was a strong inverse move in ZN with some good volume then I believe the correlation is strong and will be looking for ES moves to predict ZN/ZB/ZF/ZT moves.

I want the chart to look good for the trade anyway based on typical TA techniques. The correlation just adds a degree of confidence to the trade.

I like trading the bonds instead of just trading the ES, RTY, or NQ because I can use less leverage and the bonds have pretty low volatility inraday which makes it pretty easy to place stops and have tight risk control.

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